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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  44 Percent of Hispanics Voted for Bush or did they?, the real trends under Bush
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Author Topic: 44 Percent of Hispanics Voted for Bush or did they?, the real trends under Bush  (Read 943 times)
uti2
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« on: September 23, 2016, 07:04:31 am »

http://www.alternet.org/story/20606/44_percent_of_hispanics_voted_for_bush

Public Opinion Watch: Dig a little and you'll see that the evidence doesn't point to Bush getting 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2005/06/27/hispanics-and-the-2004-election/

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2005/06/27/iv-how-latinos-voted-in-2004/

http://publications.nclr.org/handle/123456789/554

Let's dispel the notion that 44% of Hispanics voted for Bush in 2004. In reality, the number was closer to 39-40%, which is only marginally higher than the standard republican 35% he won in 2000, and that was on the back of an environment of post-9/11 terror, fear and panic.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/32501273/ns/us_news-security/t/ridge-says-he-was-pressured-raise-terror-alert/

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uti2
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2016, 07:21:41 am »

So even with 'compassionate conservatism'/economic centrist policies combined with post-9/11 fear and panic and an incumbency, the percentage of Hispanics GWB could get was 39-40% not 44%, which is a significant difference when people try to compare his numbers to Romney's 27%. In reality, Romney's 27% was similar to Mccain's 31% (and mccain campaigned on amnesty). Even if Mccain and Romney had received the standard GOP 35% (bush's 2000 number), they still would've lost.

The point is that the 44% number is a fantasy, and GWB '04's numbers were a unique set of circumstances that got him 39-40% aided by multiple specific factors.

The Republicans should assume the Hispanic baseline in terms of successful outreach in line with Bush 2000's 35% number. That's the more normal historical precedent.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2016, 08:55:00 am »

You say "fear and panic," I say national unity against an obvious enemy that needed to be crushed.
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Hilldog
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2016, 10:07:19 pm »

You say "fear and panic," I say national unity against an obvious enemy that needed to be crushed.

This thread is meant to insight division.  Look at the wording which sounds like it was from one of the uncovered e-mails from the Democrats.
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uti2
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2016, 06:23:43 am »

You say "fear and panic," I say national unity against an obvious enemy that needed to be crushed.

This thread is meant to insight division.  Look at the wording which sounds like it was from one of the uncovered e-mails from the Democrats.

It's the former bush administration who admitted he was urged to raise the terror alert for political reasons, I link to that story.

It was Karl Rove's strategy:

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/10/opinion/editorial-observer-karl-rove-s-campaign-strategy-seems-evident-it-s-terror.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/capitalizing-on-fear-itself/

His own words, he admitted what I said in the OP:

"The election will be fought out over the security of the country and the security from threats. I don't think either one will dominate to the exclusion of the other,"
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