Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

IPOM poll for Ovar (Aveiro district), 55,000 inhabitants; (PSD incumbent):

60.9% PSD
20.7% PS
  8.0% CDU
  4.0% BE
  2.4% CDS
  4.0% Invalid

Poll conducted on 25 and 26 September. Polled 595 voters. MoE of 3.9%.

[Mike88]

Universidade Católica poll for Lisbon (Lisbon district), 520,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):




Poll conducted between 23 and 26 September. Polled 1,185 voters. MoE of 2.8%.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Lisbon (Lisbon district), 520,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):

43.3% PS, 9 councillors
17.5% CDS, 3
12.5% PSD, 2
10.1% CDU, 2
  5.7% BE, 1
10.9% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 24 and 26 September. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

Eurosondagem poll for Porto (Porto district), 220,000 inhabitants; (Independent incumbent):

40.8% Rui Moreira, 6/7 councillors
30.8% PS, 4/5
11.0% PSD/PPM, 1/2
  6.9% CDU, 1
  5.4% BE, 0/1
  5.1% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 24 and 26 September. Polled 725 voters. MoE of 3.63%.

Eurosondagem poll for Oeiras (Lisbon district), 173,000 inhabitants; (Independent incumbent):

36.7% Isaltino Morais, 5 councillors
16.8% Paulo Vistas, 2
14.0% PS, 2
10.0% PSD/CDS/PPM, 1
  8.0% CDU, 1
  3.0% BE
11.5% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 22 and 25 September. Polled 708 voters. MoE of 3.67%.

[Mike88]

There's no ballots casted or counted yet, but the war in the PSD has already started:

Today, the last day of campaign, a PSD candidate has accused Passos Coelho of "murdering" the PSD in the city of Lisbon. Sofia Vala Rocha, candidate nº 5 in the PSD lists for Lisbon city, gave an interview to Diário de Noticias newspaper, and she wasn't gentle in her words. She accused Passos Coelho of "murdering" the party in the city and said that the PSD candidate for Lisbon, Teresa Leal Coelho, doesn't know how to to be in politics.

This interview has already been criticized by many PSD members who accuse Sofia Vala Rocha of being an "usefull idiot" and "repugnant".

Things are getting very hot in the PSD and with Rui Rio probably announcing his candidacy in the next few days, everything may escalate.

[Mike88]

The campaign is officially over. Saturday is reflection day, so all political or campaign news are banned.

Last campaign events with the main party leaders:

Costa (PS) with Fernando Medina in Lisbon. Toasting to victory?


Passos Coelho (PSD) at a rally in Felgueiras (Porto district).


Assunção Cristas making her last pitch to voters in Lisbon.


Jerónimo de Sousa (PCP) also in Lisbon, supporting the CDU candidate, João Ferreira (on the left).


Catarina Martins (BE), campaigning in Porto city.

[Mike88]

Well, election day has arrived.

Polling stations will open at 8:00 and will close at 19:00. In Azores, polling stations open, and close, a hour later due to time zones.

There will 11,180 polling stations across the country, in which the 9,412,461 registered voters can cast their ballots. There are a total of 12,076 candidacies: 1,404 for Mayor (Municipal Chamber), 1,364 for the Municipal Assembly and 9,308 for the Parish Assemblies.

More info here.

[Mike88]

The main party leaders have already voted. In 30 minutes, the first numbers of turnout until 12:00 will be released.

[Mike88]

Turnout seems to be high!!

Until 12:00, 22.05% of voters had cast a ballot. That's more than the 19.44% in 2013 and even higher than the 20.65% in the 2015 general elections. Let's see, at 17:00, if the trend continues. Very good news so far.

[Mike88]

Turnout seems to be high!!

Until 12:00, 22.05% of voters had cast a ballot. That's more than the 19.44% in 2013 and even higher than the 20.65% in the 2015 general elections. Let's see, at 17:00, if the trend continues. Very good news so far.

Compared with previous local elections. Turnout at 12:00:

2013: 19.4%
2009: 21.3%
2005: 20.0%

[Mike88]

Just came back from voting. There were lines in every voting section except mine. Weird.

At 17:00, the turnout numbers until 16:00 will be released. My guess is that they will be higher than the 43% from 2013.

[Mike88]

Turnout at 16:00 stood at 44.39%. A bit higher than in 2013, 43.3%, but now lower than the 44.65% at the same time in the 2015 general elections.

My guess is that turnout will be around 54-55%.

[Mike88]

Sites to follow the results:

https://www.autarquicas2017.mai.gov.pt/
http://observador.pt/
http://expresso.sapo.pt/

TV coverage links:

https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp3
http://sicnoticias.sapo.pt/especiais/autarquicas-2017/2017-10-01-Abstencao-entre-403-e-448-1
http://tviplayer.iol.pt/direto/TVI24

I think all TV coverage sites can be seen by people outside Portugal.

[Hans-im-Glück]

I don't think there will be big changes. The PS had a very good result last time and this election it will be similar. Today the PSD will have another bad day. In the next days we can say Good Bye Passos Coelho

For me with roots in the Algarve the most intresting cities are Faro (last time it was very close for the PSD vs. the PS), Portimão (will the PS hold it) and Silves (will the PCP win again?)

[Mike88]

I don't think there will be big changes. The PS had a very good result last time and this election it will be similar. Today the PSD will have another bad day. In the next days we can say Good Bye Passos Coelho

For me with roots in the Algarve the most intresting cities are Faro (last time it was very close for the PSD vs. the PS), Portimão (will the PS hold it) and Silves (will the PCP win again?)

Exactly. Make way to Rui Rio.

Faro i think, this time, will vote PS. Portimão, i think, is one of the few cities that has a CDS-PSD coalition, we'll see who wins. Silves is a lock for PCP, no doubt at all.

[Hans-im-Glück]

I don't think there will be big changes. The PS had a very good result last time and this election it will be similar. Today the PSD will have another bad day. In the next days we can say Good Bye Passos Coelho

For me with roots in the Algarve the most intresting cities are Faro (last time it was very close for the PSD vs. the PS), Portimão (will the PS hold it) and Silves (will the PCP win again?)

Exactly. Make way to Rui Rio.

Faro i think, this time, will vote PS. Portimão, i think, is one of the few cities that has a CDS-PSD coalition, we'll see who wins. Silves is a lock for PCP, no doubt at all.

I think in Portimão it will be very close. Historical it is a stronghold for the PS, but we will see

[Mike88]

I don't think there will be big changes. The PS had a very good result last time and this election it will be similar. Today the PSD will have another bad day. In the next days we can say Good Bye Passos Coelho

For me with roots in the Algarve the most intresting cities are Faro (last time it was very close for the PSD vs. the PS), Portimão (will the PS hold it) and Silves (will the PCP win again?)

Exactly. Make way to Rui Rio.

Faro i think, this time, will vote PS. Portimão, i think, is one of the few cities that has a CDS-PSD coalition, we'll see who wins. Silves is a lock for PCP, no doubt at all.

I think in Portimão it will be very close. Historical it is a stronghold for the PS, but we will see

Yeah, in 2013 Portimão was a mess. With the PSD and CDS united this year, it can be quite close.

Also, rumours that Medina (PS Lisbon) and Rui Moreira (Porto) will win with a majority.

[Mike88]

Polls have closed in mainland Portugal and Madeira. Still open in Azores.

RTP turnout projection: 53-58%

SIC turnout projection: 55.2-59.7%

TVI turnout projection: 52-56%

[Hans-im-Glück]

Polls have closed in mainland Portugal and Madeira. Still open in Azores.

RTP turnout projection: 53-58%

SIC turnout projection: 55.2-59.7%

TVI turnout projection: 52-56%

It seems it is a little bit more than 2013, but still the second worst of all times.

[Mike88]

1st results from the 2017 elections:

Parish of São João de Peso, Vila de Rei (Castelo Branco district), 126 registered voters:

Votes for Municipal Chamber:

58 PSD
26 PS
  2 CDS
  0 CDU
  3 Invalid

Votes for Municipal Assembly:

56 PSD
26 PS
  2 CDS
  1 CDU
  4 Invalid

No election for Parish Assembly.

[Hans-im-Glück]

1st results from the 2017 elections:

Parish of São João de Peso, Vila de Rei (Castelo Branco district), 126 registered voters:

Votes for Municipal Chamber:

58 PSD
26 PS
  2 CDS
  0 CDU
  3 Invalid

Votes for Municipal Assembly:

56 PSD
26 PS
  2 CDS
  1 CDU
  4 Invalid

No election for Parish Assembly.

This is the smallest Parish of continental Portugal Last time the PSD had 74 votes. It's a bad start for the PSD

[Mike88]

1st results from the 2017 elections:

Parish of São João de Peso, Vila de Rei (Castelo Branco district), 126 registered voters:

Votes for Municipal Chamber:

58 PSD
26 PS
  2 CDS
  0 CDU
  3 Invalid

Votes for Municipal Assembly:

56 PSD
26 PS
  2 CDS
  1 CDU
  4 Invalid

No election for Parish Assembly.

This is the smallest Parish of continental Portugal Last time the PSD had 74 votes. It's a bad start for the PSD

Yeah, but everyone lost votes. The vote share is PSD: 65.2%; PS: 29.2%; CDS: 2.2%. PSD basically the same from 2013 (66.1%). PS, on the other hand, increased 4 points.

[Mike88]

Exit polls for the main cities will be announced at the top of the hour. At the same time, many small cities are already counted.

[Mike88]

Exit polls:

Lisbon: PS victory; PSD in third tied with CDU. Ouch!
Porto: Moreira majority; PSD also in third
Oeiras: Isaltino victory
Coimbra: PS victory; minority

[Mike88]

First national results: 8.2% counted (all small parishes)

44.9% PSD
36.8% PS
  5.4% CDU
  3.9% Indy
  2.8% CDS
  0.4% BE

[Mike88]

PSD is humiliated in the big urban cities. However, first results show the PSD with better results on rural areas compared with 2013.

Mayors elected:

1 PS
0 PSD
0 CDU
0 CDS
0 BE
0 Indy