When, if ever, will NC vote to the left of PA?
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  When, if ever, will NC vote to the left of PA?
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Author Topic: When, if ever, will NC vote to the left of PA?  (Read 1104 times)
‼realJohnEwards‼
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« on: September 18, 2016, 08:07:05 PM »

Two states trending in opposite directions... when will they pass one another? Will they both be to the left of the nation, or the right?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2016, 10:27:38 PM »

In 2028, I could see a potential GOP Vice President(say, Mia Love or Michele Fiore) getting this against Jason Carter or Michelle Nunn or Gwen Graham:


Probably either 2020 or 2024 to answer the OP.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2016, 10:48:09 PM »

In 2028, I could see a potential GOP Vice President(say, Mia Love or Michele Fiore) getting this against Jason Carter or Michelle Nunn or Gwen Graham:


Probably either 2020 or 2024 to answer the OP.
A map where Pennsylvania is the only one of the 13 colonies to vote Republican is very interesting. Also, I hope Michele Fiore never gets to any statewide or federal office. She is crazy.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2016, 11:12:28 PM »

We all thought PA would trend R this year, but it's looking like it might not. The "TREND R PA!!" meme might be exaggerated, so I'm not sure when NC will be to the left of PA.
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Figueira
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2016, 11:33:57 AM »

In 2028, I could see a potential GOP Vice President(say, Mia Love or Michele Fiore) getting this against Jason Carter or Michelle Nunn or Gwen Graham:


Probably either 2020 or 2024 to answer the OP.

Alabama isn't voting Democratic any time soon.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2016, 04:05:48 PM »

In 2028, I could see a potential GOP Vice President(say, Mia Love or Michele Fiore) getting this against Jason Carter or Michelle Nunn or Gwen Graham:


Probably either 2020 or 2024 to answer the OP.

Alabama isn't voting Democratic any time soon.

Sen. Gwen Graham/Gov. Artur Davis v. VP Mia Love/Senator Adam Kinzinger?
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2016, 02:34:26 PM »

Not in the foreseeable future.
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hopper
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2016, 02:55:14 PM »

Maybe somewhere around 2028 NC will move to the left of PA if currents trends keep on going where they are going.
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Hilldog
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2016, 10:02:42 PM »

Trends don't go on forever so eventually NC will stop trending.  Even now it's center right and the trend seems to be slow.  There's an argument that it's 8 years behind VA, but VA has continued its trend. PA is actually about the same it's always been since the 50's.  The key in PA is swayable votes.  There's been elections where Republicans have won by 5, but PA is virtually tied.  Meanwhile in 2008 Obama won it by only 4 points left of center.  It trends to the middle, but when Democrats need the state, the votes are always there.  This is due largely to the political money in Philadelphia.  For Republicans to win PA they'd have to get better than 51% of the popular vote. This is pretty much the same for the 1960 election.
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AGA
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2016, 06:10:39 PM »

Probably in 2028. However, it could happen in 2024 with a Republican that is a good fit for Pennsylvania or a Democrat who is strong in the South.
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Smash255
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2016, 11:07:44 PM »

The whole premise is a bit flawed considering that PA isn't actually trending Republican.  PA will basically continue to stay where it is (though pockets of the state will shift) as a couple points more Democratic than the nation.  NC will continue a steady (though not hard) shift towards the Democrats and will probably take about 3 election cycles to get there
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Vern
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2016, 03:03:29 PM »

I say 2020.
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