haha why are people freaking out about this? this is a crosstab from a specious uni-polling firm lmao.
That's my point Dead Flags.... but Trump looks like he will win ME-02.
This is the evidence we have that points in that direction:
-a SUSA crosstab
-a wonky internal
-a UNH crosstab
-an Emerson crosstab
-a crosstab from some unknown firm with a bizarre name
SUSA is a solid polling firm but their crosstabs are notoriously terrible. I shouldn't have to explain why I don't trust the rest of these polls. Until we have more polling from reputable firms, rather than this assortment of trash, I don't buy that Trump is going to win ME-2 by more than 1-2 points. It's a tossup at worst.
Again: Clinton would compete here if her analytics team thought it was close. The alternative explanation (that it's a Trump blowout) would suggest a WV-sized trend to Trump. So I'm thinking that it's not close and that we've been mislead by junk polls. I might be wrong; we'll see.
I think they have determined that it is a Trump blowout and that the 1 EV is unlikely to matter. In any event, we'll know something is up if Clinton starts campaigning in Portland. Note that Clinton has campaigned and run ads in NE-02, so they must be pretty sanguine about that one.
Portland is not in ME-2....
