Fox News: Trump leads by 3 in NV, 5 in OH, and 5 in NC

[dspNY]

Fox is trying to give their guy a boost here

LOL

I immediately call junk on the Nevada poll with Hispanics giving Clinton a narrow lead when actual Hispanic pollsters have her at over 70% and Trump at under 20%

[dspNY]

Did some back of the envelope calculations for NC and they undersampled nonwhites by 5% in this poll. Nonwhites are 30% of the electorate in NC and the numbers FOX put out indicate a 75% white, 25% nonwhite electorate. If you adjust that properly then it is virtually tied

In Ohio they don't even have a crosstab for African-American voters! They could be 15% of the vote in OH

[dspNY]

Also did the back of the envelope calculation for Ohio and whites comprise 87% of the poll

[dspNY]

Trump isn't going to win Nevada, and a win in NC will only be by the wispy hairs on his ass.

Latino Decisions has NV at 70-14 Clinton with Hispanics. Once you plug that into the Fox poll instead of their ridiculous 46-36 margin it becomes more believable.

Fox's North Carolina poll was 75% white after doing the math on the back of an envelope. I trust PPP there (tied to a VERY narrow Trump lead). They have the correct demographic sample in their home state.

Ohio I believe is a Trump lead but is the electorate really going to be 86% or 87% white? That's the number I came up with after doing the back-calculations. 80% white and 20% non-white is more probable