Romney's Biggest Mistake (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:00:48 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Romney's Biggest Mistake (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Romney's Biggest Mistake  (Read 15594 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


« on: February 14, 2017, 09:48:09 PM »

Biggest mistake?

Running as a sacrificial lamb against Obama in '12, rather than biding his time to run in '16....

On a secondary note, I think the "binders full of women" remark really hurt him with Middle-Age Female Middle-Class and Upper-Income voters in key suburban areas.... the 47% mark reinforced this among a different demographic of rural/Small Town/ and Urban White Ethnic Blue collar working and Middle Class men.....

Voila.... what in theory could have been a late election night didn't turn out that way with late breakers of both suburban women and blue-collar rural and medium sized cities in key parts of the country.

Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2017, 10:32:36 PM »

Biggest mistake?

Running as a sacrificial lamb against Obama in '12, rather than biding his time to run in '16....

On a secondary note, I think the "binders full of women" remark really hurt him with Middle-Age Female Middle-Class and Upper-Income voters in key suburban areas.... the 47% mark reinforced this among a different demographic of rural/Small Town/ and Urban White Ethnic Blue collar working and Middle Class men.....

Voila.... what in theory could have been a late election night didn't turn out that way with late breakers of both suburban women and blue-collar rural and medium sized cities in key parts of the country.



-I was befuddled why he ran as a sacrificial lamb in 2008. 2012 was a winnable year for the GOP; it was just that the GOP ran a slate of bad candidates, Romney included, hurting the GOP up and down the ballot.

That's a good point.... in theory he might well have been a stronger GE candidate against Obama in '08 than '12.....

McCain ran on doubling-down on the Iraq War, as well as other relatively hawkish foreign policy items, at a time where America was going through war wariness with the daily body counts increasing as part of a non-unified, but still significant Iraqi insurgency, incorporating virtually all ethnic groups within the country (Excepting the Kurds that were biding their time for an independent state)....

Romney would likely have been better positioned as the Republican nominee to present a moderate Republican perspective on how to recover from the great recession and economic policy, while still winding down the war in Iraq in a responsible manner, similar to what Obama did....

IDK if any Republican could have beaten Obama in '08 after the failure of the George W. administration, on both economic and foreign policy items, but I think the Pubs by selecting a candidate that was tone deaf on the War in Iraq, made the job that much harder to win over Indies, Conservative Dems, and Liberal/Moderate Republicans to create a popular vote and electoral college majority, particularly in the key battleground states of the Upper Midwest, Western US, as well as key parts of the South Atlantic region....
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2017, 12:15:10 AM »

Biggest mistake?

Running as a sacrificial lamb against Obama in '12, rather than biding his time to run in '16....

On a secondary note, I think the "binders full of women" remark really hurt him with Middle-Age Female Middle-Class and Upper-Income voters in key suburban areas.... the 47% mark reinforced this among a different demographic of rural/Small Town/ and Urban White Ethnic Blue collar working and Middle Class men.....

Voila.... what in theory could have been a late election night didn't turn out that way with late breakers of both suburban women and blue-collar rural and medium sized cities in key parts of the country.



-I was befuddled why he ran as a sacrificial lamb in 2008. 2012 was a winnable year for the GOP; it was just that the GOP ran a slate of bad candidates, Romney included, hurting the GOP up and down the ballot.

That's a good point.... in theory he might well have been a stronger GE candidate against Obama in '08 than '12.....

McCain ran on doubling-down on the Iraq War, as well as other relatively hawkish foreign policy items, at a time where America was going through war wariness with the daily body counts increasing as part of a non-unified, but still significant Iraqi insurgency, incorporating virtually all ethnic groups within the country (Excepting the Kurds that were biding their time for an independent state)....

Romney would likely have been better positioned as the Republican nominee to present a moderate Republican perspective on how to recover from the great recession and economic policy, while still winding down the war in Iraq in a responsible manner, similar to what Obama did....

IDK if any Republican could have beaten Obama in '08 after the failure of the George W. administration, on both economic and foreign policy items, but I think the Pubs by selecting a candidate that was tone deaf on the War in Iraq, made the job that much harder to win over Indies, Conservative Dems, and Liberal/Moderate Republicans to create a popular vote and electoral college majority, particularly in the key battleground states of the Upper Midwest, Western US, as well as key parts of the South Atlantic region....

2008 was not an automatic Dem win until Lehman Brothers in September.  Postpone the financial crises to December and McCain was on track to win the PV by 1-2.  Granted, Obama still wins the EC in Colorado unless McCain can get his national lead up to 2.5 or so.  It would basically be the reverse of last year's result.

-2008 was an automatic Dem win all along. Take a look at W's approval ratings. 2012 was an obvious automatic Dem win with Romney (I predicted he'd lose the moment he became the frontrunner), but not an obvious automatic Dem win with, say, even someone like Gingrich.

So what would have made a candidate like Gingrich different than Romney in '12? Who should the Pubs have selected?

If a "Moderate Republican" like Romney was fated to lose, pray tell how someone like Gingrich could have chance the PV and EV outcome?

There is no question that Obama had some key vulnerabilities in '12 among significant elements of his electoral coalition, and trust me looking at the numbers in traditional timber mill towns in safe Democratic Oregon, this is patently clear (Most of the Democratic collapse between '08 and '16 actually occurred between '08 and '12, with the numbers from '12 to '16 more Obama '12 voters writing in Bernie, voting Libertarian, etc, rather than any real net gain for the Pub Pres nominee....

Thinking the Pubs should have tried running an economically protectionist, moderate on social policy but still hitting the right notes with the Evangelicals, and a relatively non-interventionist but strong on defense platform.... Who should that candidate have been?

Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2017, 12:51:53 AM »

Biggest mistake?

Running as a sacrificial lamb against Obama in '12, rather than biding his time to run in '16....

On a secondary note, I think the "binders full of women" remark really hurt him with Middle-Age Female Middle-Class and Upper-Income voters in key suburban areas.... the 47% mark reinforced this among a different demographic of rural/Small Town/ and Urban White Ethnic Blue collar working and Middle Class men.....

Voila.... what in theory could have been a late election night didn't turn out that way with late breakers of both suburban women and blue-collar rural and medium sized cities in key parts of the country.



-I was befuddled why he ran as a sacrificial lamb in 2008. 2012 was a winnable year for the GOP; it was just that the GOP ran a slate of bad candidates, Romney included, hurting the GOP up and down the ballot.

That's a good point.... in theory he might well have been a stronger GE candidate against Obama in '08 than '12.....

McCain ran on doubling-down on the Iraq War, as well as other relatively hawkish foreign policy items, at a time where America was going through war wariness with the daily body counts increasing as part of a non-unified, but still significant Iraqi insurgency, incorporating virtually all ethnic groups within the country (Excepting the Kurds that were biding their time for an independent state)....

Romney would likely have been better positioned as the Republican nominee to present a moderate Republican perspective on how to recover from the great recession and economic policy, while still winding down the war in Iraq in a responsible manner, similar to what Obama did....

IDK if any Republican could have beaten Obama in '08 after the failure of the George W. administration, on both economic and foreign policy items, but I think the Pubs by selecting a candidate that was tone deaf on the War in Iraq, made the job that much harder to win over Indies, Conservative Dems, and Liberal/Moderate Republicans to create a popular vote and electoral college majority, particularly in the key battleground states of the Upper Midwest, Western US, as well as key parts of the South Atlantic region....

2008 was not an automatic Dem win until Lehman Brothers in September.  Postpone the financial crises to December and McCain was on track to win the PV by 1-2.  Granted, Obama still wins the EC in Colorado unless McCain can get his national lead up to 2.5 or so.  It would basically be the reverse of last year's result.

-2008 was an automatic Dem win all along. Take a look at W's approval ratings. 2012 was an obvious automatic Dem win with Romney (I predicted he'd lose the moment he became the frontrunner), but not an obvious automatic Dem win with, say, even someone like Gingrich.

So what would have made a candidate like Gingrich different than Romney in '12? Who should the Pubs have selected?

If a "Moderate Republican" like Romney was fated to lose, pray tell how someone like Gingrich could have chance the PV and EV outcome?

There is no question that Obama had some key vulnerabilities in '12 among significant elements of his electoral coalition, and trust me looking at the numbers in traditional timber mill towns in safe Democratic Oregon, this is patently clear (Most of the Democratic collapse between '08 and '16 actually occurred between '08 and '12, with the numbers from '12 to '16 more Obama '12 voters writing in Bernie, voting Libertarian, etc, rather than any real net gain for the Pub Pres nominee....

Thinking the Pubs should have tried running an economically protectionist, moderate on social policy but still hitting the right notes with the Evangelicals, and a relatively non-interventionist but strong on defense platform.... Who should that candidate have been?



-Look at the Georgia and South Carolina primary results. Gingrich's appeal was near identical to Trump's, Romney's to Rubio's.

Eharding--- Man do you ever sleep, you're supposed to be out in Michigan.... Wink

So you are talking about the '08/'12/'16 Pub primaries.... how would/should have that translated into the General Elections?

How would Gingrich have fared in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio in the GE of 2012?

Would he have performed better in Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Colorado?

So, Gingrich margins might have been better than Romneys in GA, but what state would have flipped in the GE, and if so why?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 14 queries.