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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  nyc mayor race (search mode)
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Author Topic: nyc mayor race  (Read 2397 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
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Posts: 27,654


« on: June 29, 2005, 03:42:28 pm »

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NY State (and City) registers and votes by party. 

Amusingly, I have a friend up there, native New York City, who fills the classic Southern Democrat mode: registered Democrat, votes Republican.

As to your question, is there any place in the city where Republicans outnumber Democrats.

My answer would be Staten Island, possibly.  Any other parts of city?  Not really.  Maybe where the Hasidim dominate (ultra-orthodox Jews), maybe Williamsburg, but that's probably not true.

Bloomberg will win simply because he knows how to run a city properly, has the support of the socially liberal groups (esp. the Jews), and the blacks and Puerto Ricans remain divided.

The Rudy coalition of voters that developed and beat David Dinkins has amazingly managed to stay intact, something that I would not have predicted twelve years ago.
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
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Posts: 27,654


« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2005, 11:25:51 pm »

Since I haven't seen a NYC Mayor race thread other than this one, I'm going to post this new New York Daily News poll here.

Looks like barring some major reversal, Bloomberg is cruising to re-election.

61% approve, 29% disapprove

Against Ferrer: Bloomberg 50%, Ferrer 36%
Against Fields: Bloomberg 53%, Fields 32%
Against Weiner or Miller: They don't say the numbers, but he is ahead of both of them by at least 22% or more.

http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/326812p-279291c.html

Mayor soars in poll

Despite Olympic bust, he leaves foes in dust

BY DAVID SALTONSTALL
DAILY NEWS CITY HALL BUREAU CHIEF

Mayor Bloomberg's approval rating is at its highest level since the early, honeymoon days of his mayoralty - giving him comfortable leads over all his Democratic rivals, a new Daily News poll shows.

The poll found that 61% of voters now approve of the job the Republican Bloomberg is doing, compared with just 29% who do not, according to the survey.

That's an almost complete reversal of fortune for Bloomberg since mid-2003, when mammoth budget deficits and an 18% property tax increase combined to turn a record two-thirds of New Yorkers against him.

Many said then they'd never vote for him - ever.

But the most recent poll found that if the November election were today, Bloomberg would best Democratic front-runner Fernando Ferrer 50% to 36%.

Other Democrats in the race wouldn't fare any better. Manhattan Borough President Virginia Fields would lose 32% to 53%, while City Council Speaker Gifford Miller and Congressman Anthony Weiner of Queens would trail by a cavernous 22% or more.

Bloomberg, whose approval rating hasn't cracked 60% since the first few months of his term, is riding a crest of support driven by rising school test scores, declining crime and budgets that now include $400 property tax rebates to offset increases of yesteryear, experts said.

His campaign also is spending an estimated $1 million per week on advertising - money his opponents don't have.

"There have been few sour notes for him recently," said Julie Weprin of Blum & Weprin Associates, which conducted the poll for The News.

More recently, Bloomberg's handling of a bias attack in Howard Beach, Queens - in which a white teen allegedly clubbed a black man with a baseball bat - seems to have drawn solid marks.

The poll found that 42% of city residents approved of the mayor's swift denunciation of the attackers, followed by his vow to press for tough punishments. That's more than double the 20% who did not.

More importantly, pollsters said, the mayor's support for his Howard Beach response was spread evenly across whites, blacks and Hispanics.

"Once upon a time in this city, you would have seen very strong racial divisions in a case like that," said Weprin. "The fact that we didn't this time bodes well for Mayor Bloomberg."

Indeed, the poll underscores how thin support is for top contenders Ferrer and Fields, even among Democrats.

While Fields, the only African-American in the race, still holds a commanding lead over Bloomberg among blacks, for instance, more Democrats and Manhattanites would vote for Bloomberg than her in a head-to-head matchup.

Similarly, while Ferrer does well in his home borough of the Bronx and among Latinos, Bloomberg is essentially tied with Ferrer among blacks and Democrats, while whites favor the mayor more than two to one.

"Bloomberg's support is wide and deep," said Weprin, "while his opponents really have very small groups of constituents that they can look to."
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