Looks like if Hillary loses and Texas keeps tightening..that the next Democratic President have a great shot at Texas.
Trump is a perfect storm of awful for Texas. The state is going purple, but not fast enough go for a Democrat to win anytime soon. A state that's 30% New Mexico and 70% Alabama is still safe R.
Not sure I totally agree with the NM/AL breakdown.
Reality is that Texas is actually more like 5 or 6 states smashed together, with extreme variations between the different regions, but combined with a "founding myth/narrative".
I didn't realize until I lived in Texas how powerful the foundation myth of Texas is, from the educational structure that talks about Sam Houston and his history fighting against discrimination against Native Peoples, opposition to the war of succession against the North, and the embracing of the Tejano culture as part of the foundation myth of Texas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXqSa1gRdb4
I think the best way to think of it is Texas is what you get if California went to church weekly. And the Silicon Valley of Texas is substantially smaller while its Bakersfield is substantially larger.
Skills & Chance----
You made me laugh again, but only because you spoke some fundamental truths within that pithy phrase...
Now within that, you are leaving DFW out of the mix, as well as El Paso, but it does seem to match the Houston/ EastTex mixed with some of the Austin/SA regions of the state. 
I guess San Antonio = religious San Diego also works. But then we are left comparing DFW to L.A. And that's a lot more of a stretch.
Houston is like Chicago.
Context: Obama defeated Romney here 49.4 to 49.3 while Ted Cruz won the county narrowly. This is not the sort of place Republicans should be losing badly.
Ted Cruz is from Houston, that's kind of an asterisk victory.
