I'm skeptical of Ohio's PVI shifting dramatically.
It isn't. This is an outlier election, as much "status quo vs. anti-establishment" as it is "left vs. right." The status quo ain't good for Ohio.
Ohio's unemployment rate is the same of Texas. It lags ever so slightly on median income, but the idea that Ohio has been hit harder than say, Florida, is a fever dream.
Total unemployment rates are misleading. The question is, what jobs have been lost in the past, and what jobs are being created in the present? .NET development jobs in Columbus don't help a former auto worker get back on his feet. Hotel hospitality jobs in Athens don't help former coal workers keep their previous standard of living.
People move to the Sunbelt for jobs in the new economy. There are new economy jobs aplenty in the the Rust Belt (I have one of them), but that doesn't help those from the old economy.
