ME-UNH/Portland Press Herald: Clinton+4, but Trump wins CD2 by 14%

[Erc]

So in 2012, Romney did better in CD2 vs CD1 by 6.2%.

In this poll, he's doing better by 20%.

What's going on here?  Is there that wide of a gap in educational attainment between the two districts?  Is there some sort of 2016 version of the Canuck letter being circulated by Trump's goons?

[Erc]

So in 2012, Romney did better in CD2 vs CD1 by 6.2%.

In this poll, he's doing better by 20%.

What's going on here?  Is there that wide of a gap in educational attainment between the two districts?  Is there some sort of 2016 version of the Canuck letter being circulated by Trump's goons?

The polls we're seeing this season are giving us an extremely incohesive map.  If Clinton's losing ME-2 by fourteen points, Georgia and Arizona shouldn't be anywhere close to being in play.  If Iowa's going to Trump by nine points, he should be ahead in Pennsylvania by at least 2.  "Battleground Utah" should never have been a thought.

So conventional wisdom suggests we should be headed for either a total Trump blowout or a total Clinton blowout.  But we're not.

In a world where White Men without a College Degree are second only to Black voters as the most partisan demographic group in the country, we're going to get some strange results.

[Erc]

There's no way a difference this large between the two districts can be explained by relative swings among different educational groups alone.  The two congressional districts are not that different; a good 40% of college-educated Mainers live in CD 2.

Getting a result like this just with educational swings would require college educated and non-college educated voters to each swing 30% in opposite directions, which clearly isn't happening.

This poll is off and/or there's something peculiar going on with CD 2. 

If the latter, what is it?  Has there been some political divide between the two CDs sparked by Paul LePage?  Something to do with the heroin epidemic?  Something going on in the French-Canadian community?  Some weird urban-rural divide?  Did Clinton do something to piss all of them off individually?

[Erc]

If they are confident about Colorado (as they seem to be), ME-2 doesn't matter for the electoral math one bit.