IL-Normington Petts (D): Duckworth +9

[MT Treasurer]

46% Tammy Duckworth (D)
37% Mark Kirk (R, inc.)

Basically a Duckworth internal, so take it with a grain of salt. Still, it looks as if Democrats have IL, WI and NH in the bag at this point.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Bi-iePG1O6VEF0Z0FjR3NGdTA/view

[Xing]

I doubt that this is off by 10%. While Kirk probably isn't going to get Blanched, it looks like he's probably done.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, yeah, with a ~5 point adjustment or so for it being an internal, this confirms what we already knew - Duckworth is ahead, but she's in no position to landslide and she is going to heavily underperform Clinton. If this race was taking place in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania Kirk would probably be the favorite.

[Figueira]

Well, yeah, with a ~5 point adjustment or so for it being an internal, this confirms what we already knew - Duckworth is ahead, but she's in no position to landslide and she is going to heavily underperform Clinton. If this race was taking place in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania Kirk would probably be the favorite.

"If this race were in New Hampshire, Scott Brown would be the favorite"--someone in 2012

[Maxwell]

yeah... Kirk's not going to win still polling at 37% this late in the race.

[Figueira]

If more polls, especially more neutral polls, show this kind of lead, I'm calling it Likely D.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, yeah, with a ~5 point adjustment or so for it being an internal, this confirms what we already knew - Duckworth is ahead, but she's in no position to landslide and she is going to heavily underperform Clinton. If this race was taking place in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania Kirk would probably be the favorite.

We'll see. Pryor rarely polled any worse than a high single digit deficit. Then he lost by 15 points. The vast majority of these undecideds are going to vote for Duckworth.

[Phony Moderate]

If Duckworth wins could a Barlow or an Ogden go for Durbin's seat in 2020?