Fox News: Trump +1/Clinton +1 in 4 way
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  Fox News: Trump +1/Clinton +1 in 4 way
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Author Topic: Fox News: Trump +1/Clinton +1 in 4 way  (Read 1707 times)
Vosem
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« Reply #25 on: September 15, 2016, 07:11:26 PM »

It's official...

At this point we're looking a race which is a virtual tossup.

Trump has consolidated the Republican base, which has been the major driver in his recent performance in both national and state polls.

Clinton has lost support to 3rd Party candidates and undecideds/persuadables...

Her strategy over the past four weeks of trying to hammer Trump as an extremist, and try to pander to Republican voters that don't like Trump has been an epic failure.

Time to go back to the "Battle of the Bases" and actually run on her 2016 Primary policies, instead of taking the Progressive base of the Party for granted.

It is almost too late for Clinton, considering that pledging and adopting extremely progressive policies in order to defeat Bernie in the primaries, was then followed by a pivot that has done very little to back up her talk. Ultimately, among many voters she is reinforcing the narrative that she is just another Politician who will say and do anything to get elected, but at the end of the day you can't trust to follow through.

It's amazing that she basically ignored key issues for the largest generation (Millennials) in order to try to increase Trump's already huge unfavorables. She should have been building her own favorables in August, and acting consistent and not basically taking one of the largest voting blocs for granted solely based upon "Trump is.... (fill in the blanks) which most of that generation already believes to be the case.



Er, no. That's total horsesh**t. Trump has not consolidated the Republican base by any means; he's still polling in the 60s among self-described conservatives. Hillary is at 75-80 with self-described liberals. The swings in this race -- all the swings in this race -- have been between Hillary Clinton and undecided/third-party. Trump has never really been higher than 41% or so, and in fact is usually under 40. Some of the people voting third-party are in fact Stein-voting progressives, but the majority of Johnson voters and undecideds are vague centrists without much of an ideology at all who can't stand Trump but are uncertain of whether they can bring themselves to vote for Hillary. Many are likely to end up not voting at all.

Fair enough.... so I'm assuming the horses**t refers to the argument that both candidates have consolidated their respective bases?

I'm not exactly sure what your sources are regarding the base consolidation regarding Clinton/Trump... I'm assuming these are national polls, since we have seen state poll after state poll in the past month showing Trump consolidating Republican support. Meanwhile, we have seen Clinton's numbers drop in similar state polls regarding the Democratic base support.

I suspect we are basically in agreement on the fundamental points, but disagree on some of the details?

I guess I phrased that a little intolerantly, since I hear this suggestion (that Hillary should go left to convince undecideds and third-party voters to vote for her) pretty frequently and it doesn't make sense to me, for the reasons I described in my post; these tend not to be overwhelmingly left-wing people, and the campaign strategy she's been pursuing (of trying to be a moderate consensus candidate) probably is the best way to persuade them to come over.

I've been looking at national polls that ask voters to self-identify ideology, rather than partisanship -- ideology tends to be a great deal less fluid. I might be upset with the Republican Party, but I won't stop being a conservative; I'm sure if you were upset with the Democratic Party, you wouldn't cease to be a progressive. So, when I see that Trump only has 2/3 of conservatives when Romney got many more, I can see that the Republican base has coalesced around him nowhere near as strongly as it did around prior nominees. Hillary is doing worse than usual too but not anywhere near as dramatically. But base consolidation wasn't really the point of my post.
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« Reply #26 on: September 15, 2016, 07:16:25 PM »

What are we missing from the major polls right now, just the real NBC/WSJ/Hart Research Poll?

Johnson is obviously not getting 15%.

CNN/ORC was last week. ABC/WaPo earlier in the week and CBS/NYT this morning and now Fox. NBC/Survey Monkey doesn't count, I don't think.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #27 on: September 15, 2016, 07:17:25 PM »

It's official...

At this point we're looking a race which is a virtual tossup.

Trump has consolidated the Republican base, which has been the major driver in his recent performance in both national and state polls.

Clinton has lost support to 3rd Party candidates and undecideds/persuadables...

Her strategy over the past four weeks of trying to hammer Trump as an extremist, and try to pander to Republican voters that don't like Trump has been an epic failure.

Time to go back to the "Battle of the Bases" and actually run on her 2016 Primary policies, instead of taking the Progressive base of the Party for granted.

It is almost too late for Clinton, considering that pledging and adopting extremely progressive policies in order to defeat Bernie in the primaries, was then followed by a pivot that has done very little to back up her talk. Ultimately, among many voters she is reinforcing the narrative that she is just another Politician who will say and do anything to get elected, but at the end of the day you can't trust to follow through.

It's amazing that she basically ignored key issues for the largest generation (Millennials) in order to try to increase Trump's already huge unfavorables. She should have been building her own favorables in August, and acting consistent and not basically taking one of the largest voting blocs for granted solely based upon "Trump is.... (fill in the blanks) which most of that generation already believes to be the case.



Er, no. That's total horsesh**t. Trump has not consolidated the Republican base by any means; he's still polling in the 60s among self-described conservatives. Hillary is at 75-80 with self-described liberals. The swings in this race -- all the swings in this race -- have been between Hillary Clinton and undecided/third-party. Trump has never really been higher than 41% or so, and in fact is usually under 40. Some of the people voting third-party are in fact Stein-voting progressives, but the majority of Johnson voters and undecideds are vague centrists without much of an ideology at all who can't stand Trump but are uncertain of whether they can bring themselves to vote for Hillary. Many are likely to end up not voting at all.

Lord, I'm agreeing with Vosem.

This week has hurt Clinton with Dem enthusiasm. We need to wait, given the circumstances, if this this is a circumstantial hit, which will right itself, or a substantive hit, which suggests a new dynamic.

Hillary is, yes, being hurt by her weaker position with Millennials, BUT her position was being bolstered by her standing with moderate college-educated whites.  Her path to the White House isn't going to be done solely by pandering the most Progressive, because moderates are the key to the White House.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #28 on: September 15, 2016, 07:23:35 PM »

in my opinion, if big democratic voices would say in the public that the race is a toss-up or at least much closer than thought (like obama), it would energize the base more than the out-dated "we got this"-attitude.

screaming that ARMAGEDDON IS COMING could help.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #29 on: September 15, 2016, 07:34:15 PM »

It's official...

At this point we're looking a race which is a virtual tossup.

Trump has consolidated the Republican base, which has been the major driver in his recent performance in both national and state polls.

Clinton has lost support to 3rd Party candidates and undecideds/persuadables...

Her strategy over the past four weeks of trying to hammer Trump as an extremist, and try to pander to Republican voters that don't like Trump has been an epic failure.

Time to go back to the "Battle of the Bases" and actually run on her 2016 Primary policies, instead of taking the Progressive base of the Party for granted.

It is almost too late for Clinton, considering that pledging and adopting extremely progressive policies in order to defeat Bernie in the primaries, was then followed by a pivot that has done very little to back up her talk. Ultimately, among many voters she is reinforcing the narrative that she is just another Politician who will say and do anything to get elected, but at the end of the day you can't trust to follow through.

It's amazing that she basically ignored key issues for the largest generation (Millennials) in order to try to increase Trump's already huge unfavorables. She should have been building her own favorables in August, and acting consistent and not basically taking one of the largest voting blocs for granted solely based upon "Trump is.... (fill in the blanks) which most of that generation already believes to be the case.



Er, no. That's total horsesh**t. Trump has not consolidated the Republican base by any means; he's still polling in the 60s among self-described conservatives. Hillary is at 75-80 with self-described liberals. The swings in this race -- all the swings in this race -- have been between Hillary Clinton and undecided/third-party. Trump has never really been higher than 41% or so, and in fact is usually under 40. Some of the people voting third-party are in fact Stein-voting progressives, but the majority of Johnson voters and undecideds are vague centrists without much of an ideology at all who can't stand Trump but are uncertain of whether they can bring themselves to vote for Hillary. Many are likely to end up not voting at all.

Lord, I'm agreeing with Vosem.

This week has hurt Clinton with Dem enthusiasm. We need to wait, given the circumstances, if this this is a circumstantial hit, which will right itself, or a substantive hit, which suggests a new dynamic.

Hillary is, yes, being hurt by her weaker position with Millennials, BUT her position was being bolstered by her standing with moderate college-educated whites.  Her path to the White House isn't going to be done solely by pandering the most Progressive, because moderates are the key to the White House.

Maybe both of y'all are right, and I hope that is the case.

That being said, some of her negative personal attributes are tied to issues like "honest and trustworthy", and basically sitting out August waiting for Trump to hang himself with gaffes appears to have been a major strategic mistake. Additionally, Clinton has basically taken Millennial voters for granted, and not even pushed hard on her platform of increasing the minimum wage to $12/Hour, which actually is a position supported by even a majority of Republicans....
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #30 on: September 15, 2016, 07:44:15 PM »

trump has shared enough gaffes to kill 12 candidates.

the question at this point is, if the average voter cares at all about borderlince racism, incoherence and name-calling.

there will be hundreds of kind interesting social-psychologic studies about this topic which will conclude that either the economy still..well...trumps all other faults or that calling someone a sexist/racist is today seen as a worse crime than actually being sexist/racist.
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Kempros
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« Reply #31 on: September 15, 2016, 11:27:13 PM »

How quick the polls fluctuated this time, means it can change rapidly both ways in a volitile political environment as such.
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Shadows
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« Reply #32 on: September 16, 2016, 02:09:11 AM »

This is interessting

I thing among RV it was -
Clinton - 32, Trump 30 odd

& among LV
Clinton - 31, Trump 36

Clinton is falling while Trump is surging. Trump is firing up the Independent turnout while Clinton is obviously struggling to get them to polls. Trump has traction among blue collar independents non-college educated whites many of whom were traditional Democrats!

Going after the other party is ridiculous as none of them are getting over 5-6% of the other party's voters!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #33 on: September 16, 2016, 06:51:26 AM »

Lord, I'm agreeing with Vosem.

This week has hurt Clinton with Dem enthusiasm. We need to wait, given the circumstances, if this this is a circumstantial hit, which will right itself, or a substantive hit, which suggests a new dynamic.

Hillary is, yes, being hurt by her weaker position with Millennials, BUT her position was being bolstered by her standing with moderate college-educated whites.  Her path to the White House isn't going to be done solely by pandering the most Progressive, because moderates are the key to the White House.
I suppose you are referring to her pneumonia/deplorable events?

If it is what you meant, it is not completely true, we saw it BEFORE those events in at least three latest A  top-10 pollsters (before the events), namely:
ABC/WaPo, from    SEP. 5-8
CNN, from    SEP. 1-4
and IBD/TIPP from    AUG. 26-SEP. 1

A lot of Dems/Reps seem to think that state polls prove that the the shift in the race occurred almost solely during this week. It is not true, we didn't have many good states polls last 3-4 weeks, and they just happened to come this week. So they includes both this and former weeks shifts.
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