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Mike88
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« Reply #250 on: March 30, 2017, 10:03:28 AM »

Now it's official. The government officially scheduled the 2017 local elections to be held on October 1st. The minister of the presidency, Maria Manuel Leitão Marques, said today, that cabinet agreed in the date of October 1st after all parties unanimously proposed the same date. Never in recent history has an election been called so early like this one.

Also, there's a small war going on inside the PS-Madeira because of the PM's visit to Madeira earlier this week.

The PM, and secretary general of the PS, came to Madeira to be present in the renaming of the Funchal airport to Cristiano Ronaldo airport but at the same time negotiated with JPP - Together for the People, a small party in Madeira - their support for the reelection campaign of Funchal's mayor, Paulo Cafofo. This wasn't well received in the local party and the caucus chairman of the PS in Madeira parliament resigned with harsh words to Mr. Costa. He accused the PM and general secretary of "impinging from the continent a governance for the island's party" and that this is unacceptable..
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Mike88
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« Reply #251 on: March 30, 2017, 02:01:39 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2017, 02:08:48 PM by Mike88 »

Mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS) is charged with another corruption case.

After the Public Prosecution Service asked for the loss of mandate of the mayor of Ourém earlier this year because of corruption charges, the prosecution asks for another loss of mandate for the mayor because of an alleged forgery of documents and embezzlement.

This time, he is accused of paying a coach from a local football team Ourém with money from a local municipal company called OurémViva. The coach started receiving the wage from the local company without even working there.

It will be interesting to see a poll, if one is made, for Ourém because the guy is running for reelection.
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Mike88
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« Reply #252 on: March 31, 2017, 10:25:03 AM »

What i posted in the economic forum about the Novo Banco (former BES) sell:
Well, the sell is over. The government and Lone Star funds agreed on a deal to sell the bank and the PM will announce it today, with a very nervous PS behind him.

The deal is not quite what the government had been promising. When the bank went bust in 2014, the government injected 4.9 billion euros in the bank and who ever bought the bank should pay that amount or an amount in which the losses for the state would be manageable. And adding to this, the current PS government made clear that the state would not give a single guarantee to the buyer of the bank and this was said over and over again in the last few months. But, Mr. Costa made a big U-turn and the government will give, indirectly, a guarantee of 4 billion euros to Lone Star funds, the new owner of Novo Banco.

The deal is basically this:

1. The government will sell 75% of the bank to Lone Star funds by "zero" euros;
2. But at the same time, the government or the resolution fund (fund where banks of the system and the government are part of) will still have 25% of the bank although with no power what so to make any decisions in the bank;
3. The resolution fund will give a guarantee to Lone Star funds to cover any risks;
4. The government agreed to inject more money in the bank when the ratios of the bank are not achieved;
5. And finally, the 4.9 billions euros the governmet injected in 2014, are pretty much lost;

Everybody knew that the government would lose money, but as a taxpayer this deal is very bad and even worse than expected.

It's unclear the political consequences this deal will have. Like i said above, the PS is apparently nervous to see the PM being the face of this deal. They would rather have the finance minister because he, politically, doesn't have much credibility.

The main point that could hurt the government, is that they've been pressing and pressing that no state guarantee would be made to the buyer and they dropped that. This is a huge U-turn. Plus, the PCP and the BE wanted the nationalization of the bank, how will they react to this deal?
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Mike88
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« Reply #253 on: April 01, 2017, 10:51:12 AM »

Many in this thread ask why some regions of Portugal are very left or rightwing and that can be explained by many factors like a strong influence of the Catholic Church but one of the main factors that cemented political positions in different regions of the country was land ownership and the size of it.

Of course, today, that's not an issue but 45 years ago it was a big deal. After the 1974 revolution the big land owners of the south were striped of their lands and those lands were given to the workers. This scared the hell out of the small land owners in the North and Center of the country and therefore created this strong North-South divide that election after election we see in the map.

But this map explains it better. This map shows the size of land explored by parish. Take a look at it:

The redder the parish is, the smaller the size of land explored is.
The greener the parish is, the greater the size of the land explored is.

And now take a look at the parish map of the 2015 elections:
The site that i posted earlier this week, aggregates awesome maps but didn't have a map of the 2015 election. So i decided to make one. And here it is:




The election results by parish and the map with the land size explored by owners are almost an exact match. Small land owners vote massively for PSD or CDS. The bastions of the PSD, the Viseu area, Aveiro, Leiria, Madeira and parts of Bragança and Guarda are home to small properties, although here the PS has some points of strong support, but overall this is PSD country.

The South is painted in green, particularly the Alentejo area where it's home to the big land properties striped from their owners in the 70's due to the Agrarian Reform. Nowadays many of these lands are owned by foreign investors from Spain, UK or France, although a few are still owned by workers. But the voting patterns remained intact. The Algarve area, particularly the coastal part, have also high rates of small land owners and they tend to vote PSD.

Madeira, like i said in a post above, is a small property island and therefore PSD country. While Azores is mixed.

Hope you understood this fascinating division in Portuguese politics.
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warandwar
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« Reply #254 on: April 01, 2017, 06:48:19 PM »

What do you mean by land "explored?"
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Mike88
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« Reply #255 on: April 01, 2017, 07:10:18 PM »

What do you mean by land "explored?"
It means land owned by someone who then hires or works on the land. It's a term we use in Portugal "terra explorada".
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MaxQue
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« Reply #256 on: April 01, 2017, 07:16:32 PM »

What do you mean by land "explored?"
It means land owned by someone who then hires or works on the land. It's a term we use in Portugal "terra explorada".

Simply, it's the average size of a farm?
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Mike88
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« Reply #257 on: April 01, 2017, 07:33:01 PM »

What do you mean by land "explored?"
It means land owned by someone who then hires or works on the land. It's a term we use in Portugal "terra explorada".

Simply, it's the average size of a farm?
Exactly.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #258 on: April 02, 2017, 05:22:59 AM »

Many in this thread ask why some regions of Portugal are very left or rightwing and that can be explained by many factors like a strong influence of the Catholic Church but one of the main factors that cemented political positions in different regions of the country was land ownership and the size of it.

Of course, today, that's not an issue but 45 years ago it was a big deal. After the 1974 revolution the big land owners of the south were striped of their lands and those lands were given to the workers. This scared the hell out of the small land owners in the North and Center of the country and therefore created this strong North-South divide that election after election we see in the map.

But this map explains it better. This map shows the size of land explored by parish. Take a look at it:


The redder the parish is, the smaller the size of land explored is.
The greener the parish is, the greater the size of the land explored is.

And now take a look at the parish map of the 2015 elections:
The site that i posted earlier this week, aggregates awesome maps but didn't have a map of the 2015 election. So i decided to make one. And here it is:


The election results by parish and the map with the land size explored by owners are almost an exact match. Small land owners vote massively for PSD or CDS. The bastions of the PSD, the Viseu area, Aveiro, Leiria, Madeira and parts of Bragança and Guarda are home to small properties, although here the PS has some points of strong support, but overall this is PSD country.

The South is painted in green, particularly the Alentejo area where it's home to the big land properties striped from their owners in the 70's due to the Agrarian Reform. Nowadays many of these lands are owned by foreign investors from Spain, UK or France, although a few are still owned by workers. But the voting patterns remained intact. The Algarve area, particularly the coastal part, have also high rates of small land owners and they tend to vote PSD.

Madeira, like i said in a post above, is a small property island and therefore PSD country. While Azores is mixed.

Hope you understood this fascinating division in Portuguese politics.

Based on the Spanish experience, even if there had been no land reform after the 1974 Revolution, that divide would have continued to exist. In Spain, the same pattern exists, based on how land was distributed and territories repopulated with Christians during the Reconquista. The map even explains literacy discrepancies in the 19th century or even educational attainment nowadays.
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Mike88
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« Reply #259 on: April 03, 2017, 11:43:40 AM »

The first campaign posters of the 2017 elections are up:

In Porto, Álvaro Almeida (PSD/PPM candidate):

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In Lisbon, Assunção Cristas (CDS candidate):

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...and my favorite of them:

Cool  Cool  Cool
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Mike88
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« Reply #260 on: April 04, 2017, 11:22:58 AM »

António Costa: "I don't dream with an absolute majority."

In an interview to Radio Renascença today, the PM said he doesn't have dreams with an absolute majority and even if he wins one in the next election he would still form agreements with PCP and BE. Of course he wants an absolute majority but he won't admit it now although it will be very difficult for him to win a majority in the 2019, if not earlier, elections especially because, apparently, the PSD is not giving up hope of forming another coalition with CDS.

Tomorrow it will be Passos Coelho turn to give an interview on SIC TV. But according to some reports, Mr. Passos Coelho is going through a rough time in his personal life as his wife, Laura Ferreira, has been diagnosed with cancer again.
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Mike88
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« Reply #261 on: April 05, 2017, 03:14:42 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2017, 04:35:40 PM by Mike88 »

Mayor of Tomar fined in 10,000 euros for not responding to a citizen request.



The mayor of Tomar, Santarém district, has been fined in about 10,000 euros for not responding, in the appropriate time, to a citizen request. Anabela Freitas (PS) and Tomar city hall didn't respond to a citizen request to demolish an illegal construction next to his house within the period established by law. After months of wainting and no response, the citizen went to the courts and now a Leiria court has ruled that the mayor and the city hall acted in bad faith and a fine has to be paid.

The mayor has already responded to this saying it is surreal and that she doesn't have that kind of money because her salary is 2,600 euros per month.

This story is so weird. Adding to this, she is running for reelection, so we will see if this hurts her or, on the contrary, favours her in the eyes of the electorate.
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Mike88
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« Reply #262 on: April 06, 2017, 12:56:37 PM »

Interesting developments in Lisbon...

The population of Carnide, a parish in North Lisbon, removed, during the night, parking meters across the parish.



The population of Carnide, a parish of around 19.000 inhabitants in the North of Lisbon, removed during the night many parking meters across the parish and returned them to Lisbon city hall and to EMEL (Lisbon's parking management company). With the support of the parish president, a total of 200 people removed one by one the parking meters in protest for the city hall's failed promises to the parish.

According to the president of the parish, Fábio Sousa (CDU), the parish has a parking problem and Lisbon's mayor promised to built a new parking slot and upgrade the roads in the parish. Nothing, until now, was done but at the same time numerous parking meters were put in place in the parish by EMEL which infuriated the inhabitants of Carnide. He adds that in four streets in Carnide historic center, there are 12 parking meters and that the city hall knew the parish was against this and, nonetheless, didn't cared about the parish opinion.

The mayor of Lisbon, Fernando Medina (PS), has already labeled this as "vandalism" and that all parking meters will be placed again in the same places.

Will this create problems in the October elections? In 2013 the PS won 50% of the vote here, and because parking spaces are a main concern for Lisbon inhabitants, it could hurt the PS campaign... Will see.
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Mike88
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« Reply #263 on: April 06, 2017, 02:20:52 PM »
« Edited: April 06, 2017, 02:33:25 PM by Mike88 »

Also in Porto...

Rui Rio and Passos Coelho will be together in the presentation of the PSD candidate in Porto.



The two politicians, who could run against each other for the PSD leadership in 2018, will be together in their support for Álvaro Almeida, the PSD candidate for Porto, on Saturday in the official presentation of the PSD candidate. Many thought that Mr Rio would not support any candidate like he did in 2013, although everybody knew he voted for Rui Moreira, the current mayor of Porto.

According to the article, the PSD believes that Mr. Rio could be an asset for the campaign because of the bad image the PSD opposition has in Porto city hall.
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Mike88
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« Reply #264 on: April 07, 2017, 07:00:46 AM »

April poll from Eurosondagem:



Popularity ratings:


Poll conducted between 30 March and 5 April. Polled 1,003 voters. MoE of 3.09%

Link.
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Mike88
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« Reply #265 on: April 07, 2017, 09:56:00 AM »

April poll from Eurosondagem:



Popularity ratings:


Poll conducted between 30 March and 5 April. Polled 1,003 voters. MoE of 3.09%

Link.
Seat projections:

106 (+20) PS
  82    (-7) PSD
  18    (-1) BE
  14    (-3) CDU
    9    (-9) CDS
    1    (= ) PAN

With a PSD/CDS coalition scenario:

103 (+17) PS
  97 (- 10) PSD/CDS
  17    (-2) BE
  12    (-5) CDU
    1    ( =) PAN
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Mike88
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« Reply #266 on: April 07, 2017, 10:26:12 AM »

Update on the local elections:

Isaltino Morais, former mayor of Oeiras and convicted and jailed due to corruption charges, announced he will run as an independent in Oeiras. In a statement Mr Morais said that "the people of Oeiras practically forced him to run" and the he was in fact invited to be the PSD candidate but he declined.

So, in these elections there will be 2 independents running in Oeiras. The current president Paulo Vistas will run for another term in the coalition Isaltino Morais formed for himself in 2005.

So here are the candidates for Oeiras - the 2nd most wealthy city in Portugal:

Left - Paulo Vistas, Ind - Incumbent; Right - Isaltino Morais, Ind


Left - Joaquim Raposo, PS; Right- Ângelo Pereira, PSD (in negotiations with CDS)
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Mike88
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« Reply #267 on: April 08, 2017, 06:59:37 PM »
« Edited: April 08, 2017, 07:02:00 PM by Mike88 »

Aximage poll for April:

42.0% PS
24.6% PSD
  9.5% BE
  7.6% CDU
  4.8% CDS
11.5% Others/Invalid/Undecided

Link.

We're back again to those times where Aximage and Eurosondagem have completely different results...
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Mike88
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« Reply #268 on: April 09, 2017, 07:26:24 AM »

Aximage poll for April:

42.0% PS
24.6% PSD
  9.5% BE
  7.6% CDU
  4.8% CDS
11.5% Others/Invalid/Undecided

Link.

We're back again to those times where Aximage and Eurosondagem have completely different results...

Seat projections:

122 (+36) PS Absolute Majority
  68  (-21) PSD
  17    (-2) BE
  16    (-1) CDU
    6  (-12) CDS
    1    (= ) PAN

With a PSD/CDS coalition scenario:

116 (+30) PS Absolute Majority
  81 (- 26) PSD/CDS
  17    (-2) BE
  15    (-2) CDU
    1    ( =) PAN
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DavidB.
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« Reply #269 on: April 09, 2017, 09:00:25 AM »

As PS minority governments with the left are now possible and the right seems to be structurally weaker than the combined left, how does the right expect to get back into government someday? Hope for a conflict between PS on the one hand and BE/CDU on the other hand?
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Mike88
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« Reply #270 on: April 09, 2017, 12:10:03 PM »
« Edited: April 09, 2017, 12:18:02 PM by Mike88 »

As PS minority governments with the left are now possible and the right seems to be structurally weaker than the combined left, how does the right expect to get back into government someday? Hope for a conflict between PS on the one hand and BE/CDU on the other hand?
Well, a PS minority government with the support of CDU/BE exists because António Costa is the leader of the PS, if it had been someone else like the former PS leader António José Seguro, the PS would never form an agreement with the BE/CDU.

Personally i don't think this will be repeated in the future. The 2015 agreement was not happy nor hopefull, as it was made during a difficult moment for each of the 3 parties. The PS was, and still is, bankrupt. There are several reports of local PS HQ's who have seen their water and light cutted because they don't pay their bills. And the national PS is also in a very bad financial situation, with a huge debt and currently a huge problem with Constitutional Court because of the 2014 primary election budget, as they spent 3 times more than they reported.

The PCP needed to maintain their strong links in the public companies. The former PSD/CDS government wanted to privatize the golden goose of the unions, Public Transportation. If they were privatized, the power of the unions and of the PCP would be greatly diminished. The BE was also seen as threat to the Communists and their surprising good results plus their willingness of helping forming a PS minority government, cornered the Communists.

So, the 2015 agreement was a form of safety net to every part involved in. The PS would be somewhat safe from more financial problems as they were the government party, PCP would have still strong influence in public companies and BE more power to persue their agenda. But, what happened was the opposite. The PS and Mr. Costa outmanoeuvred the PCP/BE and now they are swallowing things they would never imagine. As one political satirist said yesterday the government majority looks like a "mental asylum" with the PS pursuing PSD like policies and the BE/CDU screaming but no one hears them. Don't know if this coalition will last until 2019, but i fear that either the PCP or BE will have the same fate the Lib Dems had in the UK.

The right, is at this moment, depressed. They are still bitter from the 2015 election aftermath, especially the PSD. Plus they based all their strategy in the hope that the PS/BE/CDU agreement would colapse in a matter of a few months but Mr. Costa outmanoeuvred everyone. Mr Passos Coelho is very criticized for being very negative to Mr. Costa, although Mr. Costa isn't a person who likes to hear criticism. Plus he's going through a bad moment personally as he's wife has cancer and the prognosis is not good. He looks very depressed and much less combative than last year.

The right will have a crucial test in the local elections. If they gain a lot of cities, they would shuffle the political mood and gain momentum. If they achieve the same result in 2013, the PSD will have probably a new leader by March 2018 and it will be Rui Rio. Mr. Rio is somewhat more radical than Mr. Coelho, as he's tenure as Porto mayor proves. But he has a lot of political capital that Mr. Coelho doesn't have.

In summary, at the moment the PS is poised to win the next elections. The BE and PCP could be punished for their zero influence in government but many things could go wrong until then. The debt is still high, the Novo Banco sell is pissing off many funds across the world and the economy is still very fragile. The right will come to power, in my opinion, much more sooner than people think but the PSD probably needs a new leader.

Sorry for the long post, but i think it's important to know the background.
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Mike88
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« Reply #271 on: April 09, 2017, 05:02:22 PM »

Eurosondagem poll on who will win the local elections:

50.7% PS
22.1% PSD

Link.

Also, the link, which includes the poll, has a report about how the critics of Mr. Passos Coelho are pushing for Mr. Rui Rio. The article says that almost everybody in the party knows there will be a fight between both Mr. Rio and Mr. Passos in 2018 but that however wins will only be a transition leader until the 2019 elections and then a new leader would be elected, possibly Luis Montenegro, current PSD caucus chairman.

I find it hard to believe that Rui Rio would want to be labeled as "provisional". The guy was always called as the "candidate for candidate" for the PSD leadership and then when he has a chance to finally become leader, they label him like that? The media is assuming Mr Costa and the PS will be in power for a long time with some pundits saying Costa is set for another 8 years. I believe that's a mistake, but then again these are the same people who said, for 4 years, that the PSD/CDS couldn't win the 2015 elections and that Mr Costa government would crack in minutes...
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Mike88
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« Reply #272 on: April 10, 2017, 09:59:24 AM »
« Edited: April 10, 2017, 10:19:29 AM by Mike88 »

Poll of Polls - April 2017



Vote share % (compared with last month):

40.4% (+0.4) PS
27.9% ( -0.4) PSD
  9.3% (+0.2) BE
  7.7% (   =  ) CDU
  6.2% ( -0.3) CDS
  1.5% (   =  ) PAN
  7.0% (+0.1) Others/Invalid

Seat projection (compared with last month):

110 (+1) PS
  78 ( = ) PSD
  18 ( = ) BE
  15 (+1) CDU
    8 ( -2) CDS
    1 ( = ) PAN

Seat projection if PSD/CDS ran in a coalition:

108 PS
  90 PSD/CDS
  17 BE
  14 CDU
    1 PAN

Link.
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Mike88
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« Reply #273 on: April 10, 2017, 01:02:39 PM »

Some interesting numbers:

ERC published the March 2017 Eurosondagem numbers. In that poll the PS led the PSD 38.3% to 28.8%, almost a 10% point lead. The poll also has numbers by gender, age and regions. Here they are:

Gender

Women     Men
  40.3%    36.2% PS
  27.1%    30.6% PSD
    8.5%      9.8% BE
    7.8%      8.0% CDU
    7.2%      7.3% CDS
    1.9%      1.7% PAN
    7.2%      6.4% Others

Age

18 to 30    31 to 59    60 or +
39.7%          37.9%     38.1% PS
27.9%          28.7%     29.4% PSD
11.0%          10.7%       5.7% BE
  3.7%            8.4%       9.6% CDU
  7.3%            6.7%       8.0% CDS
  2.2%            1.8%       1.6% PAN
  8.1%            5.8%       7.6% Others

Region

 North    Porto     Center     Lisbon     South   
36.6%  39.0%     37.7%      38.4%    42.2% PS 
39.5%  28.4%     33.7%      18.7%    20.4% PSD
  5.9%  10.6%       7.9%      12.0%      9.6% BE
  3.5%    5.7%       4.8%      13.0%    15.7% CDU
  7.0%    6.5%       7.4%        8.5%      4.9% CDS
  1.2%    2.4%       1.4%        2.6%      1.2% PAN
  6.3%    7.3%       7.1%        6.7%      6.1% Others

Summary:
There is a small gender gap between PS and PSD. Men are more likely to vote PSD than women; The age vote is quite homogeneous. The only difference is that young voters prefer BE rather CDU and older voters prefer CDU;
In the region vote, the PSD dominates in the North, as normal, and is almost tied with PS in the Center. Porto and Lisbon Metropolitan areas vote massively for the PS as does the South.   
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DavidB.
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« Reply #274 on: April 10, 2017, 01:08:43 PM »

As PS minority governments with the left are now possible and the right seems to be structurally weaker than the combined left, how does the right expect to get back into government someday? Hope for a conflict between PS on the one hand and BE/CDU on the other hand?
[snip]
Sorry for the long post, but i think it's important to know the background.
Don't be sorry -- on the contrary! Thanks so much for this insightful post.
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