Siena/Newsday/News 12 Long Island, NY Poll - Trump +4 (4-way)/Even (2-way)

[Horus]

Trump seems to play well with Italians and Orthodox Jews, regardless of education. Long Island is full of both groups.

[KingSweden]

So Trump is doing better in the suburbs than upstate? Why?

[Absolution9]

Another interesting question: if Trump is doing so well in Nassau + Suffolk why is he getting killed by 25 points in the Philadelphia burbs ( Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, Bucks counties).  The college/non- college white proportion is actually similar (45% in Philly burbs - 42% in Long Island) and the Philly burbs are way whiter (78% vs 67% in 2010).

Is it ethnic differences?  Philly burbs are less Irish/Italian or what?

It would mean the Philly suburbs are going to swing 13 points more Democratic while the demographically similar Long Island NYC burbs will swing 7 points more Republican.  Weird.

[EpicHistory]

Another interesting question: if Trump is doing so well in Nassau + Suffolk why is he getting killed by 25 points in the Philadelphia burbs ( Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, Bucks counties).  The college/non- college white proportion is actually similar (45% in Philly burbs - 42% in Long Island) and the Philly burbs are way whiter (78% vs 67% in 2010).

Is it ethnic differences?  Philly burbs are less Irish/Italian or what?

It would mean the Philly suburbs are going to swing 13 points more Democratic while the demographically similar Long Island NYC burbs will swing 7 points more Republican.  Weird.

We definitely need some more PA polls to confirm if this is the case, but I increasingly think we're either entering a realignment or this year is the first to display the results of such in full. My current theory is that 2008 was the actual realigning election, but that this year is the first time all the trends from that have become clear.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Another interesting question: if Trump is doing so well in Nassau + Suffolk why is he getting killed by 25 points in the Philadelphia burbs ( Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, Bucks counties).  The college/non- college white proportion is actually similar (45% in Philly burbs - 42% in Long Island) and the Philly burbs are way whiter (78% vs 67% in 2010).

Is it ethnic differences?  Philly burbs are less Irish/Italian or what?

It would mean the Philly suburbs are going to swing 13 points more Democratic while the demographically similar Long Island NYC burbs will swing 7 points more Republican.  Weird.

We definitely need some more PA polls to confirm if this is the case, but I increasingly think we're either entering a realignment or this year is the first to display the results of such in full. My current theory is that 2008 was the actual realigning election, but that this year is the first time all the trends from that have become clear.

Not saying this explains all of it, but we shouldn't really expect NY trends to line up with how the nation trends this year because Hurricane Sandy got Obama a bunch of votes in that state that he wouldn't have gotten otherwise, and likely lowered turnout in certain coastal areas as well.

[Absolution9]

Another interesting question: if Trump is doing so well in Nassau + Suffolk why is he getting killed by 25 points in the Philadelphia burbs ( Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, Bucks counties).  The college/non- college white proportion is actually similar (45% in Philly burbs - 42% in Long Island) and the Philly burbs are way whiter (78% vs 67% in 2010).

Is it ethnic differences?  Philly burbs are less Irish/Italian or what?

It would mean the Philly suburbs are going to swing 13 points more Democratic while the demographically similar Long Island NYC burbs will swing 7 points more Republican.  Weird.

We definitely need some more PA polls to confirm if this is the case, but I increasingly think we're either entering a realignment or this year is the first to display the results of such in full. My current theory is that 2008 was the actual realigning election, but that this year is the first time all the trends from that have become clear.

Not saying this explains all of it, but we shouldn't really expect NY trends to line up with how the nation trends this year because Hurricane Sandy got Obama a bunch of votes in that state that he wouldn't have gotten otherwise, and likely lowered turnout in certain coastal areas as well.

Yeah but these groups of suburbs have similar voting histories.  The last time a Republican presidential candidate won both in whole was 1988.  Since then the have gone to Democrats by basically 3-15 point margins. Yet the LI burbs are going toward Trump and the Philly burbs are going way against him this time.

[Smash255]

Sienna/Newssday have had an odd track record.  Sometimes solid Nassau 2013 CE race, sometimes awful, Nassau 09 CE race.

2012 had Romney up slightly over Obama during the homestretch

http://www.newsday.com/elections/mitt-romney-holds-slight-edge-over-barack-obama-among-li-voters-1.4162143

[Suburbia]

Trump is probably doing well in Garden City, Country Life Press, etc.

[Smash255]

Trump is probably doing well in Garden City, Country Life Press, etc.

He likely will, but he likely doesn't do as well as most Republicans have there.

[Hilldog]

This doesn't surprise me or mean very much.  He's had the Mr. New Yorker persona his whole life so he's got to do well somewhere there.