McClatchy/Marist C+7
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 06:25:58 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  McClatchy/Marist C+7
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: McClatchy/Marist C+7  (Read 2499 times)
adrac
adracman42
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 722


Political Matrix
E: -9.99, S: -9.99

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: September 23, 2016, 11:15:55 AM »

Only adjusted down to Clinton +4 on 538.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: September 23, 2016, 11:17:25 AM »

And GOOGLE CONSUMER SURVEYS has a 3.62 weight on polls only (yes, the one that has about 30% undecideds), which is a lot higher than the next up, the one month Pew Research poll (probably the junkiest of the recent polls based on stats alone).
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: September 23, 2016, 11:22:23 AM »

The white share of the electorate probably isn't declining by 5% in one election. 70% seems more realistic.

That does seem excessive, but I don't think it changes the poll that much. To do a little pro-Trump unskewing here, if you substitute in 3 more points of white voters (so 70% now), going by the share from 2012, you could maybe up to 1.5 (give or take) more points for Trump.

Either way, this poll is not out of line with other recent national polls.
Logged
Absolution9
Rookie
**
Posts: 169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2016, 11:23:16 AM »

Not to be an unskewer but this poll has a few minor issues.  

1.  Its last iteration was a C +14 outlier.
2.  It under samples whites 67% to a likely 70%.
3.  It also under samples Non-College degree whites at about 51-52% of the white vote vs 55% in 2012.  If anything I would think the NCD white vote proportion will be a higher this year, maybe as high as 58-60% (its at least 67% in the general population).

Not saying that this would swing the poll to Trump, but it would make it more like a 3-4 point Clinton lead which seems more realistic.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: September 23, 2016, 11:24:37 AM »

Not to be an unskewer but this poll has a few minor issues.  

1.  Its last iteration was a C +14 outlier.
2.  It under samples whites 67% to a likely 70%.
3.  It also under samples Non-College degree whites at about 51-52% of the white vote vs 55% in 2012.  If anything I would think the NCD white vote proportion will be a higher this year, maybe as high as 58-60% (its at least 67% in the general population).

I agree the last one was an outlier, but C+7 seems to fit in with what other reputable polls are putting out. 15 to 7 is a massive correction.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: September 23, 2016, 11:26:46 AM »

3.  It also under samples Non-College degree whites at about 51-52% of the white vote vs 55% in 2012.

It's worth noting that the non-college share of the white vote is declining in some places as rapidly as the white vote in general. As the Millennial generation continues to age up/into the electorate, and older whites die off, the educated share of the white electorate will continue to grow.
Logged
Absolution9
Rookie
**
Posts: 169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: September 23, 2016, 11:27:04 AM »

I think Hillary has about a 3 point lead now based on national/state polls and admittedly unskewing this poll.
Logged
Absolution9
Rookie
**
Posts: 169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: September 23, 2016, 11:31:52 AM »

3.  It also under samples Non-College degree whites at about 51-52% of the white vote vs 55% in 2012.

It's worth noting that the non-college share of the white vote is declining in some places as rapidly as the white vote in general. As the Millennial generation continues to age up/into the electorate and takes over more of the electorate, and older whites die off, the educated share of the white electorate will continue to grow.

That's certainly true but I doubt it will fall 3.5% in one election especially when Trump is supposed to energize this portion of the electorate.  Also turnout among non college whites is already massively reduced vs college educated whites.  In 2012 it was 55% of the white vote vs over 67% in the white general population.

The whole election probably depends on whether Trump can turnout an unusually high number of non-college whites.  If the proportion falls at all from 2012 I doubt it will even be close.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: September 23, 2016, 11:36:23 AM »

It does seem like Hillary is gaining in national polls, but I wouldn't assume that this means that she'll start gaining in state polls as well. She might, but the movement in national polls could also be statistical noise.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: September 23, 2016, 11:49:33 AM »

It does seem like Hillary is gaining in national polls, but I wouldn't assume that this means that she'll start gaining in state polls as well. She might, but the movement in national polls could also be statistical noise.

Well, the nation is made up of states. Smiley  If there's a real movement nationally, then there must be movement in that direction in at least some states.  For some reason, state polls seem to lag movement in national polls.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: September 23, 2016, 11:50:46 AM »

I think Hillary has about a 3 point lead now based on national/state polls and admittedly unskewing this poll.

Agree.  Given that polls are always going to fall on both sides of the mean, the current set of polls fits pretty well with a 3-4 point Clinton lead.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: September 23, 2016, 12:00:48 PM »

That's certainly true but I doubt it will fall 3.5% in one election especially when Trump is supposed to energize this portion of the electorate.  Also turnout among non college whites is already massively reduced vs college educated whites.  In 2012 it was 55% of the white vote vs over 67% in the white general population.

The whole election probably depends on whether Trump can turnout an unusually high number of non-college whites.  If the proportion falls at all from 2012 I doubt it will even be close.

That's true, but I frequently wonder if non-college whites will have a big surge this year. Trump has no real GOTV effort to get these people to the polls, and the RNC's game is not that strong and is tasked with turning out voters for downticket races, so not necessarily focusing on entirely on what Trump needs. Another issue I see is that for the same reason these voters are getting energized, Trump is also triggering an opposing reaction from minority voters, which will help cancel out some of the non-college white surge.

It also might be possible that the craziness of this election might have only staved off an inevitable drop in turnout across the board, and thus may have stabilized the non-college white numbers.. but, I also think there are more problems with this little theory.

We'll see. I just think Trump's lack of a ground game is going to cost him in the end. Where he might have been able to fuel a bigger surge, now he will have to settle for whatever reality gives him.
Logged
Absolution9
Rookie
**
Posts: 169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: September 23, 2016, 12:13:57 PM »

That's certainly true but I doubt it will fall 3.5% in one election especially when Trump is supposed to energize this portion of the electorate.  Also turnout among non college whites is already massively reduced vs college educated whites.  In 2012 it was 55% of the white vote vs over 67% in the white general population.

The whole election probably depends on whether Trump can turnout an unusually high number of non-college whites.  If the proportion falls at all from 2012 I doubt it will even be close.

That's true, but I frequently wonder if non-college whites will have a big surge this year. Trump has no real GOTV effort to get these people to the polls, and the RNC's game is not that strong and is tasked with turning out voters for downticket races, so not necessarily focusing on entirely on what Trump needs. Another issue I see is that for the same reason these voters are getting energized, Trump is also triggering an opposing reaction from minority voters, which will help cancel out some of the non-college white surge.

It also might be possible that the craziness of this election might have only staved off an inevitable drop in turnout across the board, and thus may have stabilized the non-college white numbers.. but, I also think there are more problems with this little theory.

We'll see. I just think Trump's lack of a ground game is going to cost him in the end. Where he might have been able to fuel a bigger surge, now he will have to settle for whatever reality gives him.

Yeah it will be interesting.  I have read that while Trump himself has no GOTV operation the RNC has a turnkey operation that was built for this cycle that is substantially larger than Romney's effort in 2012.  A lot of mixed info on that account though.

On the minority voter front it splits into two sections.  I doubt there will be any increase in black voter turnout this year since it was already a record in 2012 and a good bit higher than the white turnout rate for this first time ever.  Maybe they can maintain it at those levels but I really doubt it increases further.

Hispanic turnout might increase from its current extremely low levels (under 50%) but I haven't seen evidence that it will.  Multiple polls are showing that Hispanics are the least exited of any group about this election and view its results in the most neutral terms with regard to danger to themselves.  Don't know why that would be with Trump's rhetoric.
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,837


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: September 23, 2016, 12:16:49 PM »

Multiple polls are showing that Hispanics are the least exited of any group about this election and view its results in the most neutral terms with regard to danger to themselves.  Don't know why that would be with Trump's rhetoric.

What surveys?

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2016/09/15/tbt-ld-edition-voters-candidates-and-enthusiasm/

'Hillary Clinton is five points ahead of where President Obama was at this point in his re-election campaign four years ago.'

'Today, 51 percent tell us that they are more enthused about voting this time compared to 2012. In the 2012 tracking poll series, enthusiasm peaked at 47% the week before election day. Thus, Latino voter enthusiasm has already eclipsed the high-mark observed in 2012.

Narratives of Clinton’s under performance among Latino voters have circulated at various points during this election cycle. We find no empirical basis for such claims. Our data, from comparable polls taken at identical points in the general election cycle, suggest that Secretary Clinton is poised to do as well, or perhaps better, than President Obama did in 2012 with the Latino electorate.'
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: September 23, 2016, 12:18:10 PM »

I can understand them not being as enthused FOR Clinton. But make no mistake, hispanic turnout will shoot upwards because of Trump.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: September 23, 2016, 12:22:04 PM »

I think Hillary has about a 3 point lead now based on national/state polls and admittedly unskewing this poll.

Agree.  Given that polls are always going to fall on both sides of the mean, the current set of polls fits pretty well with a 3-4 point Clinton lead.
Logged
Absolution9
Rookie
**
Posts: 169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: September 23, 2016, 12:28:32 PM »

Multiple polls are showing that Hispanics are the least exited of any group about this election and view its results in the most neutral terms with regard to danger to themselves.  Don't know why that would be with Trump's rhetoric.

What surveys?

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2016/09/15/tbt-ld-edition-voters-candidates-and-enthusiasm/

'Hillary Clinton is five points ahead of where President Obama was at this point in his re-election campaign four years ago.'

'Today, 51 percent tell us that they are more enthused about voting this time compared to 2012. In the 2012 tracking poll series, enthusiasm peaked at 47% the week before election day. Thus, Latino voter enthusiasm has already eclipsed the high-mark observed in 2012.

Narratives of Clinton’s under performance among Latino voters have circulated at various points during this election cycle. We find no empirical basis for such claims. Our data, from comparable polls taken at identical points in the general election cycle, suggest that Secretary Clinton is poised to do as well, or perhaps better, than President Obama did in 2012 with the Latino electorate.'

I was thinking of this poll from Gallup that I saw a while back(also have seen a few others confirming).  Maybe Latino Decisions is more accurate, not sure one way or the other I guess.

In U.S., Hispanics Least Worried About Election Outcome
http://www.gallup.com/poll/193670/hispanics-least-worried-election-outcome.aspx
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: September 23, 2016, 12:35:10 PM »

It's possible that even without a massive surge in enthusiasm, that Hispanics still turn out in large numbers. I don't know. Predicting turnout is a pretty dicey affair. If it makes a difference, last I recall Hispanics rated this election as very important to vote in, in large numbers.

But I must admit, it's very hard for me to see anything less than at least a few points increase in turnout for Hispanics this year. The mitigating factor in my mind is that almost half of the Hispanic electorate is composed of Millennials, and that age group in general has always had turnout rates lower than older folks. Hispanic Millennials are notorious for having arguably the lowest turnout rates (save for maybe Asian voters), so I have to wonder if they will finally get up and vote in large numbers this year. It's certainly possible - black Millennials had, iirc, upwards of 57% or so turnout in 2012.

However, I'm a little bit peeved that Democrats didn't push massive investment in registering/GOTV for Hispanics this cycle. As far as I can tell, the investment isn't particularly noteworthy. Several prominent groups involved in registering Hispanic voters (Mi Familia Vota for instance) said they were suffering from a lack of investment compared to 2012. Perhaps Democrats set up a bigger operation on their own? Or maybe the more likely answer is that they wanted to be cheap and thought Trump alone would do the work for them, probably so they could have more money to waste on useless advertisements. Not sure though. I hope I'm wrong.

Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: September 23, 2016, 12:53:29 PM »

Something else worth noting here is this:

Generic Congressional Poll
---------------------------------------------
18 to 29 :Sad 63% - 33% D
30 to 44 :Sad 49% - 46% D
45 to 59 :Sad 50% - 43% D
60 or older :Sad 43% - 53% R

Overall: +4 points Democratic for the House PV.

Democrats still look poised to absolutely dominate with 18-29 year olds in other races, so their hatred of Clinton seems isolated for now. More interesting, imo, is how older Millennials and young GenXers (30-44) are much closer even when the party ID for that group is almost as Democratic as 18-29 (per recent pew survey). The 45-59 is surprising as well, but not too surprising. Those are younger boomers and older GenXers, of which the younger boomers grew up partly under Nixon, leaving them more Democratic-leaning than older boomers.

Regardless, given this poll and basically every other Congressional poll, Democrats look poised to win the House PV by anywhere from 4 - 6 points or more this cycle, if Clinton wins. That's a huge improvement on 2012. Might get us upwards of 20 - 26 seats if we get lucky.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: September 23, 2016, 02:19:38 PM »

I can understand them not being as enthused FOR Clinton. But make no mistake, hispanic turnout will shoot upwards because of Trump.

Negative emotions often have a stronger effect than positive ones.  There's an old joke about two veteran political operatives, one from each party, meeting for a drink and swapping war stories and tricks of the trade:

R: One thing I always do is when I pay for a taxi, is smile, give the cabbie a big tip, and say "Vote Republican!"

D: I do something similar.  I smile, give the cabbie NO tip, and say "Vote Republican!"
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: September 23, 2016, 02:27:55 PM »

I can understand them not being as enthused FOR Clinton. But make no mistake, hispanic turnout will shoot upwards because of Trump.

Negative emotions often have a stronger effect than positive ones.  There's an old joke about two veteran political operatives, one from each party, meeting for a drink and swapping war stories and tricks of the trade:

R: One thing I always do is when I pay for a taxi, is smile, give the cabbie a big tip, and say "Vote Republican!"

D: I do something similar.  I smile, give the cabbie NO tip, and say "Vote Republican!"

Good one! Cheesy Though I think it'd be more realistic if you switched the party. Republicans invented Ratf**king, after all.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 12 queries.