YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA (user search)
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  YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA (search mode)
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Author Topic: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA  (Read 10816 times)
dspNY
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,802
United States


« on: October 08, 2016, 08:01:49 AM »
« edited: October 08, 2016, 08:04:10 AM by dspNY »

Updating this: All the states in gray/light blue/light red on October 7. Numbers rounded off

National lead: Clinton 4.79%

Light blue:

VA: Clinton 50, Trump 42
CO: Clinton 49, Trump 42
MI: Clinton 49, Trump 43
MN: Clinton 49, Trump 43
NH: Clinton 48, Trump 43
PA: Clinton 48, Trump 45
NC: Clinton 48, Trump 45
WI: Clinton 47, Trump 44
FL: Clinton 48, Trump 46
IA: Clinton 46, Trump 44

Gray/tossups:

NV: Clinton 47, Trump 45
OH: Clinton 47, Trump 46 (Clinton actually leads by 0.5%, 46.6-46.1%)
GA: Clinton 47, Trump 47 (Clinton actually leads by 0.4%, 46.9-46.5%)

Light red:

MS: Trump 49, Clinton 45
AZ: Trump 49, Clinton 42
IN: Trump 48, Clinton 41
SC: Trump 50, Clinton 43

(Personal note): I like this daily tracker, think it has a legit methodology and should be included in the 538 model
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dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,802
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2016, 07:21:44 AM »

(Personal note): I like this daily tracker, think it has a legit methodology and should be included in the 538 model

Actually, the results in most states are so similar to the margins that 538 predicts that I suspect YouGov uses the 538 predictions to help calibrate their model, because the fit is generally just as good in lightly-polled states as in heavily-polled states, which you wouldn't expect from an entirely independent model.

So I think 538 using these results-- which again, aren't actually a poll-- would be redundant...

That's possible...here are the numbers today:

National: Clinton 48.5%, Trump 43.3%, Johnson 4.9%, Stein 2.0%

Safe Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME (no district breakdown though), MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA

Safe Republican states: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MO, MT, NE (no district breakdown though), ND, OK, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

Lean Democratic (light blue)

NH: Clinton 49, Trump 41
MN: Clinton 49, Trump 42
MI: Clinton 49, Trump 42
CO: Clinton 49, Trump 42
WI: Clinton 48, Trump 44
IA: Clinton 47, Trump 43
FL: Clinton 49, Trump 46
PA: Clinton 48, Trump 45
NC: Clinton 48, Trump 45
OH: Clinton 47, Trump 45 (moved from tossup)
NV: Clinton 46, Trump 44 (moved from tossup)

Tossups

GA: Clinton 47, Trump 46

Lean Republican (pink states)

MS: Trump 49, Clinton 45
AZ: Trump 49, Clinton 42
SC: Trump 50, Clinton 43
TX: Trump 50, Clinton 42 (moved from safe Republican)
IN: Trump 49, Clinton 41

Maine-2, Nebraska-2 (my own analysis based off this tracker).

Obama won Maine-2 by 8% in 2012 and the state by 15.3%. Clinton currently leads Maine by 9.6% in this tracker, a 6% dropoff from 2012. Assuming the vote cuts the way we've seen it cutting, ME-2 is a TOSSUP with a very marginal lean to Clinton, if any.

Romney won Nebraska-2 by 7% in 2012 and the state by 21.8%. Trump currently leads Nebraska by 13.9% in this tracker, an 8% dropoff from 2012. Assuming the vote cuts the way we've seen it cutting, NE-2 is also a TOSSUP with a very marginal lean to Clinton (Pence is going to Omaha in his revamped schedule)
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dspNY
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,802
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2016, 01:16:01 PM »

After some meandering and a crawl towards Trump, Clinton spikes to a 6% national lead. GA, PA, IA and NV turn blue. TX, LA, and SC turn pink again.

Safe Dem: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME (including ME-1), MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA

Lean Dem:

CO: Clinton 48.2, Trump 41.1
FL: Clinton 48.4, Trump 45.4
GA: Clinton 46.9, Trump 44.4
IA: Clinton 46.0, Trump 43.2
MI: Clinton 48.6, Trump 41.9
MN: Clinton 48.6, Trump 41.3
NV: Clinton 46.4, Trump 42.3
NH: Clinton 47.5, Trump 40.6
NC: Clinton 48.0, Trump 44.0
OH: Clinton 47.7, Trump 44.0
PA: Clinton 47.0, Trump 44.5
WI: Clinton 48.8, Trump 42.2

Lean Republican:

AZ: Trump 47.0, Clinton 42.5
MS: Trump 47.7, Clinton 45.4
SC: Trump 48.4, Clinton 43.0
TX: Trump 49.0, Clinton 42.0
LA: Trump 49.6, Clinton 41.9

Safe Republican: AL, AK, AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MO, NE (including NE-1 and NE-3), ND, OK, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

Tossups:

ME-2: Clinton 45.6, Trump 44.2
NE-2: Trump 45.3, Clinton 44.2
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