Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Tracking Poll: 11/6: Clinton +5

[cinyc]

Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Tracking Poll
Clinton 43%
Trump 38%
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%
Undecided 9%

From the website on methodology:

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So it's likely the poll was taken 9/25-27 and is of around 1,200 LVs.

From the accompanying article, Trump lost 1 point from yesterday.  Clinton was unchanged.

[cinyc]

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/page/president_poll_daily_tracker.html

I believe this is for 10/4-10/6:

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers  13m13 minutes ago
#National, The Times-Picayune/@Lucid_hq Tracking Poll:

Clinton 45% (+10)
Trump 35%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%

Thanks.  Luc.id and the Times-Picayune haven't been very good at regularly updating the poll.  It was Clinton +12 on 10/5.

[cinyc]

10/5-10/7: Clinton +10
Clinton 46% (+1)
Trump 36% (+1)
Johnson 7% (+0)
Stein 2% (+0)
Undecided 10% (+0)

10/6-10/8: Clinton +9
Clinton 45% (-1)
Trump 36% (+0)
Johnson 7% (+0)
Stein 2% (+0)
Undecided 10% (+0)

10/7-10/9: Clinton +8
Clinton 45% (+0)
Trump 37% (+1)
Johnson 6% (-1)
Stein 2% (+0)
Undecided 10% (+0)

[cinyc]

The weekend numbers and current poll:
10/12-10/14: Clinton +8
Clinton 45% (+0)
Trump 37% (+1)
Johnson 7% (+1)
Stein 2% (+0)
Undecided 10% (+0)

10/13-10/15: Clinton +8
Clinton 45% (+0)
Trump 37% (+0)
Johnson 7% (+0)
Stein 2% (+0)
Undecided 9% (-1)

10/14-10/16: Clinton +5
Clinton 43% (-2)
Trump 38% (+1)
Johnson 7% (+0)
Stein 2% (+0)
Undecided 10% (+1)

[cinyc]

10/15-10/17: Clinton +9
Clinton 45% (+2)
Trump 36% (-2)
Johnson 7% (+0)
Stein 3% (+1)
Undecided 10% (+0)

[cinyc]

10/16-10/18: Clinton +10
Clinton 46% (+1)
Trump 36% (+0)
Johnson 6% (-1)
Stein 2% (-1)
Undecided 9% (-1)

[cinyc]

10/18-10/20: Clinton +8
Clinton 45% (-2)
Trump 37% (+2)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (+1)

[cinyc]

The Times-Picayune/Lucid tracking poll is one of the swingier trackers, probably because of the 3-day sample and relatively small sample sizes.  I wouldn't read a one-day trend as anything more than statistical noise.

[cinyc]

10/19-10/21: Clinton +6
Clinton 43% (-2)
Trump 37% (-)
Johnson 7% (+1)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 11% (+1)

10/20-10/22: Clinton +6
Clinton 43% (-)
Trump 37% (-)
Johnson 7% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (-1)

10/21-10/23: Clinton +5
Clinton 43% (-)
Trump 38% (+1)
Johnson 7% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (-)

[cinyc]

10/22-10/24: Clinton +6
Clinton 44% (+1)
Trump 38% (-)
Johnson 6% (-1)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (-)

[cinyc]

10/23-10/25: Clinton +4
Clinton 43% (-1)
Trump 39% (+1)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (-)

[cinyc]

10/23-10/25: Clinton +4
Clinton 43% (-1)
Trump 39% (+2)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (-)

Should say Trump +1

Fixed.  Thanks.

[cinyc]

10/24-10/26: Clinton +4
Clinton 43% (-)
Trump 39% (-)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 3% (+1)
Undecided 10% (-)

[cinyc]

10/25-10/27: Clinton +3
Clinton 43% (-)
Trump 40% (+1)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 3% (+1)
Undecided 8% (-2)

[cinyc]

10/26-10/28: Clinton +3
Clinton 43% (-)
Trump 40% (-)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 3% (-)
Undecided 8% (-)

10/27-10/29: Clinton +1
Clinton 42% (-1)
Trump 41% (+1)
Johnson 5% (-1)
Stein 3% (-)
Undecided 9% (+1)

10/28-10/30: Clinton +1
Clinton 42% (-)
Trump 41% (-)
Johnson 5% (-)
Stein 2% (-1)
Undecided 10% (+1)

[cinyc]

10/29-10/31: Clinton +2
Clinton 42% (-)
Trump 40% (-1)
Johnson 5% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10%? (-)

[cinyc]

10/30-11/1: Clinton +3
Clinton 43% (+1)
Trump 40% (-)
Johnson 6% (+1)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 9%? (-1)

[cinyc]

Can I ask why anyone is putting any stock in Lucky Pickle Polling?  Have they even polled a race before this one?

Nope, but at least their methodology looks solid. I'd rather see a poll from this firm than some known junk pollster like Emerson, for example, which has a bad methodology and a bad track record.

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IVR landline-only polling has many faults, but opt-in Internet polling, like Lucid's methodology, is so unproven that they can't even generate a margin of error.   Both methods are terrible.  The only question is which is worse.  I guess we'll know after the election.

[cinyc]

Can I ask why anyone is putting any stock in Lucky Pickle Polling?  Have they even polled a race before this one?

Nope, but at least their methodology looks solid. I'd rather see a poll from this firm than some known junk pollster like Emerson, for example, which has a bad methodology and a bad track record.

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IVR landline-only polling has many faults, but opt-in Internet polling, like Lucid's methodology, is so unproven that they can't even generate a margin of error.   Both methods are terrible.  The only question is which is worse.  I guess we'll know after the election.

Isn't that how all online polling works though? YouGov is the same.

Not all of it.  Google Surveys conducts a lot of its polls as ads on news and other websites.  You might be able to skip the question, but that's equivalent to not answering the phone for a phone survey.  It's probably as close to random as an Internet survey can get.  But even some of the Google Surveys poll results come from their opt-in Mobile App, where people answer surveys for Google Play credits - not their 50-state poll results, though - that's entirely from ads.

[cinyc]

10/31-11/2: Clinton +5
Clinton 44% (+1)
Trump 39% (-1)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 9% (-)