PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Clinton +9
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:01:17 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Clinton +9
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]
Author Topic: PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Clinton +9  (Read 6668 times)
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: September 18, 2016, 08:32:41 AM »

Wait, people are freaking out about a poll with a 5.5% MOE, 400 sample size?

Good point. Hillary could be leading by 14.5%.  Tongue
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: September 18, 2016, 08:38:35 AM »

Wait, people are freaking out about a poll with a 5.5% MOE, 400 sample size?

Good point. Hillary could be leading by 14.5%.  Tongue
The MOE of victory is actually ~9%, so Clinton "might be" +20% Cheesy
Logged
PresidentSamTilden
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 507


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: September 18, 2016, 08:41:37 AM »

The MOE of victory is actually ~9%, so Clinton "might be" +20% Cheesy

Hillary > 400 EV's confirmed...jk
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: September 18, 2016, 08:58:54 AM »

I guess The Donald will be spending a lot of time in Denver and environs. That appears to be the only viable path left to him at the moment. Well, I guess there is NH perhaps. Don't tell TN that I mentioned NH!

I think Wisconsin is the better option than Colorado. Even Nevada I see going to Clinton as long as the poll aggregate is within a point or two favoring Trump. New Hampshire is possible as well but you need either Nevada, Colorado or Wisconsin along with it. Michigan I am not as concerned about. Overall, I am expecting some swing back to Clinton from Johnson/Stein among core anti-trump voters. This will help Hillary more in Colorado and even Nevada than among working class whites.
Logged
15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,661


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: September 18, 2016, 10:47:28 AM »

The Senate numbers seem too Democratic as well, which, in a weird way comfort me that they just got to Democratic/liberal of a sample.
Logged
Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: September 18, 2016, 10:56:13 AM »

Over sampling of Philly area I bet
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,239
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: September 18, 2016, 11:14:21 AM »

Hillary continues to dominate in the Southeast part of the state 56-26. Philly suburbs will carry the state for Clinton.

a ready explanation is that voters in that region tilting between Obama and Romney aren't likely to go Trump.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,352


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: September 18, 2016, 11:17:34 AM »


On what basis do you conclude that?  Some actual numbers?
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: September 18, 2016, 11:50:56 AM »

Some relief.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,786
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: September 18, 2016, 12:25:04 PM »

Kasich was the only GOPer to win Pennsylvania or VA and this race would be over.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: September 18, 2016, 05:33:29 PM »

Slightly OT, but I saw Muhlenberg and it reminded me of the old country song about Muhlenberg County, Kentucky.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEy6EuZp9IY

I looked up the Uni, and found that they are based out of Allentown PA....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHnJp0oyOxs


Back on topic, Lehigh County is a county that trended heavily Republican in 2000 and 2004, swung hard towards Obama in '08 and stayed +8 Dem in '12, but trended against the statewide PVI.

Muhlenberg County, Kentucky was only a 50-48 Obama win in '08 and swung to a 61-38 Romney win in '12.

Previously 50-49 Bush Jr (2004), 52-46 Gore (2000)....

This poll is likely a few points too friendly to Clinton, although it is consistent with PA numbers overall holding up....

Meanwhile we have places like Lehigh County PA (Allentown), and Muhlenberg County KY that used to be solid New Deal Democrat union towns.... Will Trump be able to make huge inroads into these types of communities to build a winning coalition in OH and PA?Huh

Regardless, please listen to the classic tunes and although we are in height of political season, there is a real story going on in communities like these....
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,842
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: September 19, 2016, 06:49:53 AM »

it's like illinois on a smaller scale...there are theoretically enough votes to kill phillie and some areas of the country are going red and becoming redder but it's a lot harder than in ohio and republicans didn't really shine regarding GOTV in comparison.

Illinois also doesn't have another major city on the other side of the state that's as Democratic as Pittsburgh.

Outside Chicagoland, Illinois is about as Republican as Indiana. 
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,750
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: September 19, 2016, 07:43:12 AM »

Slightly OT, but I saw Muhlenberg and it reminded me of the old country song about Muhlenberg County, Kentucky.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEy6EuZp9IY


Purple heart
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,963
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: September 19, 2016, 11:14:32 AM »

it's like illinois on a smaller scale...there are theoretically enough votes to kill phillie and some areas of the country are going red and becoming redder but it's a lot harder than in ohio and republicans didn't really shine regarding GOTV in comparison.

Illinois also doesn't have another major city on the other side of the state that's as Democratic as Pittsburgh.

Outside Chicagoland, Illinois is about as Republican as Indiana. 

Not quite, it's more like Missouri. Clinton won it by comfortable margins in 1992 and 1996.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,842
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: September 20, 2016, 09:24:59 AM »

it's like illinois on a smaller scale...there are theoretically enough votes to kill phillie and some areas of the country are going red and becoming redder but it's a lot harder than in ohio and republicans didn't really shine regarding GOTV in comparison.

Illinois also doesn't have another major city on the other side of the state that's as Democratic as Pittsburgh.

Outside Chicagoland, Illinois is about as Republican as Indiana. 

Not quite, it's more like Missouri. Clinton won it by comfortable margins in 1992 and 1996.

Missouri has Kansas City and St. Louis and is otherwise very rustic. Outside of Chicagoland, Illinois' big cities (such as they are) do not sum up to Indianapolis.

Bill Clinton won West Virginia in 1992 and 1996; it is not the same state in its politics now. Southern Missouri even looks much like West Virginia.   
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 12 queries.