Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Poll for Soure municipality, Coimbra District (PS Incumbent)

Poll results, Seats projected, Party/coalition, (2013 results)

48.2% 4 seats PS (39.3%)
33.9% 2 - 3 seats PSD/CDS (37.0%)
10.8% 0 - 1 seats CDU (9.9%)
  7.1% 0 seats Others (13.8%)

Conducted on 1 and 3 February. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE : 2,99%

[Mike88]

Update on the political scene:

The Caixagate continues. Today, the speaker of Parliament, Ferro Rodrigues, accepted the proposed new enquiry committee to investigate the emails and text messages between Mr Centeno and Mr Domingues with, at the same, trying to understand how much the government was involved in the controversy. This happens in the middle of a deterioration of the relationship between the Speaker and the PSD/CDS. Both parties have been very critical of the speaker and even accuse him "restricting the rights" of the opposition.

At the same time, a new controversy is born. This one involves offshores and the Treasury's inefficiency in controlling the money that leaves Portugal. The controversy is about money that left the country, between 2011 and 2014, to offshores or tax heavens which sums up to around 10 billion euros. The PS accuses the PSD of closing their eyes, but Mr Passos Coelho has stated he wants this investigated to the very end. A new enquiry committee to investigate this has already been created and, next week both the former and current Treasury secretaries will testify.

And also, the "geringonça" is featured on Politico.
The article says that the way the PS/BE/CDU coalition works could be a role model to Europe's Socialists but it could only be a dream. The way the coalition was formed after the election is not a very inspiring one and many of the policies the "geringonça" made to control the deficit have been even more austere than the PSD/CDS policies, particularly in regard to public investment.

[Mike88]

António Costa: "Labor reform will not be overruled"

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The PM said in the Portuguese business confederation conference that the current labor law, policy developed by the PSD/CDS and fiercely attacked by the leftwing parties, will not be changed. In January the PM had already said, in private, to employers associations that the law would not be changed.

It will be interesting to see how the PCP and BE react to this decision. They have stated that one of their main goals this year was to overturn the PSD/CDS labor laws.

[Mike88]

On the offshore controversy, the former treasury secretary, Paulo Núncio (CDS) acknowledge he is to blame for not sending the offshore numbers to the statistical bureau of the finance ministry. The PS has already accused the PSD/CDS government of negligence but this controversy is very blur and pundits suggest this controversy is a response of the PS to the PSD/CDS attacks to the finance minister.

Also, Diario de Noticias newspaper is reporting that government officials send emails and make phone calls without any security. The report goes on to say that ministers and secretaries refuse to communicate in softwares that encrypt communications. The report ends comparing this with Hillary Clinton's email scandal and how it led to her defeat.

[Mike88]

The Interior minister published the official map of registered voters for the fall local elections.
For the local elections, 9.387.932 people are registered to vote and comparing with the 2013 local elections, there is a decline of around 113.000 voters and 41.000 comparing with the 2015 general elections . In the next few weeks, the electoral commission will allocate, based on the number of registered voters, the councillors, municipal members and parish members to elect.

The election date will only be announced in early or mid June.

[Mike88]

The "offshoregate" has officially become the Left's response to the PSD/CDS attacks on the government handling of the Caixa recapitalization negotiations.

Today, the former Treasury secretary, Paulo Núncio (CDS), responded to MP's question on why he didn't published the data related to money deposited in offshores. He took responsibility for any wrongdoing in this affair, although last week he stated it was the Treasury workers fault, but the PS/BE/CDU are spinning this to a discussion about the offshores itself and that the PSD/CDS is in the pocket of big companies that use offshore accounts.

The PS has already asked for the two former ministers of the PSD/CDS government to be called to go to Parliament and give explanations. All of this happens days before the 2nd Caixagate enquiry committee begins. This committee will investigate the government role in the negotiations with the former bank administration and will, with high probability, disclose the emais and text messages between Mr Centeno and Mr Domingues.
Newspapers are also reporting that Mr Centeno is fed up with all of this and the PS fears he will resign after Portugal exits the excessive deficit procedure.

The next few weeks will be a bumpy ride...

----

Also about the local elections:

The PS will renominate the current mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca, who faces charges of corruption which can led to his removal from office.

[Mike88]

Another update on the fall local elections:

Bernardino Soares (CDU), mayor of Loures (Lisbon suburb with more 200.000 inhabitants), announced he will run for a second term.



He surprised many people in 2013 by forming a coalition with the PSD in Loures city hall.

[VPH]

Another update on the fall local elections:

Bernardino Soares (CDU), mayor of Loures (Lisbon suburb with more 200.000 inhabitants), announced he will run for a second term.



He surprised many people in 2013 by forming a coalition with the PSD in Loures city hall.

How did that work out!? Wow!

[Mike88]

How did that work out!? Wow!

Quite well, i believe. The political dynamics in Loures are very different from rest of the country. Loures is a very leftwing municipality and the local political fights are normally between the PS and CDU so the PSD, which gathers around 16% of the vote, can act as the kingmaker.

[Mike88]

March is shaping to be another hot month in politics:

The Caixagate continues with the proceedings for the new committee approved. The Left made a "U turn" and decided to approve the release of the emails between Mr Centeno and Mr Domingues, decision the PSD/CDS hailed. But this good mood only lasted a few minutes, because PS/BE/CDU stated that those emails can only be seen and not used in the works of the committee. The PSD is already accusing the PS of making fun of Parliament.

The offshoregate continues also in the news, although it has faded a bit. Now the focus is not if there is any money to be taxed, the Treasury has until 2024 to tax any money, but rather where did the money came from, and, according to reports, more than half of the 10 billions came from the former Banco Espirito Santo (BES).

Plus, the words of Teodora Cardoso, president of the Public Finances council, about the deficit are creating harsh reactions from the Left. Ms Cardoso said that to a "certain extent, there was a miracle" in the deficit reduction in 2016, citting temporary and unsustainable measures. These words were received very badly particularly in the PCP, where MP Miguel Tiago said that the miracle is that Ms. Cardoso still has a job.

In terms of policies, the PSD wants to create a "black list" of companies that discriminate against women on the basis of wage pay.

And, the new statute of animals was published today. As of May 1st, animals will stop being labeled as things and will be labeled as living beings with sensibility. There will also be penalties for who kills or mugs animals.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Fwiw "mug" as a verb in English normally means to rob someone in public. So you may want a different verb, like 'maim', unless in Portugal all dogs are sporting rolexes and iPhones.

I'm guessing it was an initiative of PAN? What are they like?

[Mike88]

Fwiw "mug" as a verb in English normally means to rob someone in public. So you may want a different verb, like 'maim', unless in Portugal all dogs are sporting rolexes and iPhones.

I'm guessing it was an initiative of PAN? What are they like?

Yes, i meant to say something about harming animals but, out of curiosity, the new legislation states that who is found guilty of stealing an animal can be punished with a maximum of 3 years in jail.

This legislation was a joint draft law presented by the PS, PSD, PAN and BE and approved in parliament by unanimity.

PAN is a somewhat recent party but who was achieved very good election results since 2011. They were founded in 2009 and for a period of time they were led  by Paulo Borges, a know poet and Buddhist.



They defend animals rights, ecologism and pacifism. Plus they label themselves as center left and in between the PS and PSD. They are very similar with the Dutch Party for the Animals.

[Mike88]

One more reason March will be a hot month in politics:

Newspapers are reporting today that the attorney general, Joana Marques Vidal, wants an accusation for the former PM José Sócrates ready by March 17 and will not accept any more delays.

This case called "Operation Marquis", investigates the money schemes of the former socialist PM José Sócrates and in the last few weeks many high profile personalities in the finance and business industry in Portugal like Ricardo Salgado (former BES CEO), Zeinal Bava and Henrique Granadeiro (former leaders of Portugal Telecom), were accused of being involved in ruinous businesses with Mr Sócrates while he was Prime Minister.

An accusation will have, without a doubt, a major political impact in the whole system. This operation is already one of the biggest in the history of Portuguese justice, in the extent that the investigation already has more than 10 000 pages!!

[Mike88]

The PS approved motions in favour of the legalization of euthanasia, prostitution and soft drugs.



In the party's national committee, held yesterday in Oporto, the 251 members approved the party's official stand on euthanasia, they also approved the regulation of prostitution, which they note it's a question of dignity, and finally the legalization and production of cannabis in Portugal

On the other side, the PSD held yesterday a women's rally in Aveiro district to commemorate Women's day.



In the rally, Mr Passos Coelho criticized the Left parties response to Ms Cardoso, president of public finances commission, statements about the 2016 deficit and also accused the Left majority of lack of democratic culture.

[Mike88]

The "geringonça", PS/BE/CDU coalition, will be studied in Harvard University.

Ohh Harvard... What have you become?

[Mike88]

Conference about Trump, Brexit and Le Pen cancelled in the Social and Human Sciences University of Lisbon.

The conference "Populism or Democracy: Trump, Brexit and Le Pen" with keynote speaker Jaime Nogueira Pinto, husband of late CDS-PP MP Maria José Nogueira Pinto and leading historian about the Salazar dictatorship, was cancelled after Mr Nogueira Pinto suffered threats to his safety and his physical integrity.

The decision of cancelling the conference was taken also after the student's association of that university presented a motion labelling this conference as an event associated with "colonialist, racist and xenophobic arguments".

[Mike88]

The crazy local elections campaign has started...

The candidate for the PSD/CDS in Torres Vedras has put up campaign posters.... in Lisbon, 50 kms (31 miles) from Torres Vedras.

Mauro Claudino, the PSD/CDS candidate, explains the weird move because 1 in 4 people in Torres Vedras don't find jobs there and have to go every day to Lisbon. Torres Vedras has been ruled by the PS since 1976 and, curiously, the current mayor, Carlos Bernardes (PS), is being investigated for plagiarism in his doctoral thesis.

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa celebrated today his first year as President with visits to his former high school and by selling a homeless supporting magazine called Cais in the streets of Lisbon.

Here he is selling the magazines:


Pundits have also been analysing the first year of Marcelo's presidency. All of them agree that Marcelo is able to be much more closer to the people than his predecessor and that this is very well received by the electorate. Expresso newspaper even compares him to Princess Diana!!

While others point that too much exposure by the President may trivialize the presidency and his image.

Newspapers actually used this hyperactivity of the President for the headlines, like Jornal i:


Where isn't Marcelo? asks the newspaper.

[Mike88]

March poll from Eurosondagem. No big changes between the main parties. Nonetheless, big increase of PAN (+0.7%).



Popularity ratings:


Poll conducted between 1 and 8 March. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

Link: http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-03-10-Sondagem-PS-alarga-vantagem-sobre-PSD-Marcelo-em-alta

Seat projections:

103 (+17) PS
  81   ( -8) PSD
  18   ( -1) BE
  16   ( -1) CDU
  11   ( -7) CDS
    1   ( = ) PAN

If PSD/CDS ran in a coalition:

 98 (+12) PS
 98   ( -9) PSD/CDS
 17   ( -2) BE
 16   ( -1) CDU
   1   ( = ) PAN

[Mike88]

March poll from Aximage. Like Eurosondagem, no major changes.
(graphics made by me)



Conducted between 4 and 6 March. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.00%

Link: http://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/portugueses-perdem-confianca-em-costa-para-primeiro-ministro?ref=HP_Grupo1

[Mike88]

Expresso newspaper: Former Socialist PM José Sócrates will be indicted next Friday.

Expresso newspaper and SIC Notícias are reporting that the investigation about the former PM money schemes is near the end and that Mr. Sócrates will be interrogated by the police, for the last time, next monday.

According to the newspaper, the former PM will be accused of being corrupted by 23 million euros and that the attorney general has "solid evidences" of this and are wrapping up the indictment.

[Mike88]

Ok guys, update.

Every month, i will publish a poll of polls of the voting intentions of the Portuguese electorate to the Assembly of the Republic. I will post the results of the poll average from this page. They weight polls by how recent they are and by the number of people polled. It has also a seat calculator if anyone is interested.



Poll of Polls March 2017:


Some observations:

The PS is, at the moment, polling very strong and leading by double digits the PSD (11.7%). The PSD stands at 28% and adding the CDS at 6.5%, the conservative coalition stands at around 35%. They won 38.6% in 2015. Both BE and CDU are losing voters and MP's to PS while PAN continues to poll quite strongly for a 6th party.
Also if the PSD/CDS were still a coalition they would elect 93 MP's; the PS 105; BE 17; CDU 14 and PAN 1.

Enjoy!

[windjammer]

Ok guys, update.

Every month, i will publish a poll of polls of the voting intentions of the Portuguese electorate to the Assembly of the Republic. I will post the results of the poll average from this page. They weight polls by how recent they are and by the number of people polled. It has also a seat calculator if anyone is interested.



Poll of Polls March 2017:


Some observations:

The PS is, at the moment, polling very strong and leading by double digits the PSD (11.7%). The PSD stands at 28% and adding the CDS at 6.5%, the conservative coalition stands at around 35%. They won 38.6% in 2015. Both BE and CDU are losing voters and MP's to PS while PAN continues to poll quite strongly for a 6th party.
Also if the PSD/CDS were still a coalition they would elect 93 MP's; the PS 105; BE 17; CDU 14 and PAN 1.

Enjoy!

Looks great, thank you

[Mike88]

President of PS-Guarda threatens Health Minister if he doesn't put PS members in the board of the local hospital. LOOOOOL!!

The president of the PS Federation from the District of Guarda has threatened to withdraw his political trust in the Health minister, Adalberto Campos Fernandes, if he doesn't nominate "boys", or in other words, PS members to the board of the Hospital of Guarda. In an email sent to the minister, António Saraiva, president of the PS-Guarda, said he cannot agree with the format of the new board of the Hospital.

According to Observador newspaper, the minister nominated a women who is not a member of the PS. In the email, he also says it's unfair that the board still has people nominated by the PSD. The PS-Guarda is very uncomfortable with this, with members labelling this as ridiculous and some members of the party are asking for the head Mr. António Saraiva.

You can't make this stuff up....

[Mike88]

Update on the political scene:

The imminent indictment of former PM José Sócrates was, once again, delayed. This time, investigators asked the attorney general another two months to complete the accusation against the former PM. The previous deadline imposed by the AG was tomorrow, March 17.

On the local elections, the deadline to present candidacies is just a few weeks ahead and parties are rushing to name the final candidates. The PSD will announce in the next few days the candidate for Lisbon. Pedro Passos Coelho said, today, he has a name and it is a "good choice". Media is saying the name chosen is Teresa Leal Coelho, MP close to Mr Passos Coelho and nº2 in the PSD list in the 2013 local elections in Lisbon.



Also, Assusnção Cristas, CDS leader, is in a bad spot in the last few days after a very controversial interview she gave to Público newspaper. In the interview Ms. Cristas said he approved the BES bank resolution without reading it and that the banking system wasn't too much discussed in cabinet during Mr. Passos Coelho government. Of course these statements raise eyebrows and there's some discomfort in the CDS and PSD and some shock in the PS/BE/CDU.

Finally, former President Jorge Sampaio is going to present his memoirs in the coming days and in the book he talks about one of his most controversial decisions as President, the 2004 dissolution of Parliament. Mr Sampaio says he isn't sorry for nominating Mr Santana Lopes as PM and for exonerating him 6 months later and that he would do that all over again. But says, he became fed up with Santana Lopes for putting the country at adrift.

Santana Lopes didn't wait too much to respond and has challenge the former President for a debate and stated that he has doubts of the former President's morals and scruples.