NH-Monmouth: Ayotte +2 (user search)
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  NH-Monmouth: Ayotte +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NH-Monmouth: Ayotte +2  (Read 3033 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

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« on: September 21, 2016, 12:21:32 PM »

TN Volunteer is going to hate me for this, but back to Toss-Up it goes. Emerson, Marist, and Monmouth can't all be wrong.

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,687
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2016, 01:04:16 PM »

Monmouth has been showing some strange gaps between Senate races and Presidential races. I'm not sure why NH would swing so hard again Hassan, but Hillary's numbers would hold up.

People want Hillary because of who the alternative is, but they don't necessarily want to give her a lot of power to actually do stuff.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,687
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2016, 01:16:30 PM »

Monmouth has been showing some strange gaps between Senate races and Presidential races. I'm not sure why NH would swing so hard again Hassan, but Hillary's numbers would hold up.

People want Hillary because of who the alternative is, but they don't necessarily want to give her a lot of power to actually do stuff.

I doubt most voters think that far ahead.

Sure, a large majority don't, but those that do is what's creating this disparity we're seeing where Clinton gaining in the presidential race doesn't often equal equivalent gains in senate races.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,687
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2016, 01:48:55 PM »

A Republican incumbent at 45% in a blue state, with most undecideds being closeted Hassan supporters? Terrible poll for Ayotte, even though I think she won't lose by more than 3 or 4 points. Still Safe D for now.

She's at 47%. In no other state would a candidate at 47% be considered to have no chance of winning. It's only fair that this goes to Toss-Up (granted I only had it at Lean D, but still)

Unless Ayotte breaks 50% in the polls (not happening), Hassan will win. She's outspending her by aa lot, has a strong ground game and NH is a blue state so most undecideds are likely Democrats. People are getting fooled by those NH polls showing a close race, like in 2012 and 2014. Keep holding out hope but don't be surprised when Ayotte loses on election day.

There is a libertarian candidate on the ballot, so Ayotte might not need 50%, and please, this isn't Massachusetts, undecideds aren't going to break 100% Hassan.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,687
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2016, 01:52:10 PM »

Unless Ayotte breaks 50% in the pre-election polls (not happening), Hassan will win. She's outspending her by a lot, has a strong ground game and NH is a blue state so most undecideds are likely Democrats. People are getting fooled by those NH polls showing a close race, like in 2012 and 2014. Keep holding out hope but don't be surprised when Ayotte loses on election day.

Oh, and I'll also point out that Brown was never in the lead outside of a few very R-biased polls. Ayotte has been found ahead by Emerson, Monmouth, and Marist, which have varying political leanings.
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