McClatchy/Marist C+7

[Absolution9]

Blacks make up 13% of this nation and made up 13% of the electorate in 2012...Hispanics 17.6% but only 10% in 2012 of the electorate. I think if they're angry and scared this year that they could add another 2% to that electorate.

That would still mean a 70% white electorate.

[Absolution9]

Not to be an unskewer but this poll has a few minor issues.  

1.  Its last iteration was a C +14 outlier.
2.  It under samples whites 67% to a likely 70%.
3.  It also under samples Non-College degree whites at about 51-52% of the white vote vs 55% in 2012.  If anything I would think the NCD white vote proportion will be a higher this year, maybe as high as 58-60% (its at least 67% in the general population).

Not saying that this would swing the poll to Trump, but it would make it more like a 3-4 point Clinton lead which seems more realistic.

[Absolution9]

I think Hillary has about a 3 point lead now based on national/state polls and admittedly unskewing this poll.

[Absolution9]

3.  It also under samples Non-College degree whites at about 51-52% of the white vote vs 55% in 2012.

It's worth noting that the non-college share of the white vote is declining in some places as rapidly as the white vote in general. As the Millennial generation continues to age up/into the electorate and takes over more of the electorate, and older whites die off, the educated share of the white electorate will continue to grow.

That's certainly true but I doubt it will fall 3.5% in one election especially when Trump is supposed to energize this portion of the electorate.  Also turnout among non college whites is already massively reduced vs college educated whites.  In 2012 it was 55% of the white vote vs over 67% in the white general population.

The whole election probably depends on whether Trump can turnout an unusually high number of non-college whites.  If the proportion falls at all from 2012 I doubt it will even be close.

[Absolution9]

That's certainly true but I doubt it will fall 3.5% in one election especially when Trump is supposed to energize this portion of the electorate.  Also turnout among non college whites is already massively reduced vs college educated whites.  In 2012 it was 55% of the white vote vs over 67% in the white general population.

The whole election probably depends on whether Trump can turnout an unusually high number of non-college whites.  If the proportion falls at all from 2012 I doubt it will even be close.

That's true, but I frequently wonder if non-college whites will have a big surge this year. Trump has no real GOTV effort to get these people to the polls, and the RNC's game is not that strong and is tasked with turning out voters for downticket races, so not necessarily focusing on entirely on what Trump needs. Another issue I see is that for the same reason these voters are getting energized, Trump is also triggering an opposing reaction from minority voters, which will help cancel out some of the non-college white surge.

It also might be possible that the craziness of this election might have only staved off an inevitable drop in turnout across the board, and thus may have stabilized the non-college white numbers.. but, I also think there are more problems with this little theory.

We'll see. I just think Trump's lack of a ground game is going to cost him in the end. Where he might have been able to fuel a bigger surge, now he will have to settle for whatever reality gives him.

Yeah it will be interesting.  I have read that while Trump himself has no GOTV operation the RNC has a turnkey operation that was built for this cycle that is substantially larger than Romney's effort in 2012.  A lot of mixed info on that account though.

On the minority voter front it splits into two sections.  I doubt there will be any increase in black voter turnout this year since it was already a record in 2012 and a good bit higher than the white turnout rate for this first time ever.  Maybe they can maintain it at those levels but I really doubt it increases further.

Hispanic turnout might increase from its current extremely low levels (under 50%) but I haven't seen evidence that it will.  Multiple polls are showing that Hispanics are the least exited of any group about this election and view its results in the most neutral terms with regard to danger to themselves.  Don't know why that would be with Trump's rhetoric.

[Absolution9]

Multiple polls are showing that Hispanics are the least exited of any group about this election and view its results in the most neutral terms with regard to danger to themselves.  Don't know why that would be with Trump's rhetoric.

What surveys?

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2016/09/15/tbt-ld-edition-voters-candidates-and-enthusiasm/

'Hillary Clinton is five points ahead of where President Obama was at this point in his re-election campaign four years ago.'

'Today, 51 percent tell us that they are more enthused about voting this time compared to 2012. In the 2012 tracking poll series, enthusiasm peaked at 47% the week before election day. Thus, Latino voter enthusiasm has already eclipsed the high-mark observed in 2012.

Narratives of Clinton’s under performance among Latino voters have circulated at various points during this election cycle. We find no empirical basis for such claims. Our data, from comparable polls taken at identical points in the general election cycle, suggest that Secretary Clinton is poised to do as well, or perhaps better, than President Obama did in 2012 with the Latino electorate.'

I was thinking of this poll from Gallup that I saw a while back(also have seen a few others confirming).  Maybe Latino Decisions is more accurate, not sure one way or the other I guess.

In U.S., Hispanics Least Worried About Election Outcome
http://www.gallup.com/poll/193670/hispanics-least-worried-election-outcome.aspx