PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Clinton +9

[EpicHistory]

It makes Nevada an absolute necessity for him, though.  And given what we know about historical polling and Hispanic turnout there, that's a precarious position.

If he wins OH, FL, NC, and IA, he can afford to lose Nevada if he gets WI and ME-02. He's essentially got to the point he has several viable strategies to win this now.

So it's not going to happen...

Colorado and Wisconsin were only around 4-8% for Clinton back during her August high time, and given how much Trump has surged since then, it's foolish to pretend like Trump pick ups can't happen there.

taking which numbers? 538/RCP-average? ^^

538.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Even though it does look fairly Clinton-friendly, it still shows that Trump is going to have a hard time getting to 270, and that PA was never going to be easy to flip.

He doesn't need. Current states with the advantage plus either Wisconsin or Colorado wins it for him.

So it's not going to happen...

I'd wait for more CO and WI polls, but I think PA is definitely gone for him. Maybe PA is going the way of Illinois and New Jersey, who knows.

Maybe Wisconsin, but Colorado is too educated for Trump.

Actually, given the demographic contours of this election, I could see Trump winning Michigan while losing both Colorado and Wisconsin.  If I were Hillary, I'd be watching Michigan very closely right now.

The ONLY Obama '12 states I'm really concerned about (right now) are OH and IA. NV is impossible to poll properly, so fundamentals help Clinton but it's a second-tier concern right now.

[JJC]

There's a rumor that Marist is about to drop a PA poll showing a tie.

It's a rumor. Take it for what it's worth.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's only a gut call, but I think we'll see a divide between polls taken at the start of the week versus the last 2 days. It wouldn't surprise me to see a few closer polls in PA.

[heatcharger]

There's a rumor that Marist is about to drop a PA poll showing a tie.

It's a rumor. Take it for what it's worth.

Uh, lol. Want to point us to your sources or are you an amdcpus sock?

[Wells]

There's a rumor that Marist is about to drop a PA poll showing a tie.

It's a rumor. Take it for what it's worth.

That's why we have averages.

[Gass3268]

There's a rumor that Marist is about to drop a PA poll showing a tie.

It's a rumor. Take it for what it's worth.

I've seen nothing on a Google and Twitter search.

[ApatheticAustrian]

538.

their recent map doesn't really look like your scenario.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[JJC]

There's a rumor that Marist is about to drop a PA poll showing a tie.

It's a rumor. Take it for what it's worth.

Uh, lol. Want to point us to your sources or are you an amdcpus sock?

Brandon Finnigan from twitter (not the baseball player). Sorry, I can't post links yet.

Brandon Finnigan, formally known as CAC, is a respected prognosticator who founded DecisionDesk HQ. Again, take rumors for what they're worth.

[Maxwell]

yes that's right bitches

[Gass3268]

There's a rumor that Marist is about to drop a PA poll showing a tie.

It's a rumor. Take it for what it's worth.

Uh, lol. Want to point us to your sources or are you an amdcpus sock?

Brandon Finnigan from twitter (not the baseball player). Sorry, I can't post links yet.

Brandon Finnigan, formally known as CAC, is a respected prognosticator who founded DecisionDesk HQ. Again, take rumors for what they're worth.

I've read through his stream of tweets today, he's guessing.

[Lief 🗽]

There's a rumor that Marist is about to drop a PA poll showing a tie.

It's a rumor. Take it for what it's worth.

Uh, lol. Want to point us to your sources or are you an amdcpus sock?

Brandon Finnigan from twitter (not the baseball player). Sorry, I can't post links yet.

Brandon Finnigan, formally known as CAC, is a respected prognosticator who founded DecisionDesk HQ. Again, take rumors for what they're worth.

I'm 95% sure he's joking.

[Gass3268]

There's a rumor that Marist is about to drop a PA poll showing a tie.

It's a rumor. Take it for what it's worth.

Uh, lol. Want to point us to your sources or are you an amdcpus sock?

Brandon Finnigan from twitter (not the baseball player). Sorry, I can't post links yet.

Brandon Finnigan, formally known as CAC, is a respected prognosticator who founded DecisionDesk HQ. Again, take rumors for what they're worth.

I'm 95% sure he's joking.

Agreed, he's had more tweets saying that the Republican polling showing Clinton up in Bucks County means that Trump is losing the state by more.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in fact, a tied poll wouldn't surprise me at all....especially since this poll here is the other kind of "outlier" and marist seems to see half the country tied.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/776948780058841088
https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/777267657707925504

Are these the hints? Regardless, he seems pretty convinced Trump is out of the game in Pennsylvania based on the Morning Call poll.

[Ebsy]

Looking at the RCP average and previous polls, this isn't actually an outlier.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in fact the polls alone can't be the reason why all eyes are on PA since the polls look closer in MI and WI since quite some time but no republican seems to really but it.


after the trump-leaning vermont and good old republican utah i am pretty sure we are going to see a poll this cycle which brings about any state into anyone's reach.

[DrScholl]

Philadelphia's suburbs pretty much dominate the statewide vote, which makes it impossible for Trump to win the state.

[Tender Branson]

Funny how IA and PA are now apparently 16 points apart, when they voted exactly the same in 2012 ...

[ApatheticAustrian]

it's like illinois on a smaller scale...there are theoretically enough votes to kill phillie and some areas of the country are going red and becoming redder but it's a lot harder than in ohio and republicans didn't really shine regarding GOTV in comparison.

[Gass3268]

it's like illinois on a smaller scale...there are theoretically enough votes to kill phillie and some areas of the country are going red and becoming redder but it's a lot harder than in ohio and republicans didn't really shine regarding GOTV in comparison.

Illinois also doesn't have another major city on the other side of the state that's as Democratic as Pittsburgh.

[HillOfANight]

in fact the polls alone can't be the reason why all eyes are on PA since the polls look closer in MI and WI since quite some time but no republican seems to really but it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

Michigan polling sucks. And Wisconsin was polling to the left of Pennsylvania until PA was barraged with the Clinton and PrioritiesUSA ads. They could win Wisconsin by 10 but they're probably happy winning by 5 if it ends up that close.

[KingSweden]

That Swedish tool is conspicuously absent from this thread...

Agree this may be a little too friendly to Hillary, though

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

That Swedish tool is conspicuously absent from this thread...

Agree this may be a little too friendly to Hillary, though

Don't see why, it's within the ballpark

[dspNY]

This one poll moved the entire 538 forecast about 1.5 points to Clinton