PPP National: Clinton +4

[Matty]

I was thinking it was going to be a little more, tbh.

[bilaps]

After the top-line questions in order to not influence the numbers.

I'm not implying they are influencing the numbers with that question. But they are dem leaning, no normal polling firm would ever ask that question. And we know they are basicaly dem pollster so they are dem leaning.

But they aren't.

Every man has a right to opinion, I guess on RCP when the D shows up in brackets after PPP it means Deutschland.

[heatcharger]

After the top-line questions in order to not influence the numbers.

I'm not implying they are influencing the numbers with that question. But they are dem leaning, no normal polling firm would ever ask that question. And we know they are basicaly dem pollster so they are dem leaning.

Please. they have an R+0.2 house effect on 538. PPP has generally released polls that are friendlier to Trump.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Plus - it's barely 48 hours since the debate.

[chrisras]

How is Trump +1 post debate???  I assumed he would lose at least 5 points in the short term.

[Maxwell]

How is Trump +1 post debate???  I assumed he would lose at least 5 points in the short term.

A reminder - PPP never did a poll when Clinton was declining massively.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How is Trump +1 post debate???  I assumed he would lose at least 5 points in the short term.

A reminder - PPP never did a poll when Clinton was declining massively.

Considering PPP has been nowhere near as hot on Clinton as other pollsters, this needs to be made VERY clear.

[Seriously?]

How is Trump +1 post debate???  I assumed he would lose at least 5 points in the short term.

There is no good apples-to-apples comparison with this poll. There hasn't been a poll for a month.

My guess is that this will be D+6 with the H+4 topline.

[Maxwell]

How is Trump +1 post debate???  I assumed he would lose at least 5 points in the short term.

There is no good apples-to-apples comparison with this poll. There hasn't been a poll for a month.

My guess is that this will be D+6 with the H+4 topline.

D+6 or 7 makes at least some sense sense because that's what happened last election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How is Trump +1 post debate???  I assumed he would lose at least 5 points in the short term.

There is no good apples-to-apples comparison with this poll. There hasn't been a poll for a month.

My guess is that this will be D+6 with the H+4 topline.

D+6 or 7 makes at least some sense sense because that's what happened last election.

Wait... is party ID being brought back as a thing...

[Ebsy]

We should have taken Lief's advice and stickied a thread with the 2012 partisan id numbers. Might save some of you some confusion.

[Badger]

After the top-line questions in order to not influence the numbers.

I'm not implying they are influencing the numbers with that question. But they are dem leaning, no normal polling firm would ever ask that question. And we know they are basicaly dem pollster so they are dem leaning.

It makes as less sense than the R in RCP.

But they aren't.

Every man has a right to opinion, I guess on RCP when the D shows up in brackets after PPP it means Deutschland.

[EpicHistory]

This basically confirms those +6 and +7 polls from last week were bogus, unless somebody wants to argue her poll numbers went down from last week post debate. Still though, given that it appeared the race was about +2 for her last week, this isn't much of a bump.

Edit: Going by the Monmouth, NBC, and YouGov Polls, she didn't get any bump from the debate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This basically confirms those +6 and +7 polls from last week were bogus, unless somebody wants to argue her poll numbers went down from last week post debate. Still though, given that it appeared the race was about +2 for her last week, this isn't much of a bump.

Edit: Going by the Monmouth, NBC, and YouGov Polls, she didn't get any bump from the debate.

Again... noting that polls taken less than 48 hours after a debate rarely pick up the scale of any changes.

[Xing]

This is not a bad poll. Not suggestive of an enormous bounce, but we'll have a better idea where things stand on Friday or so.

[EpicHistory]

Again... noting that polls taken less than 48 hours after a debate rarely pick up the scale of any changes.

Extremely valid point I forgot to consider. Saw PPP, and assumed quality.

[pbrower2a]

Extremely close to the 2012 margin (3.86%). We can expect polls of some swing states to show the character of the election very soon.

[SirMuxALot]

Again... noting that polls taken less than 48 hours after a debate rarely pick up the scale of any changes.

Are you sure?

The two biggest debate polling bounces I can remember (2000 & 2012) saw the peak of those bounces happen immediately in the snap polls in the first 48 hours.

After Obama-Romney I, Romney's bounce was highest in the first 48 hours.  And by the RCP average measurement (a lagging metric), Romney was all the way back to pre-debate numbers only 1 week later.

My memory is a little foggier on 2000, but I do recall Bush's bounce after the Gore "sigh" debate also showed up in the snap polls immediately.  That bounce hung around a little longer, but Bush's best polling numbers in October were the ones done immediately after the debate...I vaguely recall Bush getting his first 50+ poll immediately after that debate.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So Hillary has basically been stable in PPP polls for what, 2 months?

I think it's time to remind this.



There aren't many people who change minds during a campaign. The poll fluctuations are almost exclusively about response rate and enthusiasm.

[afleitch]

Reversion to the mean. Though the debate probably stopped Obama winning a little bigger than he ended up.

[windjammer]

Seriously... how is this election even close with numbers like that:

African Americans:

Clinton 81
Johnson 7
McMullin 3
Stein 2
Trump 2

Hispanics:

Clinton 62
Johnson 17
Trump 16

Obama was  over 90 with blacks and over 70 with latinos, you have your answer.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Seriously... how is this election even close with numbers like that:

African Americans:

Clinton 81
Johnson 7
McMullin 3
Stein 2
Trump 2

Hispanics:

Clinton 62
Johnson 17
Trump 16

That's an EXTREMELY good question

[afleitch]

Seriously... how is this election even close with numbers like that:

African Americans:

Clinton 81
Johnson 7
McMullin 3
Stein 2
Trump 2

Hispanics:

Clinton 62
Johnson 17
Trump 16

That's an EXTREMELY good question

[chrisras]

Seriously... how is this election even close with numbers like that:

African Americans:

Clinton 81
Johnson 7
McMullin 3
Stein 2
Trump 2

Hispanics:

Clinton 62
Johnson 17
Trump 16

That's an EXTREMELY good question

Because Trump is dominating with non college educated white males.  Romney got 63%.  Trump is getting 76%

[Slander and/or Libel]

Seriously... how is this election even close with numbers like that:

African Americans:

Clinton 81
Johnson 7
McMullin 3
Stein 2
Trump 2

Hispanics:

Clinton 62
Johnson 17
Trump 16

That's an EXTREMELY good question

Because Trump is dominating with non college educated white males.  Romney got 63%.  Trump is getting 76%

That's probably good for about 2 points, if their share of the electorate is the same as it was in 2012 (which it may well not be). It's way, way not enough for him to close the deal, especially given that Romney would have lost by ~5 points this year, and Trump is weaker with some other groups than Romney was.