India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat

[jaichind]

On Uttarakhand seat, Lohaghat, is most likely headed for a re-count.  It ended up being

BJP     26468   47.9%
INC     26320   47.6%

For now it counts as a BJP win but recount might yield a different result.

[OSR stands with Israel]

On Uttarakhand seat, Lohaghat, is most likely headed for a re-count.  It ended up being

BJP     26468   47.9%
INC     26320   47.6%

For now it counts as a BJP win but recount might yield a different result.

would you say that the INC is more incomeptent then Corybn's Labour Party

[jaichind]

In Manipur it seems even as BJP is lining up NPF NPP and LJP to back it to get to 21+4+4+1=30 seats, INC seems also has AITC (which has an anti-BJP tilt nationally) to back it plus the one lone independent (Ashab Uddin) to back INC which gives it 28+1+1=30.  So we are headed for a 30 vs 30 showdown.

[jaichind]

would you say that the INC is more incomeptent then Corybn's Labour Party

I would say no Its main incompetence is that it did not allow local INC leaders to rise up to become mass leaders but instead insist on  the charisma of the apex leadership (AKA the Gandhi family) to fetch the votes.  When that worked, like Nehru, Indira, Rajiv pre-1989, and recently Sonia, it gave good results.  Main problem is that it worked too well over the last few decades so when their main leader, Rahul, does not come off as a mass leader, it gets beaten by the BJP which with Modi copied the old INC formula. 

When one asks voters in UP and Uttarakhand who they will vote say, they often say Modi and not BJP.  The BJP organization in many ways has not recovered from the 1999-2012 period of decline but for now Modi is making up for it.  Just like by the late 1960s the INC machine in UP was quickly falling into decline but still managed to win in the early 1970s due to Indira Gandhi.

All things equal INC is still fairly united even if faction ridden at the local level.  It also capable of making some good decisions, like letting Punjab INC run its campaign without interference from INC high command.  Despite defeats the INC organization is still mainly united in backing Rahul Gandhi as opposed to the situation in the UK LAB party where the PLP seems to despise Corybn.

[jaichind]

UP results map

[jaichind]

Manipur results map





Blue - INC (28)
Orange - BJP (21)
Dark Purple - NPF (4)
Light Purple - NPP (4)
Green - AITC (1)
Purple - pro-INC Bengali Ind. (1)

[jaichind]

Goa results map

[jaichind]

Uttarakhand results



Orange - BJP
Blue - INC
Purple - INC rebel

[jaichind]

It seems even though INC will be the largest party in Goa and Manipur, BJP is winning the post-election battle for CM.

In Goa, BJP(13) roped in the pro-BJP Independent(1), MAG (3), GFP(3), and critically pro-INC independent (1).  That adds up to 22 to INC(17) and NCP(1) which adds up to 18.  Of if INC is given the first shot at forming the government INC could lure some from this pro-BJP bloc to come to its side.

In Manipur it is INC(28)+AITC(1)+Pro-INC independent(1) = 30 vs BJP(21)+NPF(4)+NPP(4)+LJP(1) = 30.  But one INC MLA seems to have defected to BJP.  He will lose his seat but that would make it BJP Bloc 30 to INC bloc 29.  The INC to BJP defector MLA will then be removed from his seat for defecting.  But there will be a by-election where he will be running under the BJP banner and most likely win againist what INC runs against him.  Of course if INC is given the first shot at forming government the INC might engineer defections of its own. 

[jaichind]

Bloomberg did a somewhat superficial analysis of what 2019 LS election might hold given various state level results.
 
It points that a core 1/3 of the states form most of the seats available in LS and that the BJP’s stunning victory in 2014 was shaped by a subset of this core group which are 12 states of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Assam, Haryana and Delhi.


It then compared the LS implied assembly results to the real assembly election results in 7 states


And also calculated the implied LS seat count based on the assembly elections


And shows the decline in the BJP since 2014 in implied LS seats


It has some non-core BJP states and implied LS election results



The main conclusion is that BJP should be en route in 2019 to win the elections but with reduced majority along with NDA.

[jaichind]

Points out that out of 134 seats with high Muslim concentration BJP won 105 (and AD won 1)
                    out of 144 seats with high Dalit concentration BJP won 112 (and AD won 2)
                    out of 148 seats which were highly rural BJP won 103 (and AD won 7)

BJP+ won 325 out of 403 for a strike rate of 80.6%
For high Muslim concentrations BJP+ won 106 out of 134 for a strike rate of 79.1%
For high Dalit concentration BJP+ won 114 out of 144 for a strike rate of 79.2%
For high rural concentration BJP+ won 110 out of 148 for a strike rate of 74.3%

So despite BJP+ being weaker with Muslim and Dalit voters in districts with high concentration of Muslims and Dalits merely triggered counter-polarization of Upper Caste and OBC voters in favor of BJP+ leading to a strike rate that is fairly average when one would think BJP+ would do worse.  It is in rural districts that BJP+ had a lower strike rate since BJP+ does better in urban districts.  Here identity is not an issue so there was no urban counter-polarization in favor of BJP+ in these rural districts leading to a lower strike rate.

[jaichind]

Number of criminals as a percentage of the MLAs went down in UP Punjab and Goa but went up in Uttarakhand.  For UP this had a lot to do with less SP and BSP MLAs than in 2012.  OBC and Dalit parties tend to have higher percentage of criminals as its candidates than Upper Caste parties like BJP and INC.  In Uttarakhand the BJP had to import a lot of local leaders (many ex-INC MLAs) in districts where is was traditionally weak.  Many of these local leaders also have criminal records.  BJP's landslide there washed into with the tide a lot of criminal MLAs.

[jaichind]

With UP,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa now will be having BJP CM, BJP (orange) now dominate the local scene in India.  BJP allies (light orange) TDP rules AP, NPF rules Nagaland, and PDP rules J&K.  INC is now down to Punjab, HP (up for re-election later this year and likely to go BJP as well), Karnataka (up for re-election in 2018 and unless INC-JD(S) form an alliance will go BJP as well), Meghalaya and Mizoram
 (both for re-election in 2018 and one that BJP will target but most likely will fail).

The BJP surge in  Manipur makes clear on thing:  BJP is now a pan-Indian party just like INC was and now in danger of falling out of being one.  Only in the 1977-1979 with the JNP for a short time did a non-INC party achieve this feat.

The only states, for now, that are out of reach of BJP are TN (AIADMK and DMK duopoly), Kerela (BJP have significant presence but hard to break the INC-Left Front duopoly) , WB (dominated by AITC) and Tripura (dominated by the Left front).  But in WB on the long run BJP might emerge as the main rival to AITC and in Tripura BJP be able to break in and become the main rival to Left Front.

Places like Bihar BJP is in strong contention versus JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance while in Telegana BJP is battling INC to be the main rival to TRS,  and in Oriya BJP is fast becoming the main rival to BJD as opposed to INC.

[jaichind]

Yogi Adityanath, 44 year old Mahant (or priest) of a Hindu temple and BJP MP, is named BJP CM of UP.



He is a Rajput and founder of the radical Hindu youth group Hindu Yuva Vahini and comes from the Far Hindu Right of the BJP.  I guess what the BJP is counting on is the mass appeal of Adityanath and as a non-Brahman, could try to marry the Upper Caste and non-Yadav OBC wings of the UP BJP even at the expense of a more radical image.

[Shadows]

This guy is a complete religious nutjob & a radical guy & has a history of making anti-Muslim statements. I hope he doesn't try to resurrect that Ram Mandir stuff which will once again lead to mass communal riots.

One of the worst possible choices ever made for the CM - Is there any one who is more of a radical religious nutjob ? I think the BJP had a host of moderate decent leaders way better than this guy. The mask of development is falling off & naked brute communal-ism & Hindu Majoritarian politics are coming to fore-front.

Very disappointing - Complete against the mandate where Modi got big Muslim votes. I don't think BJP would have won if Yogi guy was projected as the CM candidate.

[jaichind]

A back-of-the-envelope calculation on the likely distribution of votes by community in UP.  The exit polls are all over the place on this so this is my best guess.

The current estimate of votes share by bloc are

BJP+    41.78%
SP+     28.25% (more like 28.5% once we add in SP backed independents)
BSP      22.40%
            
from there we can infer the breakdown by community

                        Share of
                      Electorate       BJP+       SP+       BSP                    
Upper Caste         20%           70%        15%      10%
Yadav                  10%          25%         65%       5%
Non-Yadav OBC     30%          60%         15%      15%
Jatav                   10%          15%          5%      75%
Non-Jatav Dalit     10%           35%        10%      50%
Muslims               20%          10%         65%      15%

BJP+ held on to the Upper Caste vote and won the battle of non-Yadav OBC while gaining a good part of the Dalit vote even though there were signs that the Dalit vote was coming home to BSP.  SP-INC has been reduced to the Yadav-Muslim bloc (almost 20% of the 28% vote share came from Yadav-Muslims) while BSP failed to gain ground in Upper Caste, non-Yadav OBC and Muslim votes despite running large number of candidates in  communities.  BSP hopes of sweeping BJP in Non-Jatav Dailt also failed.

What was decisive was the non-Yadav OBC vote went very strongly for BJP.  SP was formed in 1992 as THE OBC party but has lost the narrative this election leading to a collapse of its old OBC base outside of Yadavs.

[jaichind]

This guy is a complete religious nutjob & a radical guy & has a history of making anti-Muslim statements. I hope he doesn't try to resurrect that Ram Mandir stuff which will once again lead to mass communal riots.

One of the worst possible choices ever made for the CM - Is there any one who is more of a radical religious nutjob ? I think the BJP had a host of moderate decent leaders way better than this guy. The mask of development is falling off & naked brute communal-ism & Hindu Majoritarian politics are coming to fore-front.

Very disappointing - Complete against the mandate where Modi got big Muslim votes. I don't think BJP would have won if Yogi guy was projected as the CM candidate.

Well, at this stage the BJP has no excuse not to construct the Ram temple in Ayodhya.  Deep down they rather have the issue to extract votes than actually build the temple.  Previous excuses were "well, BJP has an UP government but BJP is not in power at the center" (1993 and 1997) then "well, BJP is in the power at the center but it is a coalition government and BJP allies does not support the temple" (1999), then "yes, we have a BJP majority at the center but there is no BJP government in UP" (2014).

Now there is a BJP majority at the center AND UP.  The BJP base will pretty much now demand the temple be built and there are no real excuses left other than the real reason "we do not want the internal and international blow back on building the temple and we just want to issue to get your votes."

[Shadows]

The Mandir stuff is sub judice in the courts & any act of construction is illegal & a crime (violation of laws).

Just to add, apart from his ridiculous religiously bigoted statements against Muslims, I found this in Google -

http://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/yogi-adityanaths-men-telling-hindus-to-rape-dead-muslim-women-is-beyond-shocking-230679.html

(This man has to not just the most radical pick but a complete threat to multi-cultural-ism, freedom ore religion & secularism)

[jaichind]

The Mandir stuff is sub judice in the courts & any act of construction is illegal & a crime (violation of laws).

Just to add, apart from his ridiculous religiously bigoted statements against Muslims, I found this in Google -

http://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/yogi-adityanaths-men-telling-hindus-to-rape-dead-muslim-women-is-beyond-shocking-230679.html

(This man has to not just the most radical pick but a complete threat to multi-cultural-ism, freedom ore religion & secularism)

Yeah, you are right.  The BJP has been running on the Ram Temple for so long I forgot that SC has to weigh in and give out a verdict. 

On the speech on of rape dead muslim does remind one of one thing the BJP ran on  in UP which is "anti-Romeo squads" which I thought was a joke but I guess it worked.  The "anti-Romeo squads" on the surface is about protecting women from sexual predators but the overtone of make it clear it is really about preventing inter-communal marriages.

[jaichind]

Trivendra Singh Rawat is the new Uttarakhand CM.  While he has a long career in the BJP half his cabinet are ex-INC MLAs as of just a couple of years ago.  The BJP in Uttarakhand deserves the nickname "Modi's Congress."  Of course this trend is part of a bigger story of how BJP is displacing INC as the pan-India natural party of government.  Local elites as a result are gravitating toward the BJP and it is particularly pronounced in Uttarakhand.   The new BJP CM of Manipur N. Biren Singh was in INC and was a minister in several INC Manipur governments.  He only joined the BJP in Oct 2016.

[OSR stands with Israel]

would you say that the INC is more incomeptent then Corybn's Labour Party

I would say no Its main incompetence is that it did not allow local INC leaders to rise up to become mass leaders but instead insist on  the charisma of the apex leadership (AKA the Gandhi family) to fetch the votes.  When that worked, like Nehru, Indira, Rajiv pre-1989, and recently Sonia, it gave good results.  Main problem is that it worked too well over the last few decades so when their main leader, Rahul, does not come off as a mass leader, it gets beaten by the BJP which with Modi copied the old INC formula. 

When one asks voters in UP and Uttarakhand who they will vote say, they often say Modi and not BJP.  The BJP organization in many ways has not recovered from the 1999-2012 period of decline but for now Modi is making up for it.  Just like by the late 1960s the INC machine in UP was quickly falling into decline but still managed to win in the early 1970s due to Indira Gandhi.

All things equal INC is still fairly united even if faction ridden at the local level.  It also capable of making some good decisions, like letting Punjab INC run its campaign without interference from INC high command.  Despite defeats the INC organization is still mainly united in backing Rahul Gandhi as opposed to the situation in the UK LAB party where the PLP seems to despise Corybn.

so would you say its more like the Republicans in the 1980s who as a party still hadnt recovered from the 1968-1980 days but they won mainly cause of Reagan popularity more then the popularity of the party itself.

[jaichind]

There are many theories why Adityanath was made CM of UP.  The conventional theory is that Modi-Shah is going to double down on Hindu nationalism for 2019 LS elections and Adityanath is the man to do it.  Another theory is that Adityanath was not the choice of Modi-Shah who would have prefered someone with a more moderate and developmentalist image and that this was an anti-Modi coup by UP BJP.  Yet another theory holds that Adityanath was going to be a problem for any BJP CM to handle so you might as well put him in charge hoping the holding office can tame him and keep his radical faction under control. 

I personally think it is the final theory.  It reminds me of a story back in the early 1990s when in a remote part of UP (or was it MP? I forgot) a local bandit leader ran for MLA of said district on the platform of law and order.  He was in a unique position to deliver on that promise since he and his gang was responsible for the vast majority of violent crime in that district.   He went on to win and I believe did deliver on his promise to reduce violent crime as he and his organization move more into graft and racketeering for revenue as opposed to just out and out banditry after he moved into office.

[jaichind]

In TN, for the by-election for Jayalalitha's seat AIADMK formally split into Sasikala's faction which will be called AIADMK(Amma) and Panneerselvam's faction will be called AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma).

Amma means mother in Tamil which was what Jayalalitha's supporters called her while Puratchi Thalaivi means revolutionary leader which is also what Jayalalitha wanted to be called early in her leadership of AIADMK.

[jaichind]

Indiaspend.org  points out that INC is now in better shape than in the 2014 LS elections by comparing vote share and win rate in seats contested in assembly elections versus 2014 LS







They do point out part of it is because of alliances it struck (Bihar TN UP).  What is not pointed out is that even in places where INC broke alliance since 2014 (Jharkhand with JMM and J&K with NC) the INC also did better since they were able to disconnect themselves from an unpopular incumbent. 

Also even though in UP, Assam, Kerela, and Maharastra the BJP vote held up from 2014 in other states they ebbed somewhat (Bihar, Punjab) and other places fell a lot (J&K, Jharkhand, WB, TN) which helped INC as well.

[jaichind]

There will be a by-poll in TN 4/12 for the seat left vacant due to the death of AIADMK CM Jayalalitha.  AIADMK Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) will run Sasikala's nephew since he is de facto running AIADMK Sasikala faction while Sasikala is in jail.  AIADMK Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) will run a the ex-MLA that won in this district in 1991 on the AIADMK ticket.  DMK and DMDK are also running candidates.

In 2016 TN assembly election the results where

AIADMK    56.8%  (Jayalalitha was the AIADMK candidate)
DMK         33.7%
VCK           2.5%  (VCK ran here as part of the DMDK+ front)
PMK           1.8%
BJP            1.7%

In theory the split in AIADMK should mean that DMK is in the running and if not favored to win the seat.  But so far it seems DMK is running a low key campaign in this by-election and not really working in a way to go all out to win unlike the two AIADMK factions where both are going all out to win.  The word on the ground is that DMK is working for AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) to win.  If DMK wins the by-election it might rally AIADMK to united around the stronger of the two AIADMK factions (namely AIADMK Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma)).  But if AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) wins it might trigger greater defections from  AIADMK(Amma) to AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) as the latter is seen to be the "real AIADMK" from a popular support point of view.  Such a flood of defections could then lead to a downfall of the AIADMK(Amma) government leading to fresh elections in which DMK-INC would win and return a DMK-INC government to power.  

Of course DMK is taking a big risk with this apparent strategy.  A defeat of the DMK by a large margin in the by-election could weaken Stalin's authority in DMK at a time when DMK is going through a leadership transition from Karunanidhi to Stalin.