Hard to say what Romney's biggest mistake was; he was running a campaign against a popular, charismatic incumbent with a strong campaign in a time of economic growth. Coming within 4 percent was an amazing result; anyone else would've lost by double-digits.
Obama had approval ratings in the negatives, it wasn't 2016.
RCP has Obama's approval at 50/47 on Election Day 2012, which isn't great but is definitely above-water and almost perfectly resembles the actual election result of 51/47. Obama's approval ratings were consistently positive from September 8, 2012, to May 29, 2013, inclusive.
With this in mind, what PV share gives Trump 270 EV in 2020? Last time, it would have been about 45.4%- he wins with Wisconsin and ME-02 (which was a Trump blowout at the CD level).
