Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW. Trump's chances in CO before and after:
Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%
Still doesn't have the Keating poll. He rates them a B, with no bias either way.
Now with Keating included:
Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3% -> 27.8%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6% -> 25.3%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0% -> 18.9%
Which moves Pennsylvania to the tipping point state.
I have a feeling our TP will be either Pennsylvania, Florida, or Michigan.
What about Wisconsin ? (Maybe)
Wisconsin will be to the left of Michigan, for the first time since (I believe) 1988. It could be a tipping point, as could NH, VA, ME, NC, or NV, but I don't see these as likely as PA, FL, and MI.
Having only 10 EVs also makes it less likely.
I do wonder why Wisconsin seems to be so strongly in her camp. Perhaps Ted Cruz's victory there was somehow illuminating? I always thought Wisconsin was rather conservative outside of the major cities and it's certainly lily-white enough where you think Trump would be doing very well there.
