Red Oak Strategic: Clinton +5 (7 point swing away from Trump in 2 weeks)

[HillOfANight]

https://s3.amazonaws.com/redoakstrategic-gcs/RedOakStrategic_NationalGCSSurvey_Oct32016.pdf
https://twitter.com/markjstephenson/status/782913938576986117
https://twitter.com/markjstephenson/status/782908528138735617

Clinton 36 (33)
Trump 31 (35)
Johnson 10 [8]
Stein 2 (0)
Undecided 21 (24)

Among those with a candidate (ignoring undecided)

Clinton 46 (43)
Trump 40 (46)
Johnson 12 (11)
Stein 2 (0)

[mark_twain]

These results look pretty valid, in relation to previous polls by this group.

Great showing for Clinton!

[JA]

So the pre-debate poll showed Trump +2.7% and this post-debate poll shows Clinton +5.6%, which is an 8.3% swing towards Clinton. This, in conjunction with today's Morning Consult poll, has me feeling pretty good today about the current state of the race. But, it's not over until it's over, so Clinton supporters better not dare become complacent or celebrate too early. Considering the enormous threat that is Trump, we shouldn't take a single sigh of relief until she officially reaches 270 electoral votes on election night.

[Iosif]

It's actually Clinton +6.

[HillOfANight]

Even though I'm in a Georgia, going to try as hard as I can to register my parents/family and get them to vote

[Gustaf]

Even though I'm in a Georgia, going to try as hard as I can to register my parents/family and get them to vote

I mean, Georgia going Democrat is definitely a distinct possibility in this race. 2% chance of tipping the election according to 538!

[mark_twain]

I think we can safely say that Georgia will be competitive this election.

Despite this state being labeled as a "red state" (in the usual coloring scheme), I have not seen any Trump bumper stickers where I live, but I have seen Clinton bumper stickers.

It would be great if Clinton is able to win this state, though I'll be just as happy with a Clinton victory one way or another.

[Seriously?]

Red Oak uses Google Consumer Surveys, which has its own set of problems with geolocation and the like (and high undecideds), but this is definitely good news for the Clinton camp.

[ProudModerate2]

Very nice.

[Mallow]

It's actually Clinton +6.

[HillOfANight]

It's actually Clinton +6.

Most polls break out undecided or don't know. 36 (rounded) - 31 = 5. I rounded since people throw a fuss when they see a poll with decimals.

[Mallow]

It's actually Clinton +6.

Most polls break out undecided or don't know. 36 (rounded) - 31 = 5. I rounded since people throw a fuss when they see a poll with decimals.

Sorry, actually this is my fault. I was looking at the numbers without undecideds.