Seems pretty clear right now that all three are up, but none of them are up by those margins. With Burr and Portman it makes sense considering the lean of the year and their states and the campaigns that have been waged.
After the Angle/Reid race in 2010, I'm loathe to call anything for Nevada Republicans until the votes come in, but it seems pretty clear the lead Heck has is at least stronger than the lead Angle had; no poll after June had her up by more than 4. (If any of you don't recall, the final average had her up 3, and Reid won by 6, so if you think the error will be similar this is no proof that Heck is winning. In 2012, on the contrary, the final average had Heller up by 4 and he won by 1; in that case, on the other hand, only one poll, a rogue September PPP, had Berkley up during the entire calendar year 2012, though there were multiple ties).
At the moment, including this poll but weirdly not including the recent PPP, RCP has Heck up 3. If the error is similar to 2012, this race is an exact tie. If it is similar to 2010, then Masto is up 6, though that seems doubtful. (In the 2014-Gov race, on the other hand, the average had Sandoval up by 25 but he won by 47; if that repeats, Heck will win by 25 points
). This is exactly what makes Nevada so damn frustrating.
