Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Update on the opinion poll chart since 2001:



The current average of polls gives something like this:

37% PS
25% PSD
  9% CDS
  9% BE
  7% CDU
  3% PAN
  2% Alliance
  8% Others/Invalid

[Mike88]

Passos Coelho returns. Former PSD leader accuses PS of making more austerity than his own government:

Former PM and PSD leader, Pedro Passos Coelho, appeared yesterday in the political stage with a very harsh speech against Costa and the PS. Passos Coelho accused the PS of applying more austerity than his own government in the NHS and the Educational sector, adding that those same ministers that in 2011 left the country in pre-bankruptcy are still around, today, with the same speech, concluding that the PS hasn't learn a thing from the past.

The remarks were made in a PSD conference in Coimbra city that will end this Sunday with the presence, and speech, of Rui Rio, PSD leader. It will be interesting to see if Passos Coelho will take part in the PSD campaign for the fall general elections. My hunch is that Rio and his team will not invite him, but if he shows up to support Rio, they cannot rebuke him. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Assunção Cristas is being investigated for, allegedly, favouring Cavaco Silva's son-in-law in the sale of Lisbon's biggest arena in 2013:

The DA office has confirmed that they are investigating Assunção Cristas decision, as minister in 2013, of selling the biggest arena in Lisbon, Atlantic Pavilion, to Luís Montez, the son-in-law of former President and PM Aníbal Cavaco Silva.

This story broke last week when TVI television reported that wiretaps prove that Luís Montez had privilege information as he, at the time of the sale, was the manager of the company that was managing the arena. His company, however, was bankrupt and was able to win the sale by the help, according to TVI, of BES bank and Ricardo Salgado, former BES chairman and currently accused of several corruption crimes. Assunção Cristas, CDS leader, denies any wrongdoing, denies she's a friend of Luís Montez and says she follow the law.

[Mike88]

Local by-elections in Travassô e Óis da Ribeira parish, Águeda, Aveiro district, today:


Location of Travassô e Óis da Ribeira parish in Águeda municipality.

2,027 voters are today called to elect a new parish assembly in Travassô e Óis da Ribeira parish, Águeda, Aveiro district. 5 party lists are on the ballot plus 1 independent movement. Voters were called to vote in a snap poll after the PSD led minority, elected in 2017, was unable to form a government and, therefore, resigned to call an election. It's expected a close result between PSD and the independent movement "Together".

[Mike88]

Travassô e Óis da Ribeira by-election - PSD hold:

53.6% PSD (+12.5), 6 seats (+2)
20.1% Independent (-15.9), 2 (-2)
13.1% CDS (new), 1 (new)
  7.9% PS (-7.7), 0 (-1)
  1.5% BE (new), 0
  1.4% CDU (-0.5), 0
  2.5% Invalid ballots (-2.9)

65.9% Turnout (-2.9)

[Mike88]

Eurobarometer for Portugal - Fall 2018

1. Most important issues facing the country (two possible answers)

33% Healthcare and Social Security
32% Inflation/Cost of living
27% Unemployment
19% Pensions
17% Taxes
16% The economy
15% The government debt
  9% Education
  6% Housing
  4% Crime
  3% Immigration
  3% Environment/Global warming
  1% Terrorism

2. Trust in Political institutions (compared with the last Eurobarometer)

43% Government (-12%)
37% Parliament (-11%)
17% Political parties (-9%)

3. Would Portugal face the future better, being out of the EU?

69% No
20% Yes
11% Undecided

4. Trust in the media:

68% TV
68% Radio
61% Newspapers
41% Internet
26% Social Media

Poll conducted between 8 and 19 November 2018.

[Former President tack50]

Update on the opinion poll chart since 2001:



The current average of polls gives something like this:

37% PS
25% PSD
  9% CDS
  9% BE
  7% CDU
  3% PAN
  2% Alliance
  8% Others/Invalid

Most interesting thing about that graph is probably how CDS managed to easily survive the coalition with PSD. I'd have expected them to be absorbed by the larger party.

[Mike88]

Most interesting thing about that graph is probably how CDS managed to easily survive the coalition with PSD. I'd have expected them to be absorbed by the larger party.

There was the doubt, during 2011-2015, that CDS would face the same fate the Lib Dems faced in the UK. But, the difference is that PSD was perceived as more radical, in terms of policies, than CDS and the constant clashes between PSD and CDS ministers reinforced the view that CDS was successful in calming down the "radicalization" of the PSD. However, some pundits argue that the PSD-CDS coalition in 2015 saved CDS, as they say that, in a scenario where PSD and CDS ran alone, closer to election day, voters would bipolarize options between PSD and PS, leaving CDS in danger. The fear of a PS victory could have made many CDS voters to vote PSD, even though they weren't fans of Passos Coelho.

[Mike88]

Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader, is considering leaving the leadership in 2020:

Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader since 2004, is considering leaving the party leadership in 2020, year of the next PCP national congress. But, he adds, that he could make another decision by that time saying "life will tell". It will be interesting to see who could succeed Jerónimo de Sousa, as there isn't a clear frontrunner or "natural" successor. The 2019 elections results could also be critical for the Communists. They currently are polling at record low levels, around 6%.

[Mike88]

New polling, conducted by Gfk/Metris and headed by one of Portugal's leading pollesters, Pedro Magalhães, will be available on Saturday.

GfK/Metris will start publishing polls, next weekend, on Expresso newspaper/SIC TV. The polling, done by secret ballot, and that surveyed 801 registered voters was conducted between 9 and 21 February 2019. The poll, according to the webpage, will have crosstabs by age, gender, region, and school degree.

[Mike88]

For the 2019 elections, 10,846,000 voters are registered to vote:

It may sound weird, because Portugal itself has around 10.3 million inhabitants, but the number of registered voters for the 2019 European and General elections is almost 11 million, to be precise, 10,845,868. This happened because the government approved, in 2018, the automatic registration of all voters that live abroad, meaning, if you have a Portuguese ID card, but live outside Portugal, you are automatically registered to vote. That meant that the number of voters living abroad rose from 242,000 in 2015, to 1,476,000 in 2019.  

The negative side of this is that turnout percentages (%) could reach record lows for a general election in October. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Political update:

The state of the justice system has been the main headline in the last few days in Portugal. The number of women murdered by their husbands/partners, or ex's, has reached a record high for just two months in one year. A total of 11 women have been murdered only this year and this has spark up the debate of domestic violence, and abuse, in Portugal. The way the justice system prosecutes these cases is also in the spotlight, for bad reasons. The vast majority of the cases of domestic violence don't end up in jail or punitive measures, and only 9% of the cases ends up in some kind of sentence.

In the middle of all of this, a judge in Porto city has been making sentences that only make things worse. Judge Neto de Moura from Porto's court has, in the past, proclaimed weird and deeply controversial sentences. In 2017, he refused to increase the jail sentence of two men, the husband and the lover of the wife, because the woman in question did an "despicable action" and that it's "understandable violence perpetrated by man betrayed, vexed and humiliated by the woman". To add more ground to his thesis, he quoted the bible. And now, he ordered the removal of the electronic bracelet from a man accused of beating up his wife and of bursting her eardrums. The man, who continues to insult his wife, is now free and the judge argues that the law was broken as it was not asked authorization from the attacker, nor argued why the meassure was indispensable to protect the woman.

Of course, 2 ruling in a row are creating a huge controversy. The government has announced a national day of mourning for victims of domestic violence. And judge Neto de Moura is being fiercely mocked by the media, and he is even suing some comedians in Portugal for their jokes against and towards him. In the middle of this, the Superior Council of the Judiciary is refusing to punish judge Neto de Moura for his actions and only sent him an advice note. Here's where politics enters. Rui Rio, PSD leader, wants to reform the justice system and wants to nominate civilians to these councils in order, according to him, to balance their decisions:

https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1102948765730783232

I hope that the controversy around Neto de Moura serves to perceive the real state of Justice and the closed corporatism that dominates it. An aspect that I have been pointing for a long, long time.

The judges and the rest of the judicial system loaded Rio's proposal, but it seems that Rio is firing back at them. During the weekend, there will be rallies against domestic violence across the country, but, it's yet to be seen if they will have an impact. My hunch, unfortunately, is no.

Also, António Costa appeared, today, on Portugal's most popular morning show, o programa da Cristina (Cristina's program) on SIC TV, cooking and talking about his personal life.

Costa cooked fish cataplana, talked about his childhood as a child of divorced parents, while his wife, Fernanda Tadeu, said she meet Costa while in college when he had "many girlfriends". He also said he likes house shores, like going to the self service laundry. Costa is the 3rd main politician to appear in this morning show. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic, called live to the show on the day it broadcast the pilot episode, a move that some pundits argue is making the President more and more unpopular, and Assunção Cristas, CDS leader, which was mocked on social media for cooking tuna rice.

[Mike88]

Electoral Commission forbids national, regional and local governments of advertising new public construction projects before elections:

It's a complete revolution in election campaigns in Portugal. For years, before election days, local, regional and national government had the habit of announcing some kind of public construction project, small, medium or big, in a way to make election campaign and win votes. Not anymore, it seems. After several rulings from the Constitutional Court, that sentenced many city halls for illegal campaign advertisement, the Electoral Commission (CNE) has ruled that no more new construction projects can be announced before, for now, the European election in May. Only if the projects are urgent, they are allowed to be announced.

A curious ruling, because the PS main candidate for the EP election, Pedro Marques, was the former minister of infrastructures and before he became the head list candidate for the PS, he announced several new public construction projects. According to the media, the government is now reorganizing their strategy.

[Mike88]

New parties: Setback for André Ventura's Enough! party as the Constitutional Court invalidates hundreds of signatures.

The Constitutional Court has invalidated hundreds of signatures sent by André Ventura in order to legalize his new party, Enough! (Chega!). The Court found several signatures from minors and from police forces, and has forced Ventura to deliver more signatures in 10 days, tops. The party has confirmed this and is trying to gather enough signatures at the time given by the Court. The Court, however, hasn't ruled about the party rules and structures.

This setback could prevent Enough! of contesting the EP elections, as parties have a deadline to present candidacies until April 15th.

[Mike88]

Gfk/Metris poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:

Vote share %:

37% PS
25% PSD
  8% CDU
  8% CDS
  8% BE
  3% PAN
  2% Alliance
  4% Others
  5% Blank/Invalid

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 10)

8.1 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
5.8 António Costa
4.9 Jerónimo de Sousa
4.7 Rui Rio
4.7 Catarina Martins
4.3 André Silva (PAN)
4.0 Assunção Cristas

Poll conducted between 9 and 21 February 2019. Polled 801 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

After midnight, all results will be available here.

[Mike88]

More data from the GfK/Metris poll:

Q1: In the last year, do you think the economic situation has improved a lot, improved, stayed the same, worsened or worsened a lot? "

40% Stayed the same
36% Improved
19% Worsened
  2% Worsened a lot
  1% Improved a lot
  2% Don't know

Q2: Thinking about the overall performance of the current Government, how would you rate its performance?

52% Good
29% Bad
  5% Very bad
  2% Very good
12% Don't know

Q3: And compared to the previous government (PSD/CDS), I would say that this government (PS) is doing a job ...

44% Better
32% Same
13% Worse
  5% Much better
  2% Much worse
  5% Don't know

Q4: Party sympathy:

21.8% PS
14.1% PSD
  6.0% PCP
  3.2% BE
  2.0% CDS
  0.7% Alliance
  0.4% PAN
  0.3% Others
44.0% None
  7.5% Refused/Don't know

Poll conducted between 9 and 21 February 2019. Polled 801 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

[Mike88]

Local by-election imminent for Castro Marim city hall:


Location of Castro Marim in Faro district, Algarve.

Castro Marim, town with around 6,700 inhabitants in Faro district (Algarve), will most likely go to the polls to elect a new mayor and a new local government after the resignation of the current PSD minority cabinet. The incumbent mayor, Francisco Amaral, says that the PS/Ind opposition have blocked every policy initiative of the PSD and, according to him, have frozen city management. Mr Amaral will run again and will ask for a majority. PS has announced it will present the same candidate as 2017, Célia Brito. The election date is not yet known, but it may be in May, perhaps on the same day of the EP elections.

In 2017, the results were the following:

37.1% PSD/CDS, 2 seats
36.3% PS, 2
21.1% Independent, 1
  2.4% CDU
  3.1% Blank/Invalid

67.6% Turnout

[Mike88]

In a new setback, PPM, People's Monarchist Party, votes against André Ventura being the main candidate for the EP elections:

The PPM national council has voted against André Ventura being the main candidate for the EP elections, calling him "racist" and "populist" This mean that Ventura has to have his party legalized until the April 15th, the deadline to present candidates. His party was adverted by the Constitutional Court for having signatures of children and others. He says that he has collected an extra 1,000 new signatures and will deliver them next Monday to the Court.

The proposed coalition between Enough! and PPM could also be dead. We'll see.

[Mike88]

A question for crals about the PSD-Azores:

There was a little controversy about the PSD lists because of the inclusion, or not, of Mota Amaral, the 1st president of the Azores government in democracy (1976-1995), in the party lists for the EP elections. Because last time, in 2014, the PSD-Azores was benefited with a 3rd place slot in the lists, this time was Madeira's turn to be benefited. According to the media, the PSD-Azores was forcing Rui Rio to accept Mota Amaral's name in a top spot or there wouldn't be no candidate and the regional party would consider not campaigning at all for the EP elections.

Because you, crals, are more into Azorean politics, how do you make of this tactic?

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll from March:
   
Vote share %: (compared with the January poll)   
   
37.3% PS (-2.7)
25.2% PSD (+0.4)
  8.5% CDS (+1.4)
  8.1% BE (+0.5)
  7.1% CDU (nc)
  3.3% Alliance (-0.7)
  2.4% PAN (+0.5)
  8.1% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Popularity ratings: (Approve; Disapprove; margin)

69.0%;   9.0%, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa +60.0%
50.0%; 25.0%, António Costa +25.0%
45.0%; 28.1%, Rui Rio +16.9%
40.8%; 26.0%, Parliament +14.8%
42.2%; 28.4%, Jerónimo de Sousa +13.8%
41.2%; 28.7%, Government +12.5%
41.7%; 29.9%, Catarina Martins +11.8%
41.2%; 29.8%, Assunção Cristas +11.4%

Poll conducted between 10 and 14 March 2019. Polled 1,020 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

[Mike88]

Prices of public transport passes to decrease by 100 euros, or more, in Lisbon and Porto metro areas:

Some pundits are calling it one of the biggest impacting policies in the last few years in Portugal. The cost of public transport passes will be lowered in order for families to have only a 80 euros (90.6 dolares) limit per month. In some cases, families could save from around 100 euros (113 dolars) to 242 euros (274 dolars) per month. This policy is schedule to start on April, but there could be some delays, because transport companies may still be waiting for new tickets machines. This meassure, however, will only be introduced in Lisbon and Porto metro areas, where 4.6 million people live, around 44% of the population. The rest of the country, 56% of the population, small/medium size cities and rural areas, will not, for now, have the same benefits.

[Mike88]

More polling data.

Aximage poll from March:   
   
Vote share %:   
   
36.3% PS (-0.1)
23.9% PSD (-0.5)
  9.7% CDS (+0.4)
  9.2% BE (+0.3)
  6.8% CDU (+0.5)
  2.2% PAN (-0.3)
  1.8% Alliance (+0.2)
  8.1% Others/Invalid (+0.5)
  2.0% Undecided (-1.0)
  
Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

9.4 Catarina Martins (+0.6)
9.2 António Costa (-0.2)
8.2 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.6)
7.9 Rui Rio (+0.2)
7.9 Assunção Cristas (-0.3)

Preferred PM:

53.8% António Costa (+1.1)
27.7% Rui Rio (-3.7)  

Poll conducted between 9 and 13 March 2019. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.  

[Mike88]

Local by-election imminent for Castro Marim city hall:


Location of Castro Marim in Faro district, Algarve.

Castro Marim, town with around 6,700 inhabitants in Faro district (Algarve), will most likely go to the polls to elect a new mayor and a new local government after the resignation of the current PSD minority cabinet. The incumbent mayor, Francisco Amaral, says that the PS/Ind opposition have blocked every policy initiative of the PSD and, according to him, have frozen city management. Mr Amaral will run again and will ask for a majority. PS has announced it will present the same candidate as 2017, Célia Brito. The election date is not yet known, but it may be in May, perhaps on the same day of the EP elections.

In 2017, the results were the following:

37.1% PSD/CDS, 2 seats
36.3% PS, 2
21.1% Independent, 1
  2.4% CDU
  3.1% Blank/Invalid

67.6% Turnout

Castro Marim city hall by-election is called for 2 June 2019, one week after the EP elections. PSD, PS and CDU will file candidacies, while the Independents are still considering a run or not. Before that there will be also a by-election on 28 April in Pias parish, Monção municipality, Viana do Castelo district. The election is, it seems, literally a forgone conclusion as only the PSD presented a list, so, it will be a PSD gain from Independents, that won in 2017.

[Mike88]

PSD proposal to liberalize the taxi sector stuck down by PS, CDS, BE and CDU:

The PSD proposals to liberalize the taxi sector in Portugal were, overwhelming, stuck down by all parties in Parliament, except PAN and an Independent MP that abstained. The Social Democrats were proposing the end of fixed prices, increase competition, the end of colour standardization of taxis and the elimination of quotas defined by the municipalities for the allocation of licenses. PS accused the PSD of proposing "radical" policies, while CDS asked were was this PSD when the CDS also presented policies for the taxi sector. PCP accused the PSD of destroying the sector, while BE said the Social Democrats want "full liberalization" of a sector that provides public services.

In their defense, the PSD accused all parties that voted against their proposals of having zero proposals and only criticize. A PSD MP said that he was ashamed of PS, CDS, BE and CDU.

To add also, BE proposal of taxing Google, Facebook and others in Portugal was struck down by PS, PSD, CDS and an independent MP. PAN abstained while only BE and CDU voted in favour. The Left Bloc's proposal was to tax the big tech gigants like Google, Facebook and Amazon in order to create, using part of that money, a fund for press andmedia literacy, which would reach some 500,000 young people.  

[crals]

A question for crals about the PSD-Azores:

There was a little controversy about the PSD lists because of the inclusion, or not, of Mota Amaral, the 1st president of the Azores government in democracy (1976-1995), in the party lists for the EP elections. Because last time, in 2014, the PSD-Azores was benefited with a 3rd place slot in the lists, this time was Madeira's turn to be benefited. According to the media, the PSD-Azores was forcing Rui Rio to accept Mota Amaral's name in a top spot or there wouldn't be no candidate and the regional party would consider not campaigning at all for the EP elections.

Because you, crals, are more into Azorean politics, how do you make of this tactic?

I suppose it will make no difference in the end because the Azores are a small part of the country. Mota Amaral still has some diehard supporters but PS would probably easily win the region anyway.
It does feel like the PSD has given up on winning back the Azores any time soon. CDS stole some of their support in the last regional election and could get even more.