NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton 35 / Trump 31 / Johnson 24 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 12:37:27 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton 35 / Trump 31 / Johnson 24 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton 35 / Trump 31 / Johnson 24  (Read 5797 times)
PeteB
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,874
Canada


« on: October 03, 2016, 09:16:25 AM »

Interesting poll.  It does show that, on paper at least, any one of the three could win NM.  However, at this point, the most likely winner is Clinton.  The only other likely scenarios are:

1. Trump implodes while Clinton gets a lot of bad press (Assange?).  Clinton's share holds steady, while many Trump voters switch to Johnson (who itm does NOT have another Aleppo moment) and Johnson carries NM.

2. Trump cleans up his act and for once in his life manages to stay disciplined for a month (Smiley) while Clinton gets buried by new negative revelations.  Johnson figures out that Aleppo is the capital of Mexico and proceeds to tell journalists that.  Trump carries NM.

I would say that the probability of a Clinton win are 85%, of a Johnson upset perhaps 10% and of a Trump comeback less than 5%.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.015 seconds with 11 queries.