What is the safest Liberal riding in Canada?
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  What is the safest Liberal riding in Canada?
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Author Topic: What is the safest Liberal riding in Canada?  (Read 2235 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #25 on: September 28, 2016, 07:37:38 PM »

Yeah, in looking at the 1993 results, the Liberals did well in a few rural Saskatchewan seats (only winning in Souris-Moose Mountain but weren't far behind in most ridings). But, those days are long over.

That's an interesting pattern on its own. It seems like when there's a 'throw the bums out' election, the winning party will overperform in some places where they have no roots, and immediately return to their normal level once they aren't running against an unpopular incumbent or riding a wave.

The Liberals in the Prairies in 1993 is a good example of this. So is the Tories in parts of Quebec in 2006. What would be the equivalent example for the 2015 Liberals?

It's kind of tough to tell, since we don't know whether an unusual result is part of a realignment/demographic trend or just a fluke. I'd guess the nationalist parts of Quebec or rural BC.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #26 on: September 28, 2016, 07:50:15 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2016, 07:52:18 PM by New Canadaland »

The Liberal's support level in nationalist QC wasn't really a fluke in 2015. It was very comparable to what they got under Martin and Chretien. Only difference being that 35% is enough to win in a 4-way split in 2015 but not in a 2-way split in 2000.

As for my answer for the safest Liberal seat, it would be one of the western NFLD seats.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #27 on: September 28, 2016, 11:55:19 PM »

The Liberals in the Prairies in 1993 is a good example of this. So is the Tories in parts of Quebec in 2006. What would be the equivalent example for the 2015 Liberals?

It's kind of tough to tell, since we don't know whether an unusual result is part of a realignment/demographic trend or just a fluke. I'd guess the nationalist parts of Quebec or rural BC.

Kelowna?  Or has it reached "big city" status?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #28 on: September 29, 2016, 09:41:02 AM »

Speaking of Victoria, it was the only riding with a negative Liberal swing in 2015. Chalk it up to it being an NDP-Green race.

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emcee0
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« Reply #29 on: October 08, 2016, 08:14:58 PM »

Speaking of Victoria, it was the only riding with a negative Liberal swing in 2015. Chalk it up to it being an NDP-Green race.


Yet, the Liberal candidate resigned, and remained on the ballot. Yet, still beat the Conservative candidate by a very narrow margin.
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