Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Tracking Poll: 11/6: Clinton +5
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  Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Tracking Poll: 11/6: Clinton +5
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Author Topic: Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Tracking Poll: 11/6: Clinton +5  (Read 11225 times)
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« Reply #50 on: October 20, 2016, 12:18:20 PM »

10/17-10/19: Clinton +12
Clinton 47% (+1)
Trump 35% (-1)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 9% (-)
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #51 on: October 20, 2016, 12:22:47 PM »

10/17-10/19: Clinton +12
Clinton 47% (+1)
Trump 35% (-1)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 9% (-)

It's happening!
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #52 on: October 20, 2016, 12:23:59 PM »

HILLAMANIA RUNNING WILD OVER TRUMP
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #53 on: October 20, 2016, 01:21:30 PM »

Let me guess: RCP doesn't include this tracker among its results for some bs reason.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #54 on: October 20, 2016, 03:47:17 PM »

Let me guess: RCP doesn't include this tracker among its results for some bs reason.

They don't include Google Consumer Survey or C Voter International either.

They're picky with certain online polls for whatever reasons.
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Person Man
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« Reply #55 on: October 20, 2016, 03:55:14 PM »

They are part of the Center-Right media. I don't really use the true liberal media because I don't want to be in an echo chamber the way the Country Club and their "help from the traditional population" are.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #56 on: October 20, 2016, 06:04:02 PM »

This truly is the most lucid of all pickles.
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cinyc
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« Reply #57 on: October 21, 2016, 12:11:27 PM »

10/18-10/20: Clinton +8
Clinton 45% (-2)
Trump 37% (+2)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (+1)
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #58 on: October 21, 2016, 12:22:54 PM »

10/18-10/20: Clinton +8
Clinton 45% (-2)
Trump 37% (+2)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (+1)
I may be imagining things, but there seems to be a movement of sorts in Trumps direction over the last couple of days.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #59 on: October 21, 2016, 12:30:29 PM »

i am quite sure there is a "tightening" (out of partisan reasons) from the +9 -non-Tracker-average but we won't see it before next week/sunday.

this was to be anticipated...the pussy-grab-video and the accusations have been so hard that even some of the most partisan voters have shrieked away from trump for a few days.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #60 on: October 21, 2016, 12:36:08 PM »

i am quite sure there is a "tightening" (out of partisan reasons) from the +9 -non-Tracker-average but we won't see it before next week/sunday.

this was to be anticipated...the pussy-grab-video and the accusations have been so hard that even some of the most partisan voters have shrieked away from trump for a few days.

Another theory I have is that they probably don't want to tell a live pollster that they're voting for Trump even after Pussygate.

That may be the reason why online polls on average show more stable margins whereas live phone polls fluctuate more. It's could be due to the social desirability bias.

Double digit lead in polls was likely just a noise.
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cinyc
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« Reply #61 on: October 21, 2016, 12:43:17 PM »

The Times-Picayune/Lucid tracking poll is one of the swingier trackers, probably because of the 3-day sample and relatively small sample sizes.  I wouldn't read a one-day trend as anything more than statistical noise.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #62 on: October 21, 2016, 12:43:29 PM »

i am quite sure there is a "tightening" (out of partisan reasons) from the +9 -non-Tracker-average but we won't see it before next week/sunday.

this was to be anticipated...the pussy-grab-video and the accusations have been so hard that even some of the most partisan voters have shrieked away from trump for a few days.

Another theory I have is that they probably don't want to tell a live pollster that they're voting for Trump even after Pussygate.

That may be the reason why online polls on average show more stable margins whereas live phone polls fluctuate more. It's could be due to the social desirability bias.

Double digit lead in polls was likely just a noise.

There is more evidence for the opposite of this theory
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #63 on: October 21, 2016, 12:46:02 PM »

everything is possible at this point, it's just strange that all the trackers show different values and base-lines, even while we know by now that weightening is maybe the most important part of that.

this weekend is likely going to show numbers which are close to the final results.
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cinyc
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« Reply #64 on: October 24, 2016, 05:28:12 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2016, 12:33:51 PM by cinyc »

10/19-10/21: Clinton +6
Clinton 43% (-2)
Trump 37% (-)
Johnson 7% (+1)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 11% (+1)

10/20-10/22: Clinton +6
Clinton 43% (-)
Trump 37% (-)
Johnson 7% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (-1)

10/21-10/23: Clinton +5
Clinton 43% (-)
Trump 38% (+1)
Johnson 7% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (-)
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cinyc
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« Reply #65 on: October 25, 2016, 12:33:13 PM »

10/22-10/24: Clinton +6
Clinton 44% (+1)
Trump 38% (-)
Johnson 6% (-1)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (-)
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #66 on: October 25, 2016, 12:33:59 PM »

This tracker is ultra sensitive.
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cinyc
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« Reply #67 on: October 26, 2016, 12:35:05 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 01:17:49 PM by cinyc »

10/23-10/25: Clinton +4
Clinton 43% (-1)
Trump 39% (+1)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (-)
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Moderate Pennsylvanian
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« Reply #68 on: October 26, 2016, 12:57:48 PM »

10/23-10/25: Clinton +4
Clinton 43% (-1)
Trump 39% (+2)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (-)

Should say Trump +1
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Ebsy
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« Reply #69 on: October 26, 2016, 12:58:08 PM »

I hope the polling industry leans its lesson in 2020 and discontinues trackers.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #70 on: October 26, 2016, 12:59:40 PM »

I hope the polling industry leans its lesson in 2020 and discontinues trackers.

who are you kidding? Next cycle every poll is going to be a tracker, and Gallup will start doing tracking polls again.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #71 on: October 26, 2016, 01:03:10 PM »

The takeaway from this tracker is that both candidates' support are basically straight lines, with Clinton above Trump for the entirety of the tracker's existence.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #72 on: October 26, 2016, 01:03:52 PM »

This poll had Clinton at +12 a week ago.

I know it's in vogue to ignore the polls and press on with the idea that nothing has changed, but it's pretty clear that the last debate was not the resounding win for the Clinton camp that everyone proclaimed. Voters don't really care when Trump talks about a rigged election; his supporters agree with him and those who are turned off by him but still in the middle have heard far, far worse. He appeared marginally confident last Wednesday, and no big stories have dropped on the trail. The race is tightening. He won't win, but it's pretty silly to deny that a shift is happening.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #73 on: October 26, 2016, 01:09:43 PM »

This poll had Clinton at +12 a week ago.

I know it's in vogue to ignore the polls and press on with the idea that nothing has changed, but it's pretty clear that the last debate was not the resounding win for the Clinton camp that everyone proclaimed. Voters don't really care when Trump talks about a rigged election; his supporters agree with him and those who are turned off by him but still in the middle have heard far, far worse. He appeared marginally confident last Wednesday, and no big stories have dropped on the trail. The race is tightening. He won't win, but it's pretty silly to deny that a shift is happening.
Stop.
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cinyc
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« Reply #74 on: October 26, 2016, 01:18:37 PM »

10/23-10/25: Clinton +4
Clinton 43% (-1)
Trump 39% (+2)
Johnson 6% (-)
Stein 2% (-)
Undecided 10% (-)

Should say Trump +1

Fixed.  Thanks.
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