|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 07, 2020, 12:12:10 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  nyc mayor race
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: nyc mayor race  (Read 2419 times)
WalterMitty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,588


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 29, 2005, 03:29:27 pm »

it looks like bloomberg is cruising to a second term.

it would be very odd if a city as democratic as nyc elected a republican mayor 4 straight elections.  i know both rudy and bloomberg are on the 'liberal' side, but it is still baffling that the democrats cant perform any better in the big apple.

nyc experts out there, tell me if there is any place in the city where republicans out number democrats?  or at the very least, is there any place in the city where republicans have a significant minority of registered voters?  or does ny not  register by party?
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,416


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2005, 03:33:54 pm »

Giuliani was not on the liberal side. Bloomberg is. He was a former Democrat who only switched over for convenience purposes. New Yorkers vote for a person and their actions, not a letter... and this election is being fought over crime, education, housing and finances... all of which are getting better except for housing.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,654


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2005, 03:42:28 pm »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

NY State (and City) registers and votes by party. 

Amusingly, I have a friend up there, native New York City, who fills the classic Southern Democrat mode: registered Democrat, votes Republican.

As to your question, is there any place in the city where Republicans outnumber Democrats.

My answer would be Staten Island, possibly.  Any other parts of city?  Not really.  Maybe where the Hasidim dominate (ultra-orthodox Jews), maybe Williamsburg, but that's probably not true.

Bloomberg will win simply because he knows how to run a city properly, has the support of the socially liberal groups (esp. the Jews), and the blacks and Puerto Ricans remain divided.

The Rudy coalition of voters that developed and beat David Dinkins has amazingly managed to stay intact, something that I would not have predicted twelve years ago.
Logged
nini2287
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,624


Political Matrix
E: 2.77, S: -3.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2005, 12:44:05 am »

I think that Dems probably outnumber Republicans on Staten Island.  It voted overwhelmingly for Clinton and Gore, but flipped to Bush in 2004.  It does have a Republican congressman though.
Logged
Defarge
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,601


Political Matrix
E: -3.13, S: -0.72

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2005, 01:08:36 am »

As everyone has said, Staten Island is probably the only part of the city where there might be more Republicans than Democrats.

In all honesty, Bloomberg hasn't done anything wrong that warrants throwing him out of office, and as partisan as I am, I'm pulling for Bloomberg this November.  NYC Democrats, bless their souls they try, but considering the disaster that the city became under Democrats, I have no problem with keeping Bloomberg in office.
Logged
TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,489


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2005, 01:21:54 am »

As everyone has said, Staten Island is probably the only part of the city where there might be more Republicans than Democrats.

In all honesty, Bloomberg hasn't done anything wrong that warrants throwing him out of office, and as partisan as I am, I'm pulling for Bloomberg this November.  NYC Democrats, bless their souls they try, but considering the disaster that the city became under Democrats, I have no problem with keeping Bloomberg in office.

I said the same thing about Sam Katz, who was once by the way a Democrat.  I'm wondering who the Philly GOP nominee will be?  If I don't get the Dem I like, I may very well consider voting GOP again for that race only.
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,954


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2005, 01:30:42 am »

As everyone has said, Staten Island is probably the only part of the city where there might be more Republicans than Democrats.

In all honesty, Bloomberg hasn't done anything wrong that warrants throwing him out of office, and as partisan as I am, I'm pulling for Bloomberg this November.  NYC Democrats, bless their souls they try, but considering the disaster that the city became under Democrats, I have no problem with keeping Bloomberg in office.

from wikipedia

Politically, Staten Island has been friendlier to Republicans than other areas of New York City.

Even though there are far more registered Democrats than Republicans, the island has only voted for the Democratic presidential nominee three times since 1952 — in 1964, 1996 and 2000. In 2004 George W. Bush received 57% of the island's votes to 42% for John Kerry; by contrast, Kerry outpolled Bush in the city's other four boroughs cumulatively by a margin of 77% to 22%. The congressional district which includes Staten Island has been in Republican hands since 1981 and is currently represented by Vito Fossella, elected in a 1997 special election to replace Susan Molinari. Its borough president is Republican James Molinaro, elected in 2001. Two of the three Republicans who sit on the New York City Council are also from Staten Island; however, the portion of the island north of the Staten Island Expressway votes mainly Democratic.

George Pataki received a majority of Staten Island's votes in the 2002 gubernatorial election, and Michael Bloomberg overwhelmingly carried the island in the mayoral election of 2001 (84,891 to 23,664).

Hence, if Staten Island is arguably a swing county in federal elections, it is a Republican stronghold in city elections. Most local political scientists cite law and order as the issue that resonates most strongly with island voters, at least on the local level.



I am pulling for the Dems in the mayor race, but I have know real problem with Bloomberg, and he is basically a Democrat anyway.  He was registered as a Dem & the only reason he changed parties is the Republican Primary was much easier than the Dem Primary.

Also I don't really put on that much blame on the Dems for the city's problems, during the 80's & early 90's.  Keep in mind violence & crime rates were up across the country as a whole then.  New York had a pretty high rate & those in power should get some of the reasponability, but NYC wasn't exactly the most dangerous city either.  I can't find the link, but remember seeing that during the 80's & early 90's as far as crime rate & what not goes NYC was pretty much in the middle of the pack as far as cities with large cities (pop above 500k).  Now it is the lowest & NYC has gotten much better, but compared to other major cities NYC was never all that bad even in its highest peak crime days (crime rates across the U.S were sharply higher in the 80's & early 90's)
Logged
Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,075
Israel


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2005, 02:04:38 am »

If the race comes down to Bloomberg vs. Freddy Ferrer, I'll have to reluctantly support Bloomberg. Mainly because only the Republicans can keep crime down in NYC. If the trends of the past 6 months continue, 2005 will see the number of murders cut from 2,245 in 1990 to about 500 this year. Thats a 78% drop!

Reasons I don't like Bloomberg: He is a billionaire who is obsessed with massive wastes of time like stadiums and Olympics that no one in the city wants.

Also, he actively tried to get the '04 GOP convention to be in NYC and that is inexcusable since it helped the party increase its vote along the Northeast corridor in November.

I miss having Guiliani as mayor. If I lived in the city I'd vote for Council Speaker Gifford Miller in the primary.
Logged
Bono
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,702
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 30, 2005, 03:26:19 am »

Giuliani was not on the liberal side. Bloomberg is. He was a former Democrat who only switched over for convenience purposes. New Yorkers vote for a person and their actions, not a letter... and this election is being fought over crime, education, housing and finances... all of which are getting better except for housing.

Jiuliana was very much on the liberal side.
He's a gun grabber as they come.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,239
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 30, 2005, 04:55:15 am »

New York does not vote for persons in local  politics. It votes for skin colours.
Republicans have often been competitive in NYC politics, just never in presidentials. (IIRC Republican presidential candidates carried NYC in 1896, 1920, and 1924. That's it.) Southwest Brooklyn has areas where Republicans are competitive in federal races. North Queens must have some corners too.
Logged
AuH2O
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,239


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 30, 2005, 12:15:19 pm »

There are parts of Queens that are majority Republican, but the overall numbers are of course Democratic.

Lewis makes the key point here: race is key. Republicans can win because Democrats are so divided... granted, any Republican that wins has to have certain positions on some social issues, but that's not really what the Mayor's job is all about anyway.
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,954


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 30, 2005, 10:10:07 pm »

Giuliani was not on the liberal side. Bloomberg is. He was a former Democrat who only switched over for convenience purposes. New Yorkers vote for a person and their actions, not a letter... and this election is being fought over crime, education, housing and finances... all of which are getting better except for housing.

Giuliani is quite liberal on social issues.  pro gay rights (pro gay marriage) past one of the first domestic partnership laws in 97, very pro choice, andti PBA ban,, pro- Gun Control
Logged
jokerman
Cosmo Kramer
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,969
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2005, 01:28:53 pm »

Giuliani was not on the liberal side. Bloomberg is. He was a former Democrat who only switched over for convenience purposes. New Yorkers vote for a person and their actions, not a letter... and this election is being fought over crime, education, housing and finances... all of which are getting better except for housing.

Giuliani is quite liberal on social issues.  pro gay rights (pro gay marriage) past one of the first domestic partnership laws in 97, very pro choice, andti PBA ban,, pro- Gun Control
I knew he was a social liberal, but I didn't know he was that liberal.  He could never win the GOP nomination and if he did, I could see Evan Bayh or Mark Warner carrying the entire south except for maybe Alabama.
Logged
dazzleman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,784
Political Matrix
E: 1.88, S: 1.59

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2005, 02:53:18 pm »

Democrats outnumber Republicans by a wide margin in New York, and the only part of the city that is really Republican is Staten Island, and it is small.

But at the local level, regardless of party, the city is divided by race, and as a result, Republicans have been competitive in every mayoral election since 1989, when racial tensions were particularly bad.

Blacks and poorer hispanics are strongly Democratic, while working class whites and upwardly mobile hispanics go toward the Republicans in mayoral elections.  The swing vote is the guilty white liberal Manhattan elite, who will only stick with the blacks to a certain point.  In 1989, these voters favored Democrat David Dinkins, but in 1993, things were so bad that many of them defected to Giuliani, and stuck with him in 1997.

In 2001, the racial resentment that the Democrats have been milking for so long bit them in the azz when a white candidate beat a hispanic in the Democratic primary, causing some blacks to stay home in protest, and causing some hispanics to vote for Bloomberg.

Working class white voters and upwardly mobile hispanics fear the return of a mayor who is either black or dependent upon black support, because blacks don't support the aggressive anti-crime measures that have brought the city's crime rate down by 60%.  They fear that under a Democratic mayor, blacks will have a free pass, effectively, to commit crimes in their neighborhoods, as they did under Dinkins.  For that reason, they will continue to vote Republican.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,025
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2005, 04:22:36 pm »


Within the context of running a City, that isn't a liberal position to take. Quite the reverse actually.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,025
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2005, 04:25:16 pm »

Dazzleman: do you know where there's detailed (by borough and lower if possible) results of NY Mayoral and etc elections?
Logged
dazzleman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,784
Political Matrix
E: 1.88, S: 1.59

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2005, 10:05:05 pm »

Dazzleman: do you know where there's detailed (by borough and lower if possible) results of NY Mayoral and etc elections?

I remember reading detailed results on the elections, to the precinct level within the boroughs, in the NY Times.  So you could try the NY Times archives, but I don't know if stuff that's more than a year or so old is available online.

Another source could be either the New York City Board of Elections, or the board of elections at the state level.

If you know the racial and ethnic composition of New York City neighborhoods, as I generally do, it was striking in the past few elections to see the racial divisions show up in the voting numbers, with huge differences in voting among adjacent communities depending upon the predominant race of the residents.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,025
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 03, 2005, 06:12:13 am »

Thanks Smiley
Logged
dazzleman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,784
Political Matrix
E: 1.88, S: 1.59

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 03, 2005, 06:36:00 am »


I hope you can find what you're looking for.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,654


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 10, 2005, 11:25:51 pm »

Since I haven't seen a NYC Mayor race thread other than this one, I'm going to post this new New York Daily News poll here.

Looks like barring some major reversal, Bloomberg is cruising to re-election.

61% approve, 29% disapprove

Against Ferrer: Bloomberg 50%, Ferrer 36%
Against Fields: Bloomberg 53%, Fields 32%
Against Weiner or Miller: They don't say the numbers, but he is ahead of both of them by at least 22% or more.

http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/326812p-279291c.html

Mayor soars in poll

Despite Olympic bust, he leaves foes in dust

BY DAVID SALTONSTALL
DAILY NEWS CITY HALL BUREAU CHIEF

Mayor Bloomberg's approval rating is at its highest level since the early, honeymoon days of his mayoralty - giving him comfortable leads over all his Democratic rivals, a new Daily News poll shows.

The poll found that 61% of voters now approve of the job the Republican Bloomberg is doing, compared with just 29% who do not, according to the survey.

That's an almost complete reversal of fortune for Bloomberg since mid-2003, when mammoth budget deficits and an 18% property tax increase combined to turn a record two-thirds of New Yorkers against him.

Many said then they'd never vote for him - ever.

But the most recent poll found that if the November election were today, Bloomberg would best Democratic front-runner Fernando Ferrer 50% to 36%.

Other Democrats in the race wouldn't fare any better. Manhattan Borough President Virginia Fields would lose 32% to 53%, while City Council Speaker Gifford Miller and Congressman Anthony Weiner of Queens would trail by a cavernous 22% or more.

Bloomberg, whose approval rating hasn't cracked 60% since the first few months of his term, is riding a crest of support driven by rising school test scores, declining crime and budgets that now include $400 property tax rebates to offset increases of yesteryear, experts said.

His campaign also is spending an estimated $1 million per week on advertising - money his opponents don't have.

"There have been few sour notes for him recently," said Julie Weprin of Blum & Weprin Associates, which conducted the poll for The News.

More recently, Bloomberg's handling of a bias attack in Howard Beach, Queens - in which a white teen allegedly clubbed a black man with a baseball bat - seems to have drawn solid marks.

The poll found that 42% of city residents approved of the mayor's swift denunciation of the attackers, followed by his vow to press for tough punishments. That's more than double the 20% who did not.

More importantly, pollsters said, the mayor's support for his Howard Beach response was spread evenly across whites, blacks and Hispanics.

"Once upon a time in this city, you would have seen very strong racial divisions in a case like that," said Weprin. "The fact that we didn't this time bodes well for Mayor Bloomberg."

Indeed, the poll underscores how thin support is for top contenders Ferrer and Fields, even among Democrats.

While Fields, the only African-American in the race, still holds a commanding lead over Bloomberg among blacks, for instance, more Democrats and Manhattanites would vote for Bloomberg than her in a head-to-head matchup.

Similarly, while Ferrer does well in his home borough of the Bronx and among Latinos, Bloomberg is essentially tied with Ferrer among blacks and Democrats, while whites favor the mayor more than two to one.

"Bloomberg's support is wide and deep," said Weprin, "while his opponents really have very small groups of constituents that they can look to."
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,025
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 11, 2005, 06:08:45 am »


Giuliani got over 80% (!) in Staten Island in first win...
Logged
Defarge
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,601


Political Matrix
E: -3.13, S: -0.72

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 11, 2005, 02:10:48 pm »

Bloomberg deserves to be reelected. He may have failed on many of his projects, the West Side Stadium and the Olympics to name a few, but his dedication to them improved his image in the city.  Maybe in another four years the Democrats will get their act together in NYC.
Logged
Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,075
Israel


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 12, 2005, 09:53:22 am »

Since I haven't seen a NYC Mayor race thread other than this one, I'm going to post this new New York Daily News poll here.

Looks like barring some major reversal, Bloomberg is cruising to re-election.

61% approve, 29% disapprove

Against Ferrer: Bloomberg 50%, Ferrer 36%
Against Fields: Bloomberg 53%, Fields 32%
Against Weiner or Miller: They don't say the numbers, but he is ahead of both of them by at least 22% or more.

http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/326812p-279291c.html

Mayor soars in poll

Despite Olympic bust, he leaves foes in dust

BY DAVID SALTONSTALL
DAILY NEWS CITY HALL BUREAU CHIEF

Mayor Bloomberg's approval rating is at its highest level since the early, honeymoon days of his mayoralty - giving him comfortable leads over all his Democratic rivals, a new Daily News poll shows.

The poll found that 61% of voters now approve of the job the Republican Bloomberg is doing, compared with just 29% who do not, according to the survey.

That's an almost complete reversal of fortune for Bloomberg since mid-2003, when mammoth budget deficits and an 18% property tax increase combined to turn a record two-thirds of New Yorkers against him.


The New York Times had a similar story and poll last month which showed Bloomberg with about 60% Approval. I'd add that his 2003 unpopularity was also influenced by the much hated smoking ban in bars and restaurants from April of that year.

I wonder why Gifford Miller isn't popular? I guess its because he is young still (in his 30's). Bloomberg should be re-elected because of the glorious decline in crime but on everything else I'd support Miller. (Not Ferrer or Fields)
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines