PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Clinton +9

[ApatheticAustrian]

this election is my personal sequel to the endless drama of my own austrian presidential election last spring, which was the most intense nail-biter which my country (and i myself) has ever endured (and is getting repeated next december cause of the great public demand)......

i have tried for years to understand the US of A and its political system and now have realized, all those pretty rules are meant to be broken and all polling logic must be forgotten for this hellish rollercoaster.....

as a political geek i can't decide if this is heaven, hell or both....but i am pretty sure, ohio and PA won't be won by the same candidate this time.

[Tender Branson]

this election is my personal sequel to the endless drama of my own austrian presidential election last spring, which was the most intense nail-biter which my country (and i myself) has ever endured (and is getting repeated next december cause of the great public demand)......

i have tried for years to understand the US of A and its political system and now have realized, all those pretty rules are meant to be broken and all polling logic must be forgotten for this hellish rollercoaster.....

as a political geek i can't decide if this is heaven, hell or both....but i am pretty sure, ohio and PA won't be won by the same candidate this time.

SKIP

LOL, "great public demand" ?

More because "the FPÖ challenged the original result and the High Court ruled in favour" ...

SKIP

[ApatheticAustrian]

SKIP
LOL, "great public demand" ?
More because "the FPÖ challenged the original result and the High Court ruled in favour" ...
SKIP

pardon, i think i need a kind of sarcasm tag. in fact, i am pretty sure the demand for a december election is so low that the turnout will invent new bottoms to drop at.

[StatesPoll]

400 LV = Not enough sample size for PA (Could be ok for NV,NH but not for PA)

[Tender Branson]

SKIP
LOL, "great public demand" ?
More because "the FPÖ challenged the original result and the High Court ruled in favour" ...
SKIP

pardon, i think i need a kind of sarcasm tag. in fact, i am pretty sure the demand for a december election is so low that the turnout will invent new bottoms to drop at.

Yeah, I figured so ...

But let's discuss turnout etc. in the Austrian election thread.

[Dr. Arch]

Thank you PA.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

400 LV = Not enough sample size for PA (Could be ok for NV,NH but not for PA)

good try... this is still outside the 99% confident MOE, much less the 95%. PA is trending Clinton

[Panda Express]

The HILLDAWG BEATDOWNs have resumed.

[DrScholl]

400 LV = Not enough sample size for PA (Could be ok for NV,NH but not for PA)

Sit down.

[EpicHistory]

The HILLDAWG BEATDOWNs have resumed.

On the basis of one poll? Sure.....

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

ABSOLUTELY TREMENDOUS!

Indeed!

GREAT POLL!  Absolutely consistent with the best the Orange Douchebag will do aka Obama 2008.

Thank you SE PA and your beautiful gaggle of college-educated whites and astute blacks and browns!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Bad news for Trump

The only hope is small  sample size (as I was arguing in Monmouth thread),  but still SAD!

[StatesPoll]

Bad news for Trump

The only hope is small  sample size (as I was arguing in Monmouth thread),  but still SAD!

PA: Google Consumer Surey, 9/7-9/13, '831' LV (431 more than Muhlenberg Poll)
TRUMP 36% | Hillary 34% | Johnson 9%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#now

[President Johnson]

Yeah, no change in Pennsylvania. The states remains blue.

[Alcon]

400 LV = Not enough sample size for PA (Could be ok for NV,NH but not for PA)

That's not how sample sizes work when your population is in the millions.  There's a negligible difference between the margin of error for a n=400 sample poll of Pennsylvania versus New Hampshire or Nevada.  If your entire shtick is poll interpretation, you might want to take some time to learn basic statistics first.

[politicallefty]

Philadelphia was the birthplace of America. It stands firm in preventing its downfall and demise.

The margins Hillary is apparently putting up in the Philly suburbs are just amazing. Some are making analogies to Illinois here. I would say that it seems like Philly and its suburbs are acting collectively close to Cook County, which I think is a pretty good analogy this year. If Hillary wins the suburbs by 30+ points and carries Philadelphia by the usual Democratic margin, the whole area could indeed rival Cook County. (Obviously, the big difference is that Chicagoland represents a much bigger part of IL than Philly+suburbs does of PA mostly on account of Chicago being a much bigger city than Philadelphia. Philadelphia and its suburbs don't really come close to Cook County and obviously, that's why IL is Safe D and PA is not.)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It is also Johnson's best result so far. 14%

[Erich Maria Remarque]

This one poll moved the entire 538 forecast about 1.5 points to Clinton

The now-cast shifted by almost 4% towards Clinton

[Erich Maria Remarque]

An intresting article about among other the importance of PA
Why the Whole Trump-Clinton Election Could Probably Just Be Held in Pennsylvania

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[Dumbo]

400 LV = Not enough sample size for PA (Could be ok for NV,NH but not for PA)

   
Quinnipiac national 960 LV
Muhlenberg PA 403 LV
sounds good.

[Person Man]

400 LV = Not enough sample size for PA (Could be ok for NV,NH but not for PA)

   
Quinnipiac national 960 LV
Muhlenberg PA 403 LV
sounds good.

This election is so y, no one believes the polls.

[mencken]

Wait, people are freaking out about a poll with a 5.5% MOE, 400 sample size?

[PresidentSamTilden]

Looks like Trump is only winning PA if he wins yuuuuge nationally. Numbers are probably a shade high, but it's clear he's not making the progress he'd like to see here. Perhaps the similarities between Ohio and PA have been overestimated?

[Person Man]

Looks like Trump is only winning PA if he wins yuuuuge nationally. Numbers are probably a shade high, but it's clear he's not making the progress he'd like to see here. Perhaps the similarities between Ohio and PA have been overestimated?

Philly is just a different beast that Columbus, Cleaveland or Cincinnati. And Youngstown, Dayton, Toledo, Canton, and Akron are just big towns, really.

[Torie]

I guess The Donald will be spending a lot of time in Denver and environs. That appears to be the only viable path left to him at the moment. Well, I guess there is NH perhaps. Don't tell TN that I mentioned NH!