GA-Opinion Savvy: Trump +4

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/Opinion_Savvy/status/776486657616932864
http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/09/15/poll-trump-pulls-ahead-in-ga/
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/OS-GA-General-9.15.16.pdf
Trump - 46% (43)
Clinton - 42% (43)
Johnson - 10% (11)

Clinton does better among 30-44 (53-30) than she does 18-29 (44-30).

Among whites, she has 26 to 58, a gap of only 32! Obama generally trailed by 50, and most polls had her -40....

Trump leads by getting 22% of the black vote.

[HillOfANight]

Someone send Obama to GA!

He's not really liked there

?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/georgia-obama-job-approval
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08/07/ajc-poll-barack-obamas-surprisingly-high-approval-rating-in-georgia/

Poll after poll has shown his approval to be surprisingly high, relative to the fact that this is a red state. He's not after the deplorables, he would be here for the base that does approve.

[HillOfANight]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/GAPolls/GA160906/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Georgia_Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables%20of%20Adults%20and%20Registered%20Voters_September%202016.pdf#page=2
He got 3% in NBC Marist, and 2% in CBS YouGov.
https://www.scribd.com/document/321143715/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-Georgia-August-14-2016#from_embed

[HillOfANight]

If Georgia is within 5, NC and FL are probably blue. Of course none of the polls in this state right now exactly make sense.

Georgia has always had Democrats polling better than they do.  Remember there's also 3 people running so some of the states might be a little closer than normal.

Stop with this lie. 2014 showed a close race in the summer that closed toward Perdue after she got barraged with ads tieing her to Obama.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_romney_vs_obama-2150.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ga/georgia_mccain_vs_obama-596.html

2008 RCP final was McCain +4, ended up McCain +5.2. The September polls were McCain +13,18,16,11,8,8,6,7, and it ended up much closer.

2012 RCP Final was Romney +10, and he actually ended up with 7.8. The only September poll at the time had Romney +21.