Morning Consult weekly: LV/RV, 4-way Clinton +2/+1, 2-way Clinton +4/+4

Talk Elections Forum Contact | US Election Atlas Election 2024 Election Results Election Info Atlas Wiki

	Welcome, Guest. Please login or register. Did you miss your activation email? April 30, 2024, 11:56:45 AM

News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

Talk Elections

Election Archive

2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls

Morning Consult weekly: LV/RV, 4-way Clinton +2/+1, 2-way Clinton +4/+4

« previous next »

Pages: [1]

Author

Topic: Morning Consult weekly: LV/RV, 4-way Clinton +2/+1, 2-way Clinton +4/+4 (Read 1083 times)

Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God

Posts: 3,646

Show only this user's posts in this thread

	Morning Consult weekly: LV/RV, 4-way Clinton +2/+1, 2-way Clinton +4/+4 « on: September 18, 2016, 11:23:40 AM »
	« edited: September 18, 2016, 11:51:36 AM by Little Big Adorable »

For forth time in row Clinton +2, which is a good news for Hillary, I guess.

Sept. 15-16, 2016

Quote

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LV, 4-way
Clinton 42% (+1)
Trump 40% (+1)
Johnson 8% (-2)
Stein 3% (--)

LV, 2-way:
Clinton 46% (+2)
Trump 42% (-1)

RV, 4-way
Clinton 39% (+1)
Trump 38% (+2)
Johnson 9% (-1)
Stein 4% (+1)

RV, 2-way:
Clinton 44% (-1)
Trump 40% (--)

https://morningconsult.com/2016/09/18/clinton-maintains-lead-trump-despite-health-scare/

Logged

‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member

Posts: 1,867

Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

Re: Morning Consult weekly: Clinton+2

« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2016, 11:24:38 AM »

Yep... roughly points to "deplorables" and pneumonia being balanced out by Trump's idiocy.

Logged

Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God

Posts: 3,646

Re: Morning Consult weekly: Clinton+2

« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2016, 11:25:09 AM »

Quote

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Logged

KingSweden
Atlas Icon

Posts: 11,227

Re: Morning Consult weekly: Clinton+2

« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2016, 11:27:41 AM »

Wonder if we'll see further declines for Johnson now that he's out of debates

Logged

dspNY
Sr. Member

Posts: 2,893

Re: Morning Consult weekly: Clinton+2

« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2016, 11:29:00 AM »

The article says that Clinton leads by 4 without the minor parties

Logged

Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God

Posts: 3,646

	Re: Morning Consult weekly: Clinton+2 « Reply #5 on: September 18, 2016, 11:32:10 AM »
	« Edited: September 18, 2016, 11:33:46 AM by Little Big Adorable »

Quote from: dspNY on September 18, 2016, 11:29:00 AM

The article says that Clinton leads by 4 without the minor parties

Yes, I added now all the numbers (first post). RV as well.

RV vs LV:
2-way:
the same margin Clinton +4%
4-way:
Clinton is doing slightly better in LV.

Logged

Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon

Posts: 12,453

Re: Morning Consult weekly: Clinton+2

« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2016, 11:33:15 AM »

Quote from: Little Big Adorable on September 18, 2016, 11:32:10 AM

Quote from: dspNY on September 18, 2016, 11:29:00 AM

The article says that Clinton leads by 4 without the minor parties

Yes, I added now all the numbers (first post). RV as well.

You should edit the title too.

Logged

Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God

Posts: 3,646

	Re: Morning Consult weekly: Clinton+2 « Reply #7 on: September 18, 2016, 11:34:06 AM »
	« Edited: September 18, 2016, 11:35:39 AM by Little Big Adorable »

Quote from: Arch on September 18, 2016, 11:33:15 AM

Quote from: Little Big Adorable on September 18, 2016, 11:32:10 AM

Quote from: dspNY on September 18, 2016, 11:29:00 AM

The article says that Clinton leads by 4 without the minor parties

Yes, I added now all the numbers (first post). RV as well.

You should edit the title too.

How? Fixed!

Logged

Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star

Posts: 28,459

Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Re: Morning Consult weekly: LV/RV, 4-way Clinton +2/+1, 2-way Clinton +4/+4

« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2016, 12:30:38 PM »

That likely voter 2 way though...

Logged

Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon

Posts: 12,298

Re: Morning Consult weekly: LV/RV, 4-way Clinton +2/+1, 2-way Clinton +4/+4

« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2016, 12:49:41 PM »

Quote from: Maxwell on September 18, 2016, 12:30:38 PM

That likely voter 2 way though...

Well, assuming that the two-way model is a more reliable indicator than the 4-way one. I don't think we'll know that until we know the actual result.

Logged

Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God

Posts: 3,646

Re: Morning Consult weekly: LV/RV, 4-way Clinton +2/+1, 2-way Clinton +4/+4

« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2016, 01:01:42 PM »

Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 18, 2016, 12:48:28 PM

Decent sign that things have stabilized. I suspect the damage was more about deplorables increasing Trump voter intensity than about the pneumonia incident, the later of which wouldn't be reliably reflected in polling until late this week.

But this polls shows kind of the opposite. Trump gains 1% in RV, while steady/losing 3% in 4/2-way LV, relative to Clinton.

Logged

Ebsy
Junior Chimp

Posts: 8,001

Re: Morning Consult weekly: LV/RV, 4-way Clinton +2/+1, 2-way Clinton +4/+4

« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2016, 01:48:11 PM »

My (tentative) takeaway is the drop in Johnson's support. Could be a sign of things to come.

Logged

GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar

Posts: 32,711

Re: Morning Consult weekly: LV/RV, 4-way Clinton +2/+1, 2-way Clinton +4/+4

« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2016, 01:58:05 PM »

Quote from: Ebsy on September 18, 2016, 01:48:11 PM

My (tentative) takeaway is the drop in Johnson's support. Could be a sign of things to come.

Both Johnson and Stein are very likely to lose most of their support by Election Day, unless it looks like a blowout. I expect that those who defect from Stein will mostly vote for Clinton, while the Johnson defectors will probably be close to an even split.

Logged