Why do people keep assuming negative black swan events for Hillary in 2020?
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  Why do people keep assuming negative black swan events for Hillary in 2020?
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Author Topic: Why do people keep assuming negative black swan events for Hillary in 2020?  (Read 455 times)
uti2
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« on: September 22, 2016, 04:38:33 PM »

Provided she is elected? There could also be black swan events that benefit her and hurt the republicans, for instance, a zika outbreak, which would bring back the abortion debate and turn FL solid D.

Also, an economic recession doesn't necessarily hurt her, if gets to the point where we have an '08-style bailout that a republican congress refuses to pass, thus exacerbating the situation, the republicans would be equally blamed for that.
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White Trash
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2016, 04:39:32 PM »

Provided she is elected? There could also be black swan events that benefit her and hurt the republicans, for instance, a zika outbreak, which would bring back the abortion debate and turn FL solid D.

Also, an economic recession doesn't necessarily hurt her, if gets to the point where we have an '08-style bailout that a republican congress refuses to pass, thus exacerbating the situation, the republicans would be equally blamed for that.

lol
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uti2
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2016, 04:43:44 PM »

Provided she is elected? There could also be black swan events that benefit her and hurt the republicans, for instance, a zika outbreak, which would bring back the abortion debate and turn FL solid D.

Also, an economic recession doesn't necessarily hurt her, if gets to the point where we have an '08-style bailout that a republican congress refuses to pass, thus exacerbating the situation, the republicans would be equally blamed for that.

lol

These are the moderate suburban women who vote GOP for economic reasons, you get GOP-types calling for bans on abortion in all cases, when the polling data demonstrates that the public supports abortion for microcephaly even in the cases of late-term abortion, you'll alienate huge swathes of the GOP coalition:

http://liveactionnews.org/disturbing-new-poll-americans-support-late-term-abortion-zika-virus/
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2016, 05:08:45 PM »

I don't think it's guaranteed Hillary has very bad approval ratings throughout - I think the economy will continue to improve and the foreign policy continuations of the Obama administration could lead to the defeat of ISIS, which would be a massive bolster to her approval ratings.
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White Trash
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2016, 05:12:23 PM »

Provided she is elected? There could also be black swan events that benefit her and hurt the republicans, for instance, a zika outbreak, which would bring back the abortion debate and turn FL solid D.

Also, an economic recession doesn't necessarily hurt her, if gets to the point where we have an '08-style bailout that a republican congress refuses to pass, thus exacerbating the situation, the republicans would be equally blamed for that.

lol

These are the moderate suburban women who vote GOP for economic reasons, you get GOP-types calling for bans on abortion in all cases, when the polling data demonstrates that the public supports abortion for microcephaly even in the cases of late-term abortion, you'll alienate huge swathes of the GOP coalition:

http://liveactionnews.org/disturbing-new-poll-americans-support-late-term-abortion-zika-virus/

This is assuming that the Zika virus is actually going to be an issue even in 2017, much less 2020.
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uti2
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2016, 05:14:34 PM »

Provided she is elected? There could also be black swan events that benefit her and hurt the republicans, for instance, a zika outbreak, which would bring back the abortion debate and turn FL solid D.

Also, an economic recession doesn't necessarily hurt her, if gets to the point where we have an '08-style bailout that a republican congress refuses to pass, thus exacerbating the situation, the republicans would be equally blamed for that.

lol

These are the moderate suburban women who vote GOP for economic reasons, you get GOP-types calling for bans on abortion in all cases, when the polling data demonstrates that the public supports abortion for microcephaly even in the cases of late-term abortion, you'll alienate huge swathes of the GOP coalition:

http://liveactionnews.org/disturbing-new-poll-americans-support-late-term-abortion-zika-virus/

This is assuming that the Zika virus is actually going to be an issue even in 2017, much less 2020.

This is in the context of people assuming a 'recession' is going to be an issue in the next few years going by the same logic.
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White Trash
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« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2016, 05:16:11 PM »

Provided she is elected? There could also be black swan events that benefit her and hurt the republicans, for instance, a zika outbreak, which would bring back the abortion debate and turn FL solid D.

Also, an economic recession doesn't necessarily hurt her, if gets to the point where we have an '08-style bailout that a republican congress refuses to pass, thus exacerbating the situation, the republicans would be equally blamed for that.

lol

These are the moderate suburban women who vote GOP for economic reasons, you get GOP-types calling for bans on abortion in all cases, when the polling data demonstrates that the public supports abortion for microcephaly even in the cases of late-term abortion, you'll alienate huge swathes of the GOP coalition:

http://liveactionnews.org/disturbing-new-poll-americans-support-late-term-abortion-zika-virus/

This is assuming that the Zika virus is actually going to be an issue even in 2017, much less 2020.

This is in the context of people assuming a 'recession' is going to be an issue in the next few years going by the same logic.

I think that a recession is much more likely than a serious Zika epidemic in Florida.
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uti2
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« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2016, 05:18:32 PM »

Provided she is elected? There could also be black swan events that benefit her and hurt the republicans, for instance, a zika outbreak, which would bring back the abortion debate and turn FL solid D.

Also, an economic recession doesn't necessarily hurt her, if gets to the point where we have an '08-style bailout that a republican congress refuses to pass, thus exacerbating the situation, the republicans would be equally blamed for that.

lol

These are the moderate suburban women who vote GOP for economic reasons, you get GOP-types calling for bans on abortion in all cases, when the polling data demonstrates that the public supports abortion for microcephaly even in the cases of late-term abortion, you'll alienate huge swathes of the GOP coalition:

http://liveactionnews.org/disturbing-new-poll-americans-support-late-term-abortion-zika-virus/

This is assuming that the Zika virus is actually going to be an issue even in 2017, much less 2020.

This is in the context of people assuming a 'recession' is going to be an issue in the next few years going by the same logic.

I think that a recession is much more likely than a serious Zika epidemic in Florida.

Why? And also, the republicans will use any kind of excuse to justify what they perceive to be a recession like in 2012, that's not to be confused with a real recession a la 2008, and such a real recession would have a bipartisan effect if it is actually serious.
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White Trash
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« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2016, 05:30:27 PM »

Provided she is elected? There could also be black swan events that benefit her and hurt the republicans, for instance, a zika outbreak, which would bring back the abortion debate and turn FL solid D.

Also, an economic recession doesn't necessarily hurt her, if gets to the point where we have an '08-style bailout that a republican congress refuses to pass, thus exacerbating the situation, the republicans would be equally blamed for that.

lol

These are the moderate suburban women who vote GOP for economic reasons, you get GOP-types calling for bans on abortion in all cases, when the polling data demonstrates that the public supports abortion for microcephaly even in the cases of late-term abortion, you'll alienate huge swathes of the GOP coalition:

http://liveactionnews.org/disturbing-new-poll-americans-support-late-term-abortion-zika-virus/

This is assuming that the Zika virus is actually going to be an issue even in 2017, much less 2020.

This is in the context of people assuming a 'recession' is going to be an issue in the next few years going by the same logic.

I think that a recession is much more likely than a serious Zika epidemic in Florida.

Why? And also, the republicans will use any kind of excuse to justify what they perceive to be a recession like in 2012, that's not to be confused with a real recession a la 2008, and such a real recession would have a bipartisan effect if it is actually serious.
http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/united-states.html

Zika isn't spreading nearly as much to be an issue. Hell, ebola looked like it was going to make more a scare than Zika is right now.

Beyond that, while I'm not saying a recession is definite, or even likely, there is still a chance that it could happen and some signs pointing in that direction.

http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-07-22/3-Reasons-The-U-S-Could-Fall-Into-Recession-In-2017.html

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uti2
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« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2016, 05:40:52 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2016, 05:43:01 PM by uti2 »

Provided she is elected? There could also be black swan events that benefit her and hurt the republicans, for instance, a zika outbreak, which would bring back the abortion debate and turn FL solid D.

Also, an economic recession doesn't necessarily hurt her, if gets to the point where we have an '08-style bailout that a republican congress refuses to pass, thus exacerbating the situation, the republicans would be equally blamed for that.

lol

These are the moderate suburban women who vote GOP for economic reasons, you get GOP-types calling for bans on abortion in all cases, when the polling data demonstrates that the public supports abortion for microcephaly even in the cases of late-term abortion, you'll alienate huge swathes of the GOP coalition:

http://liveactionnews.org/disturbing-new-poll-americans-support-late-term-abortion-zika-virus/

This is assuming that the Zika virus is actually going to be an issue even in 2017, much less 2020.

This is in the context of people assuming a 'recession' is going to be an issue in the next few years going by the same logic.

I think that a recession is much more likely than a serious Zika epidemic in Florida.

Why? And also, the republicans will use any kind of excuse to justify what they perceive to be a recession like in 2012, that's not to be confused with a real recession a la 2008, and such a real recession would have a bipartisan effect if it is actually serious.
http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/united-states.html

Zika isn't spreading nearly as much to be an issue. Hell, ebola looked like it was going to make more a scare than Zika is right now.

Beyond that, while I'm not saying a recession is definite, or even likely, there is still a chance that it could happen and some signs pointing in that direction.

http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-07-22/3-Reasons-The-U-S-Could-Fall-Into-Recession-In-2017.html



http://www.cbsnews.com/news/zika-virus-spreads-in-puerto-rico/

A Zika infection is nothing like an ebola infection, not only in terms of characteristics but also in terms of how they're spread. Zika is more like an STD.

Your posting conspiracy theory news goldbug sites that have been talking about an eternal recession since 2008, and since even before 2008, and the republicans tried to make the claim for a pseudo-recession back in 2012, and furthermore, if a real 2008 style recession occurred, it could damage the republicans just as much for the reasons I listed.
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