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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  1992: States where Perot cost Bush the electoral votes
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Author Topic: 1992: States where Perot cost Bush the electoral votes  (Read 1648 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: September 20, 2016, 12:45:11 pm »

Clinton still would have won the election without Perot, but it would have been closer. On a state by state basis, it looks like there are a handful of states that Bush most likely would have won without Perot on the ballot.

Maine
New Hampshire
Georgia
Montana
Colorado

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tinman64
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2016, 01:00:16 pm »

I'd throw Nevada and perhaps New Jersey in the list as well.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2016, 01:05:33 pm »

Clinton still would have won the election without Perot, but it would have been closer. On a state by state basis, it looks like there are a handful of states that Bush most likely would have won without Perot on the ballot.

Maine
New Hampshire
Georgia
Montana
Colorado



I'd take Maine and Colorado off and add Ohio.
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2016, 07:11:23 pm »

Ohio , New Jersey , Nevada should be added
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Hilldog
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2016, 10:42:44 pm »

Maybe OH, GA, NH, MT, NV, and NJ, but there's no evidence of this.  Exit polling among voters showed they split Perot's vote 30/30 and the rest would've stayed home.
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Nym90
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2016, 02:28:21 pm »

There's no evidence that Perot's voters would have disproportionately backed Bush over Clinton.
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DS0816
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2016, 03:48:45 pm »

At most Montana.
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Nym90
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2016, 02:34:22 pm »

I ran a regression analysis a few months ago and there was actually a negative correlation between Perot's vote percentage and the Democratic "trend" (in Atlas terminology) in a state, while if Perot was taking votes disproportionately from Bush, you'd expect a positive correlation. Someone else did mention they had seen studies that there was a positive correlation at the county level, however.

So I would say the above, combined with exit polls showing that Perot's voters would've split evenly, makes it impossible to say with any certainty that Perot affected the outcome one way or the other.

A more persuasive argument might be that Perot tended to attack Bush more than Clinton during the campaign and thus drove up Bush's negatives higher than they would have been if he hadn't run, though I'd be interested in seeing data on that as opposed to just anecdotes.
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Fuzzy Bear Knows A Purge When He Sees One
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2016, 09:17:39 pm »

Clinton still would have won the election without Perot, but it would have been closer. On a state by state basis, it looks like there are a handful of states that Bush most likely would have won without Perot on the ballot.

Maine
New Hampshire
Georgia
Montana
Colorado

The states that cost Bush in 1992 probably went for Dole in 2000.

Montana, Georgia, and Colorado are in this category as was Nevada back then.  I would argue that Tennessee was in that category as well; it would have went for Gore in 2000 if it were not.

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Heisenberg
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« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2016, 02:59:28 pm »

There's no evidence that Perot's voters would have disproportionately backed Bush over Clinton.
That's right, but it is generally believed that in some states Perot took more votes from Bush, and in others he took more from Clinton, right? As the OP said,
Clinton still would have won the election without Perot, but it would have been closer.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2016, 03:55:35 pm »

Bum is just talking $$$$ again. Bush would have clearly won.
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Badger
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« Reply #11 on: October 10, 2016, 12:20:17 am »

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Nym90
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« Reply #12 on: October 10, 2016, 12:41:52 am »

There's no evidence that Perot's voters would have disproportionately backed Bush over Clinton.
That's right, but it is generally believed that in some states Perot took more votes from Bush, and in others he took more from Clinton, right? As the OP said,
Clinton still would have won the election without Perot, but it would have been closer.

Ok, but I'm disputing it would have been closer overall. Sure, some states he took from one more than another.
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