|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 03, 2020, 03:21:41 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 Print
Author Topic: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA  (Read 9346 times)
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 05, 2016, 07:15:30 am »
« edited: October 05, 2016, 08:09:55 am by HillOfANight »

https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/783640247070560256
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/783641151920300032
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/03/election-model-methodology/

It's a mix of polls and "analysis"

Clinton’s lead:
National +4

MI +5
CO +5
NH +4
WI +3
NC +2
FL +2
PA +2
NV +2
IA +1
OH +1
GA TIE
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2016, 07:17:53 am »

Yeah, no.

But "it's another data point(s)"
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,348
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2016, 07:22:27 am »

Isn't this a 50-state poll? At least it's more realistic than anything Google or Reuters has released.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2016, 07:24:36 am »

Isn't this a 50-state poll? At least it's more realistic than anything Google or Reuters has released.

I'm not sure what this is... it seems a bit like a 50 state poll, but releasing the data in dribs and drabs
Logged
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2016, 07:28:37 am »

Isn't this a 50-state poll? At least it's more realistic than anything Google or Reuters has released.

I'm not sure what this is... it seems a bit like a 50 state poll, but releasing the data in dribs and drabs

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/783643089214767106

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Whatever that means... They have a detailed methodology I haven't read yet.
Logged
BlueSwan
blueswan
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,445
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2016, 07:54:55 am »

That data is....weird.
Logged
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2016, 08:12:23 am »

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/03/election-model-methodology/

They predicted 4% in 2012 which was pretty spot on, and their September 2012 data only missed NC/NH. Their October 2012 data only missed NC.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,609
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2016, 08:57:00 am »

If Clinton is ahead 4-5 in Florida, and 2-3 in NC, then a tie in Georgia is not a very surprising result.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,613
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2016, 09:07:02 am »

either WI and PA are much closer than thought or georgia is...both at the same time won't happen i think.
Logged
Wiz in Wis
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,529


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2016, 09:19:05 am »

either WI and PA are much closer than thought or georgia is...both at the same time won't happen i think.

I think the model assumes a lot of WCW shift right and CEW shift left... that could result in those states all being competitive, though I agree that the recent polling PA would suggest that's not actually a uniform thing.
Logged
Illiniwek
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,032



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2016, 10:30:01 am »

Not even looking at Georgia. Seeing IA and OH back on the winning team makes me happy. I hope this holds.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2016, 11:10:11 am »
« Edited: October 05, 2016, 11:17:56 am by Seriously? »

From this link: https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ it looks like a daily 50-state tracker with a two-week time frame.

Interesting. The problem is that it doesn't seem to break down the number of respondents per state that I can see.. There are about 36,000 interviews in there though.
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2016, 11:47:40 am »
« Edited: October 05, 2016, 11:49:52 am by Ozymandias »

This isn't a "real" or "pure" 50-state poll-- IIUC, then like Morning Consult from a few weeks ago, it uses a technique called MRP to model characteristics of voters across the country, and then applies that model to its entire national sample to make predictions for each state.

That's why there's no sample size per state-- because every polled voter has a small effect on every state (which of course varies from state to state, depending on the characteristics of the voter).
Logged
Ebsy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2016, 12:22:24 pm »

Good numbers on average I guess. YouGov seems to think EVERY state will be close in this election.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2016, 12:22:57 pm »

This isn't a "real" or "pure" 50-state poll-- IIUC, then like Morning Consult from a few weeks ago, it uses a technique called MRP to model characteristics of voters across the country, and then applies that model to its entire national sample to make predictions for each state.

That's why there's no sample size per state-- because every polled voter has a small effect on every state (which of course varies from state to state, depending on the characteristics of the voter).
Very interesting.Morning Consult attempted to give MOEs on theirs. This one, not so much.
Logged
PQG will pimp slap Coronavirus!
badger
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,465
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2016, 12:11:40 am »

The results seem too clustered like a bell curve. There's likely greater differentiation among these states.
Logged
Shadows
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,933
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2016, 03:04:15 am »

This is a very bad result for Clinton. How come WI is +3 & MI only +5. PA +2 is an absolute disaster

All 4 of PA, OH, FL & NC are withing 2% points. Trump needs a 1% swing away from Clinton or 2% of voters from the pool of Johnson/Undecided with Clinton holding still. 2% is not a good margin to have - That kind of swing can happen absolutely any day. And this means WI & MI are in play.

I will take this poll as an outlier!
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2016, 08:01:49 am »
« Edited: October 08, 2016, 08:04:10 am by dspNY »

Updating this: All the states in gray/light blue/light red on October 7. Numbers rounded off

National lead: Clinton 4.79%

Light blue:

VA: Clinton 50, Trump 42
CO: Clinton 49, Trump 42
MI: Clinton 49, Trump 43
MN: Clinton 49, Trump 43
NH: Clinton 48, Trump 43
PA: Clinton 48, Trump 45
NC: Clinton 48, Trump 45
WI: Clinton 47, Trump 44
FL: Clinton 48, Trump 46
IA: Clinton 46, Trump 44

Gray/tossups:

NV: Clinton 47, Trump 45
OH: Clinton 47, Trump 46 (Clinton actually leads by 0.5%, 46.6-46.1%)
GA: Clinton 47, Trump 47 (Clinton actually leads by 0.4%, 46.9-46.5%)

Light red:

MS: Trump 49, Clinton 45
AZ: Trump 49, Clinton 42
IN: Trump 48, Clinton 41
SC: Trump 50, Clinton 43

(Personal note): I like this daily tracker, think it has a legit methodology and should be included in the 538 model
Logged
Wherever you want to go, you can't go there!
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,386
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2016, 08:12:24 am »

I can believe that this is a good base line going into home stretch. Before we were 100% sure that Trump was a a rapist but before we know that Assange is either an actual spy/terrorist(someone who tries to influence behavior through violence or espionage or  other war crimes and that somehow Hillary really loves basketry) or just a troll. Arizona is kinda disappointed but a majority of people I spent time with in Phoenix were total c**nts.
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2016, 10:01:58 am »

(Personal note): I like this daily tracker, think it has a legit methodology and should be included in the 538 model

Actually, the results in most states are so similar to the margins that 538 predicts that I suspect YouGov uses the 538 predictions to help calibrate their model, because the fit is generally just as good in lightly-polled states as in heavily-polled states, which you wouldn't expect from an entirely independent model.

So I think 538 using these results-- which again, aren't actually a poll-- would be redundant...
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2016, 07:21:44 am »

(Personal note): I like this daily tracker, think it has a legit methodology and should be included in the 538 model

Actually, the results in most states are so similar to the margins that 538 predicts that I suspect YouGov uses the 538 predictions to help calibrate their model, because the fit is generally just as good in lightly-polled states as in heavily-polled states, which you wouldn't expect from an entirely independent model.

So I think 538 using these results-- which again, aren't actually a poll-- would be redundant...

That's possible...here are the numbers today:

National: Clinton 48.5%, Trump 43.3%, Johnson 4.9%, Stein 2.0%

Safe Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME (no district breakdown though), MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA

Safe Republican states: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MO, MT, NE (no district breakdown though), ND, OK, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

Lean Democratic (light blue)

NH: Clinton 49, Trump 41
MN: Clinton 49, Trump 42
MI: Clinton 49, Trump 42
CO: Clinton 49, Trump 42
WI: Clinton 48, Trump 44
IA: Clinton 47, Trump 43
FL: Clinton 49, Trump 46
PA: Clinton 48, Trump 45
NC: Clinton 48, Trump 45
OH: Clinton 47, Trump 45 (moved from tossup)
NV: Clinton 46, Trump 44 (moved from tossup)

Tossups

GA: Clinton 47, Trump 46

Lean Republican (pink states)

MS: Trump 49, Clinton 45
AZ: Trump 49, Clinton 42
SC: Trump 50, Clinton 43
TX: Trump 50, Clinton 42 (moved from safe Republican)
IN: Trump 49, Clinton 41

Maine-2, Nebraska-2 (my own analysis based off this tracker).

Obama won Maine-2 by 8% in 2012 and the state by 15.3%. Clinton currently leads Maine by 9.6% in this tracker, a 6% dropoff from 2012. Assuming the vote cuts the way we've seen it cutting, ME-2 is a TOSSUP with a very marginal lean to Clinton, if any.

Romney won Nebraska-2 by 7% in 2012 and the state by 21.8%. Trump currently leads Nebraska by 13.9% in this tracker, an 8% dropoff from 2012. Assuming the vote cuts the way we've seen it cutting, NE-2 is also a TOSSUP with a very marginal lean to Clinton (Pence is going to Omaha in his revamped schedule)
Logged
StatesPoll
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 441
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2016, 01:21:38 am »
« Edited: October 11, 2016, 01:23:55 am by StatesPoll »

Yougov Poll, Pennsylvania 10/9

Hillary 47.4% | TRUMP 45.1% | Johnson 4.2% | Stein 1.8%

https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Pennsylvania

not bad, considering pussy-gate. and pre-debate

TRUMP won big of Independent voters in YouGov Poll.

Independent : TRUMP 51% | Hillary 36%
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nojfnna7ti/Post%20Debate%20Poll%20Tables.pdf

Logged
Ebsy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2016, 01:38:13 am »

These aren't polls though.
Logged
Lok
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,277
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2016, 01:48:27 am »

#StopStatesPoll
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,481


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2016, 02:21:31 am »

It's multi level regression.

It was used in the UK general election by YouGov and was...not good.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines