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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Looks like it's over for Arnold (search mode)
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Author Topic: Looks like it's over for Arnold  (Read 6241 times)
socaldem
skolodji
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Posts: 1,040


« on: June 29, 2005, 05:22:50 am »

I wouldn't count Arnold out yet. Remember Pete Wilson back in '94? Remember how he was trailing behide Kathleen Brown by over 23 points and turned the election around and won 55% to 44%. It's too early to count Arnold out now, we still have along way to go before  the June 6th Primaries  and the November 7 General Election.

True...but its hard to make any comparisons to the Republican landslide in 1994.. California was more conservative back then... Pete Wilson was a very crafty politician, Ahnold is an amateur...  Angelides and Westly, imo, are better prepared than Kathleen Brown...  and even if Arnold did not face his own personal popularity issues, he would have to deal with the albatross of President Bush hanging around his neck...

At the same time, the state Democratic party is not very popular either... I get the feeling, however, that voters are tired of lashing out at politicians.  Angelides or Westley will need to find a way to truly rise above partisan politics--and the circus of Arnold--to show that they can get things done for the state...
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socaldem
skolodji
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,040


« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2005, 05:27:38 am »

Support Arnold's re-election
39% yes
57% no

Angelides 46%
Arnold 42%

Westly 44%
Arnold 40%

State on right direction
28% yes
59 % no

Good job as governor 31%

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/06/29/FIELD.TMP

--

according to the poll, Arnold's reelect in the Inland empire is 47/47 and even Central valley voters have a negative view of him.  Thjis seems to indicate potential, imo, for populist attacks on the gov in these traditionally Republican regions.  That, combined with traditonal appeals to the cities and suburbs (where I presume Arnold may, in the end, overperform compared to other republicans) could be the ticket.

With poll numbers like these, though, he shouldn't be too hard to beat...

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socaldem
skolodji
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***
Posts: 1,040


« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2005, 12:13:29 pm »

Think about it. A Governor is recalled and then, a short time later, his replacement is in the basement as well. Then there's North Dakota where everyone has a 115% approval rating.

A lot of it has to do with climate: economic, cultural, political. California is a disaster, and the politicians are going to get the blame. There may never- and I literally mean never- be another widely popular Governor of California.

Maybe thats because we get like .72 back for every dollar that goes to the federal government.  Maybe its because instead of spending money on urban areas, money goes to rural regions.  Perhaps it has to do with the fact that our youth-heavy state needs investment in education, youth health care, and other youth programs and the only the elderly can seem to get any help from the federal government...

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socaldem
skolodji
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,040


« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2005, 12:20:22 pm »

Arnold isn't going anywhere. These polls remind me of the NYC Mayor's race that Bloomberg will easily win after trailing badly some time ago.

Basically any Governor of California is going to be hugely unpopular, because the state is financially screwed due to left-wing legislatures (has the GOP run the legislature at all since the late 1920s?) So it really doesn't matter who wins, they'll be hated.

Except, unlike Arnold, Bloomberg truly is a moderate-liberal and matches the place that he represents.  Moreover, unlike the Democratic challengers to Arnold, the Dem challengers in NYC are kinda hapless...

As for Democratic policies running the state into the ground--wrong!  Certainly, for the short time Democrats controlled government from 1998-2001, they didn't do a spectacular job.  Overall, though, our state's problems are rooted in O.C.-conservatism/Reaganism that led to the decimation of California's pulbic sector and the property tax revolt that forces our state into a ridiculously regressive tax structure in which billionaire Malibu homeowners who've owned their properties forever could pay less property tax for their properties than a middle class couple that purchases a new home in Corona today. 

Californians, btw, that are very well off have a better quality of life than most anywhere.  Why do you think all the rich people want to move here?  If they want to come here and live in their Beverly Hills Villa or Saratoga Manse, they better pay a premium price...
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socaldem
skolodji
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,040


« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2005, 05:10:15 am »


A two-thirds majority should be required to appropriate any funds in the legislature.

A 2/3rds majority is required to raise taxes. That explains a lot a lot of our budget problems right there. Now are you in favor of 67 Senators required to confirm a nominee?

I said two-thirds majority to spend money. Given your budget situation, I think that would make sense.

Jfern is right--its the requirement of 2/3 to raise taxes that needs changing... you are right, however, in that it makes no sense to have the majorities required for spending and for taxes at different levels...

Raising the requirement for spending bills to 2/3, however, instead of reducing the amoung of money spent may actually increase it by increasing log-rolling as an increased number of legislatures need to have their spending priorities satisfied to pass a bill...

You are right to suggest that the initiative system needs reform.... its really absurd that Arnold has decided that instead of using the normal legislative process, he chooses to do almost everything by initiative...direct democracy sucks!
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socaldem
skolodji
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,040


« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2005, 04:45:46 am »

Forst of all, as Arnold shwoed in the stem cell debate, he is very much not a typical conservative on social issues.  He did reach out in that issue.  Further, his plan to reform Califonria's election system by having judges redistrict instead of the legislature drawing their own districts, shows that he has in fact stood up to special interests.  The fact that the deficit has been cut from $22 billion to $8 billion shows that he addressed the budget issue in a serious way, and he had to earn Democrat votes to get it done.  The fact that he reformed workman's comp laws shows that he can complete important reforms and fulfill his campaign promises.

I have to say, anyone who thinks Arnold isn't doing what he said he'd do isn't looking at the facts.

The reason Arnold has a low rating is threefold: The first reason is that California Governor's, including Pat Brown in 1961 and Pete Wilson in 1993, have low approval ratings a year before their re-election.  This is typical, and it doesn't last.  Both those men rebounded and defeated formidable opponents to get re-elected.

The second is foot in mouth disease.  Arnold has said some stupid things that reinforce the diea that he isn't serious.  His legislative record says otherwise, but people often don't look at the person's actual record out here until the election actually comes, they work off perception and the culture out here is very cynical.  But once the election comes around, Arnold's accomplishments combined with his charisma and warchest will carry the day easily.

The third, and most important reason, is that Arnold has sat on his money to dominate the airwaves during the Special election.  His opponents have been spending all their money right now on attack ads.  So his opponents are barely ahead having spent all this money attacking the Governor while the Governor is sitting on the largest warchest, almost entirely untapped until now, in the history of the state.  When that money is unleashed, the charisma and persuasiveness that won Arnold the Govenrorship will send home a clear and concise mesage to support Arnold's reforms in the special election and to re-elect the Governor one year from now.  Whose shoes would you really rather be in?  The side that's down a few points now but has all the money and time in the world, or the side that's barely squeeked ahead and has already played its best cards?

I'm probably not as familiar with state issues as I should be, but...

As far as I know Arnold hasn't done much to resolve our budget crisis.... the budget shortfall was resolved by (1) massive borrowing through props 15 &16 and (2) increased tax revenues from a thriving economy/booming housing market.

I think that that it is outrageous that our state has borrowed so much from our future...sure, you can make the argument we shouldn't have spent so much in the past few years, but, I'm sorry the money has been spent and it has to be paid for by people TODAY through real increases in revenue, i.e. taxes, not shouldered off on to young people and future generations.

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socaldem
skolodji
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,040


« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2005, 11:51:49 pm »

Damnit, why didn't they poll Democrats on the Westly v. Angelides primary?

They did and, as I recall, Angelides was leading 40-20 or something...
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