Romney's Biggest Mistake (user search)
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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Romney's Biggest Mistake (search mode)
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Author Topic: Romney's Biggest Mistake  (Read 15598 times)
Adam Griffin
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« on: April 03, 2018, 12:13:05 AM »
« edited: April 03, 2018, 12:16:57 AM by Fmr. Pres. Griff »

In retrospect, Romney (or any GOP candidate) was likely screwed from the get-go. The Obama campaign ran a ruthless and highly-effective strategy that mastered just about everything a campaign could master.

Romney was defined very early on and the clowncar process of the primary extended the time Romney had to spend fighting his fellow party members, giving Obama the resources to clobber the presumptive nominee (not doing the same to Trump, above all else, was the Clinton's campaign biggest f[inks]k-up in 2016, in my opinion).

Of course, Romney created a thousand flubs on his own that made for perfect campaign fodder, but even if he had not, the ruthless technological efficiency of the Obama campaign would've cut him down. Take one look at the 12 swing states in 2012:

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Even if Romney had flipped FL & OH, that only would've gotten him to 253. Notice the bolded segment of swing states: the Obama campaign was incredibly precise in generating winning results in a cluster across 9 of the 12 swing states, winning with 51-53% of the vote; five are within 1 point of each other. That's incredible efficiency, and basically maxed out vote shares in every state that Obama won.

Where exactly was Romney gonna make up the 5.5 percentage points by which he lost in CO/VA & PA? That's a huge difference - comparable to GA's 2016 result. Imagine both campaigns contesting GA in a full-throated capacity in 2016, claiming it was a pure toss-up, and then Hillary losing by the margin she did.

Romney was screwed from day one: not because he was a gaffe machine, but because he was running against the best campaign in the history of American politics.
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