Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Tracking Poll: 11/6: Clinton +5

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WOW!  So even the highly respected people at The Lucid Pickle Times have Hillary TRUMPIN' da Donald? 

GREAT NEWS!  DEBATE BOUNCE VALIDATED!

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YOWIE!  Trump is going down faster than me on Margot Robbie naked in my bed!

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Thank you, Lucid Pickle!!!  GREAT NEWS!!!

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Thank you Lucky Pickle Polling!  GREAT NEWS!

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Trump is making this closer.  His chances are improving in Florida and NC.  Not enough yet to win the election, but the talk of landslide is being put to rest.

Goalposts officially moving in TrumpTown.  Tremendous.

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I'm just not sure why people are keen to deny the weight of evidence and previous trends. It's a kind of ignorance that makes one no different than the Trumpists. Does the tightening really matter in the grand scheme of things? No. But we still have evidence of it.

We have evidence in aggregate that the polls have probably moved from around Clinton +6.5-7.0 to around Clinton +6.0-6.5.  The chance that it's entirely noise is non-negligible.  It's likely it's tightening, but I think there are periods where just eyeballing the polls -- instead of adjusting from when they're released, how big they are, etc. -- can give illusory or exaggerated signals.  I think this is one of those times.

I think a big part of it is that many of us were misled by a few polls to expect a Hillary win by 8-10 points. At this stage, anything below that feels disappointing.

That's exactly where I have it, 8-10 pts.  Lucky Pickle Polling is not going to change that with a tracker that swings 8pts in 3 days for virtually no reason.

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Can I ask why anyone is putting any stock in Lucky Pickle Polling?  Have they even polled a race before this one?

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10/31-11/2: Clinton +5
Clinton 44% (+1)
Trump 39% (-1)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 9% (-)

Thank you Lucky Pickle Polling!

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THANK YOU LUCKY PICKLE POLLING!!!