Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Political earthquake in Porto continues to make headlines.

Now, the PS has withdrawn their councilmen from Porto city council and Rui Moreira loses his majority. The move isn't surprising as it was anticipated because Manuel Pizarro, the PS chosen candidate, is the highest ranked Socialist in city hall.

But Rui Moreira is now relying on the PSD to have a majority. Although the PSD in Porto city hall is completely separated from the PSD campaign in Porto, this move could signal what could happen if Moreira doesn't win a majority in October. Moreira could choose to govern with the PSD rather than the PS, a much more natural ally in my opinion, as the vast majority of his electorate is from the PSD.

We will see how the race in Porto unfolds but one thing is certain, the PS just got burned by Moreira.

[Mike88]

Update on the political scene:

After the Porto "earthquake", parties are reassessing their chances in Porto city. The PSD got an injection of hope because of this debacle and now they want to glue Rui Moreira to the PS. Rui Moreira admits the race has changed considerably while the PS is in full chaos. No one knows how the PS will ran against Moreira after all the things they said in the past few months.

On the national scene, Assunção Cristas, CDS leader and Lisbon mayoral candidate, is on the spotlight after she unveiled a plan to increase the Lisbon subway on... 20 new stations!


Lisbon's subway plan presented by Assunção Cristas.

This plan comes just days after the government unveiled a plan to built new 3 subway stations in downtown Lisbon. But here's the problem, the plan she unveiled isn't new. It was actually proposed by former PM José Sócrates and Lisbon's mayor... António Costa in 2009. At that time, the plan was very criticized by the PSD and... CDS because of the bad economic and budget situation. As a result, pretty much everybody is criticizing her for using Parliament to announce plans for the city of Lisbon, because she is elected from Leiria District, plus are asking her how will she pay for this. 

Also, the tensions between PS and PSD are creating situations of standstill in many governmental bureaus. ERC, the media regulator, is without a president for almost a year because of disagreements between both major parties and now presidency of parliament's supervision of the secret services is blocked by the PS. The PSD nominated Teresa Morais, MP from Leiria, to head the agency but the PS blocked it and now the PSD is asking for the intervention of the PM.

[Mike88]

May poll from Eurosondagem:



Popularity ratings:


Poll conducted between May 3rd and May 10th. Polled 1,005 voters. MoE of 3.09%

No big changes in the major parties. Both PS and PSD lose some support while CDS and CDU would see increases in their shares. In this poll, PAN would lose their only seat in Parliament.

Link.

Seat projections:

104 (+18) PS
  83    (-6) PSD
  18    (-1) BE
  14    (-3) CDU
  11    (-7) CDS
    0    (-1) PAN

With a PSD/CDS coalition scenario:

102 (+16) PS
  98    (-9) PSD/CDS
  17    (-2) BE
  13    (-4) CDU
    0    (-1) PAN

[Mike88]

More posters unveiled for the October local elections:

João Semedo, BE candidate for Porto:

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[Mike88]

Aximage poll for May:

42.4% PS
24.5% PSD
10.0% BE
  7.7% CDU
  5.4% CDS
10.0% Others/Invalid/Undecided

Conducted between 5 and 8 May. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%

Seat projections:

121 (+35) PS Absolute Majority
  67 ( -22) PSD
  18    (-1) BE
  16    (-1) CDU
    8 ( -10) CDS
    1     (=) PAN

With a PSD/CDS coalition scenario:

115 (+29) PS
  81 ( -26) PSD/CDS
  18    (-1) BE
  15    (-2) CDU
    1    (= ) PAN

Link.

We badly need some other polling company to make a poll. The numbers from Aximage and Eurosondagem are completely different from each other.

[Mike88]

Another party switch in the local elections:

This time is Pedrogão Grande (Leiria District), a huge PSD bastion. Here, the PSD decided to nominate the former mayor of the city João Marques, mayor between 1997 and 2013, instead of the current mayor, also from the PSD, Valdemar Alves.


João Marques (left), Valdemar Alves (right)

This move infuriated the current mayor and he vowed he would run for reelection with or without a party's support. But the local PS has decided to support him, as he is one of the only chance they have of capturing this strong PSD bastion.


Location of Pedrogão Grande in Leiria District.

A poll from early March shows a close race here, with still a lot of undecideds:

24.8% Valdemar Alves (Ind./PS)
19.5% João Marques (PSD)
11.8% Others/Blank
  5.1% Wouldn't vote
15.9% Undecided
22.9% Didn't respond

Another interesting race to watch.

[DavidB.]

Will the Portuguese broadcaster be able to properly fund Eurovision 2018? I know that broadcasters in countries like Denmark and Sweden would prefer not to win again because even if the "big five" pay for 80% of the costs, hosting Eurovision remains very expensive.

[Mike88]

Will the Portuguese broadcaster be able to properly fund Eurovision 2018? I know that broadcasters in countries like Denmark and Sweden would prefer not to win again because even if the "big five" pay for 80% of the costs, hosting Eurovision remains very expensive.

That's a big question that the media is already raising, as this article explains. The RTP has falling ratings and is constantly in budget problems. The former PSD/CDS government wanted to privatize it but there was a ridiculous movement against it saying that democracy would die if RTP was privatized. LOL

They have a annual budget of around 235 million euros. The article says the average cost of a eurovision contest is around 30 million euros, although this total amount will not be paid by RTP, but, nonetheless, it will have a serious impact of the finances of the RTP. It's possible that they could ask for another government emergency fund, but will deteriorate even more the financial health of the company.

But there's another problem cooking already. Unlike other countries who made competitions to choose the city to host the event, apparently the decision is already made and it will be in MEO Arena in Lisbon. This could infuriate many people in the North and Porto region, particularly the mayor of Porto, Rui Moreira.

[Mike88]

Speech of the leader of the People's Monarchist Party (PPM), Gonçalo da Câmara Pereira, about Assunção Cristas, CDS leader and mayoral candidate for Lisbon, has gone viral.


Gonçalo da Câmara Pereira

On the signing of the coalition agreement between CDS, PPM and MPT, the leader of PPM made a speech that has gone viral. In the speech he praised Assunção Cristas for being a woman and for not neglecting her work and her house duties. He also added that "as a woman, Dr. Assunção Cristas is well aware that in order to work, you can not wear a corset or your skirt, the skirt has to be wide and, if necessary, to wear pants."

Of course this speech went viral and now nearly everybody is mocking the speech.

[Mike88]

Early voting and ballots in braille will be possible in the 2019 elections.


People voting in the 2015 elections.

The PS and PSD have reach an agreement to change the electoral laws. Both parties agreed to expand early voting for all voters, currently only voters who aren't in the country at the time of voting or that have other obstacle that prevents them for voting can vote early. Voters will have to notify the Interior ministry 15 days before election day and then voters have to deliver the ballot until the 7th day before election day.

Ballots in braille will also be introduced to facilitate voting for blind people. Plus, PS and PSD also agreed to make registration of emigrants automatic and voters living outside of Portugal will be able to choose if they want to vote by mail or vote in the consulates or embassies.

[Mike88]

Poll of Polls - May 2017



Vote share % (compared with last month):

40.7% (+0.3) PS
27.5% ( -0.4) PSD
  9.4% (+0.1) BE
  7.7% (   =  ) CDU
  6.1% ( -0.1) CDS
  1.4% ( -0.1) PAN
  7.1% (+0.1) Others/Invalid

Seat projection (compared with last month):

111 (+1) PS
  77 ( -1) PSD
  18 ( = ) BE
  15 ( = ) CDU
    8 ( = ) CDS
    1 ( = ) PAN

Seat projection if PSD/CDS ran in a coalition:

109 PS
  88 PSD/CDS
  18 BE
  14 CDU
    1 PAN

Link.

[Mike88]

The pay back against Rui Moreira may have already started...

Público newspaper reports today the Rui Moreira's, Porto mayor, family business wants to built buildings in a property owned by Porto city hall. Because of this, his family's company has at the moment a legal feud with Porto city hall. The project was apparently well under way until a City hall employee found contradictions in the contracts and warned that the project couldn't go ahead.



The report by Público implies that there might have been a collusion between Porto city hall, led by Moreira, and his family company to cover up the report of the city hall employee against the project. Since 2002 Selminho, the company in question, is battling in court to gain the right to built in the property in question or to receive a compensation. A revelation of the report would damage the company's fortunes.

Porto city hall and Rui Moreira have already reacted to the news saying that Público newspaper and their opposition are creating a campaign of "defamation and insidiousness". Porto city hall has already handed over to the Public Prosecutor's Office a criminal complaint against the newspaper.

The Selminho affair has been in public discussion for some months now, but few were actually talking about it other than the PSD. Since the divorce between the PS and Rui Moreira in early May, things have escalated.

[Mike88]

Update on the local elections:

Braga district, the "Portuguese Ohio", is now officially a headache for the PS.


Braga district.

Braga district is becoming a huge headache for the PS with many splits in the party that could make this district even more "orange". Braga District is a swing district in which you can say: "If Braga goes, so goes the nation." ; it has voted for the national winner in general or local elections since the mid 70's but since 2011, the district is swinging heavily to the PSD. An now, in the run up to the fall local elections, the local PS parties in the district are just being torn apart.

By city:
In Vizela, the incumbent PS mayor, Dinis Costa, withdrew from the race and now the PS is supporting an independent that in 2013 supported... the PSD candidate. Ouch!

In Barcelos, the party broke in two. The incumbent mayor is running for reelection but his deputy wanted also to run, so he left the PS and now he's running as an independent. This could be a gain for the PSD.

In Póvoa de Lanhoso, another split in the PS. The party has 2 candidates. One is the official PS candidate, Frederico Castro, and the other a former PS mayor from the city.

In Fafe, the same thing. The local party nominated Antero Barbosa to run but the national party didn't like it and insted nominated the current mayor, Raul Cunha. In 2013, the PS won Fafe by just 0.05%!!

In Amares, the incumbent PS mayor switch parties and is now running with the support of the PSD/CDS.

And in Braga city, a PS bastion between 1976 and 2013, the PS is also splited as the candidate chosen is very unpopular in the party for he's criticisms to the former mayor of Braga, between 1976 and 2013, Mesquita Machado.

Adding to all of this, the PS district direction from Braga approved a censorship motion against the national coordinator of the PS, Ana Catarina Mendes, and heavily criticized António Costa for not caring about the party.

[Mike88]

The Braga District post above, made me want to write about whats going on across the country. So, i will post what's going on in the crazy local elections campaigns across the country.

Porto District (my district)


Porto District

Here, both PS and PSD have some problems but nothing like the scale of Braga. In a few cities both parties have spilt and many candidates from the same political party are running. So, let's start:

In Felgueiras, the PS candidate withdrew from the race leaving the PS with no one to run. Pedro Araújo was chosen in March but the party withdrew their support and he quit. Why? Because the local PS realised they weren't going to win with him. Well... now it's going to be even harder.

Maia is also awkward for the PS. The PS choose Francisco Vieira de Carvalho, son of the late mayor of Maia, José Vieira de Carvalho, from... the PSD! The selection, of course, wasn't very well received in some ranks of the party.

Matosinhos, a PS bastion but which is creating huge problems for the PS and the PSD. The PS has not 1, not 2 but 3 candidates from the party. Luisa Salgueiro is the official candidate of the party but Narciso Miranda, former PS mayor of the city, is also running as is the 2013 PS candidate, António Parada. You might think this could benefit the PSD but no, because the PSD is also in trouble. The local PSD nominated Joaquim Jorge, an independent which in the past was a PS supporter, but this decision was repudiated by the district party. Threats of judicial consequences and party expulsions started a war between the local PSD and the district PSD. Until now, no decision has been made.

Paredes. Here it was the PSD who spilt in two. In November last year the local PSD held an election to choose a new party president. It was won by Rui Moutinho, a rival of the incumbent PSD mayor Celso Ferreira. The mayor was cheering for his deputy, Joaquim Neves, but at the end, Rui Moutinho was chosen as the candidate. Of course the faction of the party close to the mayor didn't like this and refuse to support Moutinho. Insted, councilwoman Raquel Moreira da Silva left the PSD and is now running as an independent.

In Porto, well, it's madness. The recent divorce between Rui Moreira and the PS has put the race in the city as one of the most unpredictable in the elections. The divorce is turning to be very ugly with the Selminho case now being even used by the PS to get revenge on Moreira. The PS candidate, Manuel Pizarro, will have a though job running against his former boss and the PSD is hoping to gain some support from voters frustrated with Moreira and the PS.

In Vila do Conde, things are not still official but there's a bad climate between the current PS mayor, Elisa Ferraz, and the former PS mayor, Mário Almeida. Ms Ferraz is the only PS incumbent mayor who wasn't still nominated by the party for reelection and she's worried the party will favour her predecessor, Mário Almeida. Nonetheless, she has already stated she's running for reelection with the support of the PS or not.

[Mike88]

Finally!! A Porto poll.

Rui Moreira on the verge of an absolute majority.



Poll conducted between 15 and 16 May. Polled 1,011 voters in Porto city. MoE of 3.07%.

Interesting swings in this poll. Rui Moreira's increase is coming all from the PSD while the PS basically maintains their 2013 score intact. The Moreira/PS divorce may be prompting many PSD voters to support Moreira, instead of the official PSD candidate, to prevent a future PS involvement in Porto city hall.

[Mike88]

Government will meet with local governments to agree closing of schools with few students.



The government will meet with local governments in the next few day to agree the closing of more schools with less than 21 students. This policy started in 2002 with the PSD government and was continued by Sócrates, Passos Coelho and now António Costa.

But pundits and school directors say that any closure will only happen in 2018 because of the local elections in October. Following the footsteps of the previous PSD/CDS government, who didn't close schools on election years, the current government may only present the plan but delay any closure of schools because of fear this could hurt the PS in some close races, particularly in the countryside.

Since 2002, more than 4867 schools were closed across the country. The Sócrates government alone closed 3448 schools.

[Neo-JacobitefromNewYork]

Is there backlash against CDU in Alentejo for local elections because of their support for the Costa Government? Any local splits running as more leftist independents?

Awesome coverage of Portugal politics by the way Mike88

[Mike88]

Is there backlash against CDU in Alentejo for local elections because of their support for the Costa Government? Any local splits running as more leftist independents?

Awesome coverage of Portugal politics by the way Mike88

Thanks for the feedback!

There isn't any signs of potential backlash against CDU in Alentejo or in any city they control across the country. The splits are mainly in the two main parties, the PS and PSD, and in these cases the vast majority are former mayors, who were barred from running for reelection in 2013, that haven't won their parties support and now are running as independents.

But at the same time, CDU will run hard against the PS. For a period a time there was talk of a non aggression pact between both parties but as of today that agreement failed. The CDU has, at the moment, little or none influence in the course of the policies of the government and they want to change that. They don't like that the BE has all the spotlight as the junior supporter of Costa, plus behind the curtains, the first signs of tension between CDU and PS are starting to show because policies the CDU hates like the PSD/CDS labour laws or the deficit reduction aren't going to be changed by Costa. An increase of their 2013 score, plus a weaker result nationally for the PS, is the main goal of CDU right now to gain influence.

[Zanas]

Do you have a few examples of possible CDU gains ? And is there any serious BE target ? Maybe the one municipality they did hold a few years back ?

[Mike88]

Do you have a few examples of possible CDU gains ? And is there any serious BE target ? Maybe the one municipality they did hold a few years back ?

CDU will try to maintain their 2013 score plus attack some cities they lost in 2013 or cities where CDU and PS basically tied. All of them are in Alentejo. For example, Vendas Novas (Évora district), a PS gain in 2013, but it was quite close in 2013 and Vendas Novas is very CDU leaning; Mértola (Beja district) is always very close between PS and CDU; Crato (Portalegre district) was a PS gain in 2013 but the incumbent mayor in not running so this could help CDU; Nisa (Portalegre district) it was also a PS gain in 2013 but a very close one between PS, CDU and PSD resulting in a 3 way race.

So, as you can see, CDU can upset the PS in many places but they need to hold on to tight cities like Beja, Loures or Sesimbra. In these cities, the PS will run hard to gain them.

BE, in my prediction a few pages back, wasn't even contesting any city but in the last few days that changed. In Salvaterra de Magos (Santarém district), the BE nominated their former mayor, Ana Cristina Ribeiro, to run against the incumbent PS mayor. She was quite popular as mayor winning the 2001, 2005 and 2009 elections with results close to 50% of the vote, therefore this could be a possible BE gain. Plus, the PSD hasn't announced their candidate yet and, although, they will nominate someone, i wouldn't be surprised if they drop this one and urge PSD voters in Salvaterra to vote BE to block PS.

[Mike88]

The official logo for the October 1st local elections was unveiled yesterday:



From here: Link.

[Mike88]

Poll for Leiria, from Eurosondagem:

Q1: Who would you vote if the Parliamentary elections were held today?

37.8% PS
36.9% PSD
  7.2% BE
  5.9% CDS
  3.2% CDU
  1.1% PAN
  7.9% Others/Invalid

Q2: Who will you vote for in the local elections in October?

52.0% 7/8 PS
26.6% 3/4 PSD
  4.9%       CDU
  4.2%       BE
  3.0%       CDS
  9.3%       Others/Invalid

Conducted between 2 and 9 May. Polled 1,069 voters. MoE of 2.98%

According to this poll, almost 30% of the PSD electorate will vote for the PS candidate, and incumbent mayor, Raul Castro. But, interestingly, this poll result almost matches the 2013 election results:

Leiria 2013 results:

46.3% 7 PS
27.8% 4 PSD
  4.7%    CDS
  4.4%    CDU
  3.3%    BE
13.5%    Blank/Invalid

[Neo-JacobitefromNewYork]

You're welcome Mike and I guess Alentejo's declining population might mitigate any radicalism among dissidents CDU members.

[Mike88]

Maybe. Alentejo's CDU politicians, and the electorate as well, are still from the old guard of the party. The new generation of the party, on the other hand, is much more radical.

Also, another split in the PS is confirmed. This time in Vila do Conde (Porto district) where the local PS refused to support the incumbent mayor, Elisa Ferraz, and instead nominated António Caetano, the deputy mayor.


Eliza Ferraz (left) and António Caetano (right).

Eliza Ferraz, nonetheless, has announced she will run for reelection as an independent. This could help the PSD/CDS gain this strong PS bastion. In 2013 both parties, although running separately, achieved a total sum of 39% of the vote. If they manage to hold on to that share of the vote with a divided PS, the PSD/CDS could have a historic gain in Vila do Conde.

[Mike88]

Update on political events:

The government hit a big bump in the road as an investigation by Diário de Noticias unveiled that the government created a whole department, to deal with legal issues, in which the vast majority of workers are non paid interns. According to the newspaper, the department assesses the impact of laws approved by the government. But the problem is that non paid professional internships are illegal. The government tried to explain that these non paid interns will get a good review on their CV, but this explanation fell flat.


Building of the Council of Ministers where the controversial department is based.

All of this happens as the government, with the support of BE and CDU, is regularizing the situation of precarious workers in the civil service. So the optics of this looks very bad. And the PSD/CDS opposition is already accusing the government of hypocrisy as they converge that the government is "advertising misleading propaganda". The BE was also very harsh saying that there's evidence of illegal internships in the government and they need to end.