Portugal's politics and elections

[mvd10]

Why did Passos Coelho remain party leader after losing the 2015 elections? PM's who lose their reelection bid usually withdraw from politics.

[Mike88]

Why did Passos Coelho remain party leader after losing the 2015 elections? PM's who lose their reelection bid usually withdraw from politics.

He didn't lose the 2015 election. He was the leader of the most voted political force and the PSD actually won more MP's than the PS (89 to 86). No one thought the PS was really going ahead with an agreement with PCP and the BE, although there were talks about it during the campaign. In Portugal there was always the idea that if you win an election, you will govern, period. The PS's move shattered completely this mentality.

Mr Passos Coelho decided to stay because, in my opinion, he truly believed the PS/PCP/BE government would colapse within a couple of months. And for a while the PSD actually led the PS in opinion polls but then everybody realised that Mr Costa had the PCP and BE in his pocket and nothing too radical or extreme would come out of this government. Unfortunately for Mr. Coelho, he continues pressing that the government is too radical and should change course as opinion polling shows the PSD at levels only seen during the troika years.

Could he still be PM? Probably, but it's becoming more and more unlikely and the PSD "establishment" is becoming worried that the party is going nowhere with him. The local elections are a crucial test for him, even though he downplays it. If he, somehow, achieves a good result, he will, once again, stun everybody but if he loses by 2013 levels, get ready because there will be an ugly fight for the PSD leadership.

[Mike88]

Prime Minister will start meeting with party leaders to schedule the local elections.

The PM António Costa will meet, until the end of the month, with all party leaders to hear what date is better to held the local elections.

No one has any rush in calling the election, because the law says that election can only be called, at minimum, 80 days in advance, except the leader of CDS Assunção Cristas.

Looking at the calender, i believe that October 1st is the most likely date.

[Mike88]

Local politics in Portugal are just like a Mexican soap opera.

The candidate chosen by Passos Coelho to run in Lisbon, Teresa Leal Coelho, is creating a bad mood in the local PSD. Why? Because Mr Passos Coelho announced the decision first to PSD-District of Lisbon and only then to the PSD-Lisbon. All of this after, according to the article, the PSD-Lisbon decided that the decision of who runs in Lisbon is of the complete responsibility of Mr Passos Coelho.

And in Porto district, there's another war between the District parties and the local parties. The main point of disagreement is the candidate of the PSD for Matosinhos. The local party approved Joaquim Jorge as the candidate, an independent who want to run for the PSD, but the District party didn't like the choice.

And now there's a war of words between both sides, the District party says that PSD-Matosinhos didn't have the necessary quorum to approve the candidate while the local party says the problem is that they nominated someone from outside the party and that this pisses off the District party.

[Mike88]

Ok, a little history lession:

In the next few weeks, the candidacies for the 308 municipalties and the 3,092 parishes will be closed by all major parties and the campaign will, unofficially, start. The first polls will start being released and also the first posters (local elections are famous for the most hilarious posters. I will post some of them in the future).

Local elections are often used by voters as a way of punishing or warn governments as all governments since 1976 have performed poorly in midterm local elections.

The 1976 election:

The 1976 local elections were the first ever held in Portugal. Although the PS vote share was almost 10% higher than the PSD (34% to 25%), they both tied in number of municipalties. The PSD won the islands of Madeira and Azores plus achieved good results in the north and center of the country. On the other hand the PS won convincingly in the Lisbon and in Porto areas and also in the Algarve. The CDS achieved also good results in rural areas in Guarda, Bragança and Viseu while the PCP dominated the Alentejo area. The election were held just a few months after Mário Soares was nominated PM.

The 1979 election:

These elections resulted in a landslide victory for the AD (Democratic Alliance) and the parties that compose it, the PSD and CDS. The alliance and the PSD/CDS dominated everything in the north and center of the country plus they won the big urban center around Porto and Lisbon. The PS suffered a colossal defeat losing 55 municipalties, as they were punished for their government performance between 1976 and 1978 (where Portugal asked for an IMF loan). On the other hand the PCP reinforced its dominance of the Alentejo area by increasing the number of cities won from 36 to 50. The election was held weeks after the AD landslide win the 1979 general election where Francisco Sá Carneiro was nominated as PM.

The 1982 election:

The 1982 local election was the first midterm local elections. This election was held under difficult circumstances. The country was still recovering from the shock and tragic dead of Francisco Sá Carneiro in a plane crash in December 1980. After his dead, the PSD nominated Francisco Pinto Balsemão as PM but his lack of leadership affected the economy and by 1982 the country was almost in a recession. Although the PSD won more cities than the PS, the magnitude of the PSD's loss was overwhelming. The PS improved their vote share to 31% and gained more then 20 cities from the PSD. The PCP continued to strengthen their huge dominance in the Alentejo. As a result of these election results, the PM, Francisco Pinto Balsemão, resigned and a snap election was called for April 1983, which was won by the PS.

The 1985 election:

The 1985 local elections were the first under Cavaco Silva leadership. Just 2 months after winning the 1985 general elections, the PSD won a landslide in the local elections improving their 1982 score by more than 60 municipalties. The PS suffered a huge defeat as they were, like in 1985 October general election, punished for the government performance between 1983 and 1985. For the first the PCP dropped in number of municipalties won and the CDS started a long decline in local elections.

The 1989 elections:

First midterm local elections during Cavaco Silva governments. After winning the 1987 general elections by a landslide, Mr Cavaco Silva started a string of reforms in the economy and on the country as a whole. By 1989 many of his policies of privatizations and constitutional reforms were unpopular adding to this labor reforms in the public sector that created backlash particularly in the police force, which culminated in the "Secos e Molhados" (yet and dry) protests where police agents were against each other. As a result, the PSD was punished in the local elections. For the first time the PS won more municipalties than the PSD and made inroads in PSD country in the north and Center. The PS also regain control of the 2 main cities, Lisbon and Porto. In Lisbon, Jorge Sampaio, future President of the Republic (PR), defeated Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, current PR, by a 49% to 42% margin. The PCP made also gains in the south of the country while the CDS continued it's decline in local politics.

I will post the rest of the elections later. Enjoy

[Mike88]

The 1993 elections:

Second midterm local elections of Cavaco Silva's governments. Held in the middle of his 3rd term as PM, the strain of being 8 years in power was starting to show. The election was another victory for the PS which strengthen the position of the new leader of the party, and future PM, António Guterres.

The PS increased their margin from 6 to 11 municipalities compared to the PSD, although the PSD also gained a few municipalities from CDS. The PSD was, again, punished for their performance in government and many things contributed to it: In 1993 the country went to recession for the first time in 10 years, plus many resignations of ministers from the government and weariness by the PSD's long term in office eroded the governments popularity. The PS also increase their share of vote to 40% while the PSD, this time with no coalitions with the CDS, drooped to 33%.

The PCP continued to dominate the Alentejo area and the peninsula of Setúbal while the CDS continued their decline in local election that started in 1985. In this election the CDS only won 13 municipalties, a drop of 7 municipaltoes compared with 1989.

The 1997 election:

First midterm local election of António Guterres governments. In the first electoral test after the PS returned to power, the PS maintained the status of the largest local political force but only just. In what is called "the tie election", the PSD was viewed as the big winner of this local elections after evaporating almost completely the PS lead over them in the 1993 election. Almodôvar, municipality in Alentejo and Lisbon were crucial for the PS. In Almodôvar, where the incumbent PS mayor was being investigated for corruption, the PS held that municipality by only 10 votes and they were also able to hold on to Lisbon, even though by a much smaller margin than in 1993.

The PS minority government was therefore a bit punished and warned by the voters. Controversial dossiers like the regionalization of the country, abortion and fiscal policies in order to put Portugal in the european single currency created some discomfort in the electorate. The PSD, who was against regionalization and abortion, capitalized many of the electorate anxieties. These elections strengthen the position of the PSD leader at that time, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa - current PR - which was somewhat contested inside the party.

The PCP maintained their dominance in the Alentejo despite losing some cities to the PS like Loures and Vila Franca de Xira in the suburbs of Lisbon. The CDS achieved, in these elections, the lowest number of municipalties until that date by winning only 8 municipalities, another drop of 5 in comparison to 1993. The PPM (People's Monarchist Party) surprised many by winning one city in Viseu District.

I will post more later.

[Mike88]

The 2001 elections:

Second midterm local elections during António Guterres governments. These elections were a total car crash for the PS. After being 6 years in power without a majority and with an united opposition, the government almost came to a standstill. 2001 was a year when everything that could go wrong, went wrong. First is was the Hintze Ribeiro bridge disaster in March, which killed 59 people. The government was accused of negligence by families of the victims and by the opposition, prompting the minister of transportation, Jorge Coelho, to resign.

Then there was the slowdown of the economy adding the government's difficulties in passing budgets in Parliament which created situations out of this world. The PS's budgets between 1999 and 2001 were called "the limiano budgets", a famous cheese brand in Portugal. These budgets passed because the mayor of Ponte de Lima (CDS) wanted a cheese factory in his city and the government acceded to the request of the mayor, causing the mayor and MP to vote in favour of the budgets. Of course he was expelled from the CDS, but the budgets passed.

Despite all of this, polls still showed that the PS would hold on to the big cities of the country. But they were fantastically wrong. On election day, the government and the PS were punished for their performance in government and the PSD won by a landslide winning almost 160 municipalties, an increase of 32, while the PS fell to 113. The PS defeat was even worse because they lost all of the big cities: Lisbon, Porto, Coimbra, Sintra, Faro and Famalicão. In all of them polls showed the PS in the lead. Independent movements were allowed to run for the first time and won 3 cities. The PCP also suffered a huge defeat by reducing their influence in Setubal peninsula and in the Alentejo, as they fell to 28 cities in comparison with the 41 in 1997. The CDS went into full decline by winning only 3 cities, although in this election the PSD/CDS ran in coalitions in several cities, particularly the big ones. BE also elected their first mayor in Salvaterra de Magos.

Because of these worse than expected results for the PS, the Prime Minister António Guterres resigned on election night stating that he didn't want the country to fall into a "political swamp". An early election was called for March 2002, which was won by the PSD.

[Mike88]

The 2005 elections:

The 2005 local elections cannot be classified as midterm as they occurred only 8 months after the new PS majority government, led by PM José Sócrates, was sworn in. But the first actions and policies of the PS government were an issue in the campaign and were punished by the electorate.

In February 2005 the PS, led by José Sócrates, won a historic absolute majority. For the first time ever the Socialists could govern alone without any help. The Socialists ran a campaign on lower taxes, job creation and fiscal consolidation. But early on, the PS broke their electoral promise of lowering taxes and, therefore, after an emergency spring budget, taxes went up particularly VAT. The electorate didn't like this and the PS started falling in the polls. Adding to this, the disastrous handling of the summer wildfire crisis eroded even more trust in the government.

Polls were, again, quite wrong in this election. Like in 2001, polls predicted close races in the main cities, especially Lisbon and Porto. That wasn't accurate. On election day the PSD won again by a landslide losing just 1 municipality while the PS got an even worse result than in 2001 as they dropped from 113 to 109 municipalities. In Porto, Rui Rio was reelected with an absolute majority, shocking analysts who predicted a close race after Rio's clash with Pinto da Costa, president of Porto Football Club (FCP).

In Lisbon, the PSD also won by a landslide, although without a majority, while the PS had a poor showing at just 26%. The PSD maintain their dominance in the big cities across the country, although they lost Faro by a very close margin to the PS. PCP made a recovery winning 4 more cities than in 2001 by dominating almost completely the Setúbal peninsula. Independent movements also increase dramatically their scores winning 7 municipalities, an increase of 5. 3 of these independents were former PS and PSD mayors who were being investigated by corruption and who failed to win their party's support and ran as independents, they were: Valentim Loureiro in Gondomar (former PSD); Isaltino Morais in Oeiras (former PSD) and Fátima Felgueiras in Felgueiras (former PS).

The CDS achieved their lowest point ever, winning just 1 city, Ponte de Lima. Like in the 2001, the CDS celebrated many coalition with the PSD and also with MPT and PPM. The Left Bloc (BE) maintained their only municipality, Salvaterra de Magos.

[Zanas]

Fascinating, thanks a lot!

[mgop]

Why PS didn't have candidate at presidential election last year?

[Mike88]

Fascinating, thanks a lot!

Thanks!! I will post today the rest of the local election analysis.

Why PS didn't have candidate at presidential election last year?

In the beginning the PS was supposed to support Sampaio da Nóvoa. António Costa even appeared with him a couple of times before the general elections but everything changed after he was sworn in as PM. With the prospect of a Marcelo landslide, the PS decided to not throw any official support to any candidate although many PS MP's, ministers and members supported Nóvoa. But many PS voters voted for Marcelo instead, as this graphic shows:

[Mike88]

The 2009 elections:

Second local elections held during José Sócrates government. Like in 2005, these local elections were anything but midterm as they were held just 2 weeks after the PS reelection victory in September 2009. In these elections the PS achieved their best result til that date, winning 132 municipalities, an increase of 23. The PS candidates were definitely influenced by the victory of the PS in the general elections. The PSD maintained their status as the largest local political force in the country, but barrely. The PSD lost many cities, a total of 19, as was unable to retake Lisbon, lost in 2007 in a by-election won by António Costa, current PM.

The PSD maintained the big cities of Porto, Coimbra, Gaia, Sintra and were successful in taking back Faro by a very, very slim margin. The PS managed to hold on to Lisbon, and won it with an absolute majority. The PSD candidate, Pedro Santana Lopes - former mayor of Lisbon and PM - was unable to take back his old job as he lost the race by 44% to 39% margin. In the national popular vote, both parties were quite close and these local elections were one of the most bipolarized ever as the PSD won 39% of the vote and the PS 38%.

The PCP suffered quite an election blow as they achieved their worst results ever, winning 28 cities and a share of vote below 10%, 9.7%. Independents candidacies gained some share of vote but won the same number of municipalities, seven. The CDS won, once again 1 city, Ponte de Lima in the North. The BE maintained their bastion, Salvaterra de Magos.

For many mayors across the country, this would be their last election as the new term limits law would come in full effect in the next local elections in 2013.

The 2013 elections:

Midterm local elections held during Passos Coelho's government. These local elections were held during a very difficult economic situation, as Portugal was still coping with the effects of the European Debt crisis and with the bailout it had to ask in 2011. The government had become very unpopular, particularly after the 2012 September protests against the austerity policies of the PSD/CDS government. By the summer of 2013, the government suffered another crisis after the sudden resignation of the Finance minister Vitor Gaspar. His successor, Maria Luís Albuquerque, was not well received by the CDS and Mr. Paulo Portas resigned from the government creating a huge political crisis. For a while it was uncertain if the country was going to early election in 2014 or not, but ultimately the PSD/CDS came to an agreement and the crisis ended. But this crisis made severe damages in the country's image.

Also in this election, the new term limits regulations came into full effect, barring many incumbent and popular mayors to run for another term. The term limits and the political crisis were going to hit hard on the PSD and voters were ready to punish them. On election day the PS won by a landslide, winning 150 cities, an increase of 18. They were also able to win big cities across the country like Gaia, Sintra, Coimbra, Vila Real and Funchal - the last two, historic bastions of the PSD. But there were setbacks for the PS: they lost two historic bastions, Braga and Guarda to the PSD, plus Loures to CDU.

PSD suffered a huge defeat, their biggest ever in local elections, winning just 106 municipalities, a drop of 33. The electorate clearly punished their performance in government. The losses were most severe in the north and center of the country and particularly in the Madeira islands, the most orange place in Portugal. There the PSD lost 7 municipalities, winning just 4 in a island with 11 municipalities. The defeat in Madeira led the President of the Region, Alberto João Jardim to call for a leadership election in the PSD-Madeira and he also announced he would not seek an 11th term. The PCP made also many gains, increasing their score form 28 to 34 cities and by winning 11% of the vote. The CDS also made a marvelous recovery, ending their decline in local politics. In these elections, the CDS won 5 cities, 4 more than in 2009 and all at the expense of the PSD.

Independent movements made also big gains, increasing their score to 13 cities. The most notable was Rui Moreira, who won the city of Porto by a landslide. Left Bloc suffered a huge defeat as they lost their bastion in Salvaterra de Magos to the PS, and didn't made any gains across the country.

[Mike88]

The analysis of the past local elections is done. Hope you enjoyed it and understand the different trends and events that influenced the local elections in Portugal in the last 40 years. They can give us some hints on what can happen in the fall.

Now, the parties continue to finalize their candidacies for the local elections. The PS is reveling their candidates drop by drop but not very steady while the PSD has already many candidacies approved. And, rumours of the eminent "divorce" between the PSD and CDS may have been a bit exaggerated. The PSD and CDS have already celebrated a record of 99 coalitions, more than the 87 in 2013.

The PSD local elections coordinator, Carlos Carreiras, even said that the final number of PSD/CDS coalitions - some with other smaller parties like PPM and MPT - could reach 140, almost half of all municipalities in the country.

[Mike88]

Madeira Regional Parliament poll from Eurosondagem (requested by PS-Madeira):

38.0% 20-21 PSD
27.2% 14-15 PS
  8.6%        4 CDS
  6.9%        3 BE
  5.0%     2-3 CDU
  4.1%        2 JPP
  1.3%        0 PTP
  8.9%        0 Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 14 and 16 March. Polled 1,017 voters. MoE of 3.07%

Link. 

[Zanas]

The way I see it, PS should cut their losses at the CDU's (and BE's in votes) expense, because their government doesn't seem to be widely unpopular, and it seems PCP and BE are seen as just being in the way and not making anything really relevant. Expect CDU to fall to 20 or so, a historical low. PSD/CDS should gain a handful of municipalities, but probably nothing fancy and more of a return to the mean. There will probably a record Independent wins, but still not quite many of them.

Or I'm entirely mistaken. I swore to myself I wouldn't ever do predictions, but when you're a junkie...

[Mike88]

The way I see it, PS should cut their losses at the CDU's (and BE's in votes) expense, because their government doesn't seem to be widely unpopular, and it seems PCP and BE are seen as just being in the way and not making anything really relevant. Expect CDU to fall to 20 or so, a historical low. PSD/CDS should gain a handful of municipalities, but probably nothing fancy and more of a return to the mean. There will probably a record Independent wins, but still not quite many of them.

Or I'm entirely mistaken. I swore to myself I wouldn't ever do predictions, but when you're a junkie...

Thanks for you thoughts Zanas! Well, about CDU, i believe they will not have that bad results. I expect them to win at around 30. I believe this mainly because of the Galveias by-election in January:

Results of the local by-election in Galveias parish, Ponte de Sor, Portalegre.
(results compared with the 2013 local election)

CDU: 49.9 (+36.5) 5 (+4)
PS: 41.7 (-18.1) 4 (-3)
BE: 2.9 (-1.0)
Blank: 3.1 (+1.2)
Invalid: 2.4 (+1.0)

Turnout: 50.4 (-17.7)

Note: In 2013, the CDS won 1 seat. PSD and CDS did not contest this by-election.

Link:
http://www.dn.pt/portugal/interior/cdu-destrona-ps-e-vence-com-maioria-absoluta-eleicoes-intercalares-em-galveias-5607236.html

The PS got a 18% swing against them here and that vote went all to CDU. And although turnout was low, for a by-election it was quite high. And Galveias isn't a part of the "deep PCP" country of the center and south Alentejo. I expect the CDU to maintain their scores also because the PS has said that they will not contest fiercely many CDU municipalities only the big ones like Évora or Beja. A bad CDU result in the local election would send panic alerts in the PCP and they would realise that is better for them to not support the PS, but i do not expect that.

The PS, i expect they will maintain a big chunk of municipalities but they have to hold on to very close victories from 2013 in the North and Center of country. There were about 18 highly close races in these two regions with the PS winning 10 and the PSD 8. The PS, if it wants to maintain their 2013 score, needs to gain all of those 10 and pick up some from the PSD. The PS has to pay also attention to Braga district which is becoming more and more PSD country. Their loss in Braga city in 2013 was a shock and close victories of the PSD/CDS coalition in the 2015 elections in Fafe and Guimarães should worry the PS - the last time these two municipalities voted PSD was in 1991.

The PSD and PSD/CDS coalitions need to have a national strategy and forget the two main cities, Lisbon and Porto, which are a lost cause. They can retake many PS cities in the north, but they also have to defend many close victories from 2013, especially Oliveira de Azeméis, Paredes and Faro. I expect the PSD to have modest gains, but the bar is so low for the PSD right now that any gains will be seen as positive. Don't know why pundicts and critics are putting the bar so low for the PSD. It even seems that they are downplaying Mr. Passos Coelho chances to say latter that it wasn't that bad and he should stay on as leader.

Independents will certainly have more candidacies this year, mainly because of the "return of the dinosaurs" or "return of the jedis". Many former mayors from PSD and PS who were blocked for running in 2013 because of term limits are back again this year. But unfortunately for many they weren't well received by their respective parties and, as a result, many will run as independents against their own party's candidate. Let's see how this goes. The few polls out there show that voters think their time has pass.

Overall it's very difficult to preview elections in the fall when you are in March. In March 2015 no one would dare to say the PSD/CDS would win the elections and in the Azores elections last year, the bar was so low for the PSD and so high for the PS that the final results shocked many pundits. At the moment the trend is favourable for the PS to maintain their 2013 score but there's still more than 6 months to go.

[Mike88]

Update on the candidates already announced by the major parties and independent movements.
Here's the map:


In the next couple of weeks, probably more candidacies will be announced and i will make another update.

Right now, the candidacies already announced are:

PSD - 204 (166 PSD alone; 35 PSD/CDS; 2 PSD/CDS/PPM; 1 PSD/CDS/MPT/PPM)
PS - 117
CDU - 18
CDS - 28 (25 CDS alone; 3 CDS/PSD)
BE - 6
Independents - 11

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why is Madeira so rightist?

[Mike88]

Why is Madeira so rightist?

Both Madeira and Azores are very conservative areas. In Azores, the PSD went to a down spiral because their historic leader, Mota Amaral, decided to be a national MP rather than President of the region. If he continued as president, the Azores could still be a strong area of the PSD.

But the Madeira case. The Madeira islands were very, very poor before the 1974 revolution. They were actually one of the poorest regions of the country, with electricity being a luxury to many people in the islands. Because of this, many Madeirenses fled the island and immigrated to Venezuela. Nonetheless, Madeira was a very agricultural island with high rates of propriety owners. After the revolution, the Constitution established the creation of Autonomous regions and, therefore, Madeira and Azores became regions with governments of their own. Because they were much more underdeveloped from the rest of the country, it was imperative that these two regions had more tools to combat this inequality.

The PSD emerged as the party of the autonomy's. Because Madeira was very conservative, with strong links to the Catholic Church and a strong rate of propriety owner, the PSD attracted the vast majority of voters. The PSD won the first election in 1976 and from 1978 to 2015, the islands were governed by the PSD-Madeira historic leader Alberto João Jardim. Under his leadership, Madeira was completely transformed. Huge investments in infrastructures, tourism, the economy and the creation of offshore base, improved dramatically the living conditions of the region thus becoming, today, the second richest region in the country.

Mr. Jardim was like a god to the people of Madeira, and the PSD benefited from this. The PS never really contested Madeira. His 36 years as President ended, although, in not a very happy way. The 2011 crisis revealed the island borrowed a lot of money and the bill had to be paid. Nonetheless, the PSD continues to lead the public opinion polls in Madeira.

[Mike88]

The PM meet today with the party leaders of PSD, CDS, PAN and PEV to mark the local elections date. After meeting with the parties, and the PM will still meet with PS, BE and PCP on Wednesday, the government registered a consensus around October 1st.

According to the article, the date will be known on Thursday after the Cabinet meeting. I think this is the first time an election date is called well in advance, precisely 6 months.

[Mike88]

Newspapers say it's basically official. The 2017 local election will be held on October 1st 2017 as the PS will communicate to the PM that they also think this is the most suitable date.

Also, today, the government has been meeting with party leaders about the sell of Novo Banco, former BES. Until the moment, the government has met with PSD, PCP and BE to communicate that the bank will be sold to Lone Star funds and that the State will have a 25% share of the bank without no vote or administrators.

But the PSD says it will not support the governments decision as they say Mr. Costa has a majority in Parliament and also the government didn't asked for their support. But that majority doesn't exist. The PCP and BE have already said they are against and will do everything in their power in Parliament to stop the sell of the bank.

Not a very good situation. Let's see how it unfolds.

[Mike88]

Upset Mark Rutte called António Costa about his remarks on Dijsselbloem.

According to Expresso newspaper, the PM of Netherlands, Mark Rutte, called Mr. António Costa about his remarks on Jeroen Dijsselbloem quote that the south European countries spend all their money in booze and women. As a response, Mr. Costa said that Dijsselbloem is dangerous, a racist, a sexist and should "disappear". Rutte didn't like what his portuguese counterpart said and asked for explanations but Mr. Costa didn't retract a single word.

What Dijsselbloem said was stupid but what Costa said was even more stupid.

[Zanas]

What Dijsselbloem said was stupid but what Costa said was even more stupid.

Surely not? Ok, Costa overreacted, it's not very diplomatical from a PM, but he's clearly right. Dijsselbloem should indeed disappear from politics and his like with him.

[DavidB.]

Thanks so much for your posts on the historical background of the local elections, Mike! Because of the Dutch election I haven't had time for them yet, but they look incredibly solid and I'm looking forward to taking the time to read them.

Dijsselbloem should have been more careful in his wording and has caused way too many of these incidents already (though only internationally -- I don't think he has ever made any gaffes here). A shame, because he is a capable minister, which is what he should be judged on. I understand he is an easy target for angry people from Southern Europe now, but it is not as if austerity would not be a thing without Dijsselbloem. Anyway, he will be irrelevant (#3 MP of the seventh largest party...) as soon as a new government is formed here, which may take a while.

[Mike88]

Some policies updates:

The PSD-Lisbon announced today that they will abolish the civil protection tax if they win the local elections in Lisbon. The tax, somewhat unpopular in the city of Lisbon, serves to finance civil protection services. At the same time, the ombudsman has doubts about the tax as he feels it may be unconstitutional and has sent it to the Constitutional court.

Also, CDS-PP wants to strip Portuguese nationality to those who are convicted of acts of terrorism.

And the Novo Banco (former BES) sell is creating frictions between the PS and PCP/BE. The deal to sell the bank is still in negotiations but the first informations point that the bank will pretty much be sold by "zero" to Lone Star funds. The BE and PCP don't like what they are seeing and are urging the government to show the real figures of the deal.