LA - SMOR - Kennedy and Boustany lead jungle, Fayard leads Campbell
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  LA - SMOR - Kennedy and Boustany lead jungle, Fayard leads Campbell
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Author Topic: LA - SMOR - Kennedy and Boustany lead jungle, Fayard leads Campbell  (Read 754 times)
Senator & Ambassador Dwarven Dragon
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« on: September 21, 2016, 07:41:12 PM »

Kennedy (R) 17%
Boustany (R) 15%
Fayard (D) 11%
Campbell (D) 9%
Fleming (R) 8%
Maness (R) 3%
Duke (R) 3%
Cao (R) 2%
Pellerin (D) 2%
Hebert (I) 1%
Patel (R) <1%
Undecided/Other 28%

Runoff: Generic R 43%, Generic D 33%, Undecided 24%

(For some reason Gary Landrieu wasn't included)

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Sunmerican Dream.
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2016, 07:45:41 PM »

60% of Black voters are still undecided, so there will be no R vs. R runoff.

Good. Boustany deserves to be no where near a senate seat. #KennedyOrBust
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2016, 07:49:10 PM »

60% of Black voters are still undecided, so there will be no R vs. R runoff.

Good. Boustany deserves to be no where near a senate seat. #KennedyOrBust
Sunrise, why don't you like Boustany?

Miles, just curious, who do you think Blacks will break for more, Fayard or Campbell?
I also imagine Landrieu (if included) would have got maybe 2 or 3% because of his last name.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2016, 08:01:08 PM »

As long as Kennedy makes the runoff, he's got this.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2016, 08:03:23 PM »

Duke is tied with a real candidate (Maness).
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Vosem
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2016, 08:09:21 PM »

Landrieu is simply a perennial candidate who happens to have the same last name; the actual Landrieus have very publicly backed Caroline Fayard, even as JBE, who is quite popular, is running across the state for Foster Campbell. The goal here is obviously to split the Democratic vote as evenly as possible (differentiation is being kept minimal in the hopes of splitting the vote evenly, which is presumably why so many Democrats are undecided) and hope the Republicans all manage to drag each other downward. I'd imagine both finish in the high teens or low twenties in the end. The end result of the Kennedy/Boustany/Fleming pileup is unknowable, but I think the chances of 2 Democrats moving forward in a WA-Treas scenario is being underestimated (I noted in another thread that I think Caroline Fayard has a better chance of becoming a Senator than Patrick Murphy).
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2016, 08:12:10 PM »

Landrieu is simply a perennial candidate who happens to have the same last name; the actual Landrieus have very publicly backed Caroline Fayard, even as JBE, who is quite popular, is running across the state for Foster Campbell. The goal here is obviously to split the Democratic vote as evenly as possible (differentiation is being kept minimal in the hopes of splitting the vote evenly, which is presumably why so many Democrats are undecided) and hope the Republicans all manage to drag each other downward. I'd imagine both finish in the high teens or low twenties in the end. The end result of the Kennedy/Boustany/Fleming pileup is unknowable, but I think the chances of 2 Democrats moving forward in a WA-Treas scenario is being underestimated (I noted in another thread that I think Caroline Fayard has a better chance of becoming a Senator than Patrick Murphy).
I'm starting to get a little worried about this race. Fleming, Maness and Cao should just drop out and endorse Kennedy or Boustany. Also, who would be favored if a Fayard vs. Campbell runoff occurs?
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2016, 11:00:29 PM »

Landrieu is simply a perennial candidate who happens to have the same last name; the actual Landrieus have very publicly backed Caroline Fayard, even as JBE, who is quite popular, is running across the state for Foster Campbell. The goal here is obviously to split the Democratic vote as evenly as possible (differentiation is being kept minimal in the hopes of splitting the vote evenly, which is presumably why so many Democrats are undecided) and hope the Republicans all manage to drag each other downward. I'd imagine both finish in the high teens or low twenties in the end. The end result of the Kennedy/Boustany/Fleming pileup is unknowable, but I think the chances of 2 Democrats moving forward in a WA-Treas scenario is being underestimated (I noted in another thread that I think Caroline Fayard has a better chance of becoming a Senator than Patrick Murphy).
I'm starting to get a little worried about this race. Fleming, Maness and Cao should just drop out and endorse Kennedy or Boustany. Also, who would be favored if a Fayard vs. Campbell runoff occurs?

Campbell is known for being very anti-fossil fuels (so he'd provoke some spending against him from the very powerful oil industry in LA if he were in a runoff and had some serious chance at winning), and Fayard in general is just more conservative and has a less of a record to pin down than he does. I would actually be pretty confident of a Fayard victory in a runoff.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2016, 11:11:57 PM »

Fayard worries me...I wish flemming would win....sigh...
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« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2016, 10:49:26 AM »

Sure would be nice to get to choose between Fayard and Cao.
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Sunmerican Dream.
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« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2016, 08:23:33 PM »

60% of Black voters are still undecided, so there will be no R vs. R runoff.

Good. Boustany deserves to be no where near a senate seat. #KennedyOrBust
Sunrise, why don't you like Boustany?

Miles, just curious, who do you think Blacks will break for more, Fayard or Campbell?
I also imagine Landrieu (if included) would have got maybe 2 or 3% because of his last name.

Boustany's taken money from J-Street and has a pretty bad record on foreign policy as a whole.

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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2016, 09:52:06 PM »

^ Which is another reason he's better than Kennedy, Fleming, or Maness. Its nice that he's shown some independence on foreign policy.

Landry tried to play that card against him in the 2012 runoff, IIRC, but thankfully it didn't work.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2016, 09:55:45 PM »

^ Which is another reason he's better than Kennedy, Fleming, or Maness. Its nice that he's shown some independence on foreign policy.
Miles, I'm curious as to who you think will do better with Blacks between Fayard or Campbell? I'm interested in seeing which of the two main Democrats is stronger with Blacks since there are so many undecided Blacks in this poll.
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2016, 09:57:39 PM »

^ I've heard Campbell performing better with them. Yes, Kennedy has Mayor Landrieu's support, but Landrieu himself almost lost (or maybe actually lost) the black vote in New Orleans the last time he ran.
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Senator & Ambassador Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2016, 10:19:23 PM »

^ I've heard Campbell performing better with them. Yes, Kennedy has Mayor Landrieu's support, but Landrieu himself almost lost (or maybe actually lost) the black vote in New Orleans the last time he ran.

Do you mean Fayard? I can't see a Landrieu endorsing a republican.

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Heisenberg
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« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2016, 10:38:06 PM »

^ I've heard Campbell performing better with them. Yes, Kennedy has Mayor Landrieu's support, but Landrieu himself almost lost (or maybe actually lost) the black vote in New Orleans the last time he ran.

Do you mean Fayard? I can't see a Landrieu endorsing a republican.


Pretty sure he did mean Fayard, since earlier in this thread he mentioned that that's who the Landrieu family supports. I was also shocked to see that (Mitch) Landrieu did not do that well with Blacks in his most recent race. I thought that the Landrieus were really really popular among Blacks, as Moon Landrieu (Mary and Mitch's father) desegregated New Orleans.
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Miles
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« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2016, 10:46:36 PM »

^ Yeah, dunno why I wrote Kennedy instead. Maybe if this were 2004...

Mitch Landrieu lost ground with black voters in 2014. He got about the same share of the vote in 2010 (66% vs 64%). I did the Landrieu vs non-Landrieu vote and did the swing - it breaks down pretty cleanly along racial lines:

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