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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virgini)
  Looks like it's over for Arnold (search mode)
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Author Topic: Looks like it's over for Arnold  (Read 6239 times)
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jfern
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,250


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: June 29, 2005, 02:39:05 am »

Support Arnold's re-election
39% yes
57% no

Angelides 46%
Arnold 42%

Westly 44%
Arnold 40%

State on right direction
28% yes
59 % no

Good job as governor 31%

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/06/29/FIELD.TMP
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jfern
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,250


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2005, 03:59:12 pm »


A two-thirds majority should be required to appropriate any funds in the legislature.

A 2/3rds majority is required to raise taxes. That explains a lot a lot of our budget problems right there. Now are you in favor of 67 Senators required to confirm a nominee?
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jfern
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,250


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2005, 05:55:43 pm »


A two-thirds majority should be required to appropriate any funds in the legislature.

A 2/3rds majority is required to raise taxes. That explains a lot a lot of our budget problems right there. Now are you in favor of 67 Senators required to confirm a nominee?

I said two-thirds majority to spend money. Given your budget situation, I think that would make sense.

That makes no sense. NY spends close to double per capita.
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jfern
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,250


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2005, 02:04:54 am »

Forst of all, as Arnold shwoed in the stem cell debate, he is very much not a typical conservative on social issues.  He did reach out in that issue.  Further, his plan to reform Califonria's election system by having judges redistrict instead of the legislature drawing their own districts, shows that he has in fact stood up to special interests.  The fact that the deficit has been cut from $22 billion to $8 billion shows that he addressed the budget issue in a serious way, and he had to earn Democrat votes to get it done.  The fact that he reformed workman's comp laws shows that he can complete important reforms and fulfill his campaign promises.

I have to say, anyone who thinks Arnold isn't doing what he said he'd do isn't looking at the facts.

The reason Arnold has a low rating is threefold: The first reason is that California Governor's, including Pat Brown in 1961 and Pete Wilson in 1993, have low approval ratings a year before their re-election.  This is typical, and it doesn't last.  Both those men rebounded and defeated formidable opponents to get re-elected.

The second is foot in mouth disease.  Arnold has said some stupid things that reinforce the diea that he isn't serious.  His legislative record says otherwise, but people often don't look at the person's actual record out here until the election actually comes, they work off perception and the culture out here is very cynical.  But once the election comes around, Arnold's accomplishments combined with his charisma and warchest will carry the day easily.

The third, and most important reason, is that Arnold has sat on his money to dominate the airwaves during the Special election.  His opponents have been spending all their money right now on attack ads.  So his opponents are barely ahead having spent all this money attacking the Governor while the Governor is sitting on the largest warchest, almost entirely untapped until now, in the history of the state.  When that money is unleashed, the charisma and persuasiveness that won Arnold the Govenrorship will send home a clear and concise mesage to support Arnold's reforms in the special election and to re-elect the Governor one year from now.  Whose shoes would you really rather be in?  The side that's down a few points now but has all the money and time in the world, or the side that's barely squeeked ahead and has already played its best cards?

Wow, so Arnold agrees with me like 15% of the time versus 0% for Bush because of issues like stem cell research? Sorry, that's not exactly going to save his ass. Arnold's approval ratings have dropped faster than even Davis' ratings.

Calling the state legislature girlie-men isn't getting sh**t done. Time to replace him with a grown-up.
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jfern
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,250


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2005, 01:30:28 am »

Damnit, why didn't they poll Democrats on the Westly v. Angelides primary?

I forget the numbers, but Angelides is leading.
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