NV-Monmouth: Trump +2

[Gass3268]

Regardless of the result, good to see that they know that Stein isn't on the ballot here. Should also add a "none of the above option", but I regress.

[Skye]

I'll laugh if Trump wins NV.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

THANK YOU WEIRD DESERT WHITE PEOPLE

[EliteLX]

The word "junk" simply stands for for "I do not like this poll" these past couple of weeks.

Quit being a hack and accept a poll result as having room for possible error and stop being a sore little loser.

[NOVA Green]

For all of the talk on Atlas regarding Nevada, from the Mormon community, Latinos, English only polls, and recent trending, Dem's over-performing on ED vs Pre-ED polling, and "White Education Voter Gap", there is a major factor that has been largely ignored.

1.) Retirees and Senior Citizens compose the fastest growing demographic group within the state, with the vast majority from California, in particular SoCal, and generally tend to be more working-class and middle-class retirees. This is Trump's best age demographic.

http://lasvegassun.com/news/2010/jan/03/new-and-older-demographic/

2.) Las Vegas, for decades the fastest growing city in the country was hit hardest and has been the slowest to recover from the collapse of the housing marking in the late 2000s/ Great Recession. Although the collapse occurred under a Republican President, the lack of recovery happened under a Democratic President.

http://lasvegassun.com/news/2016/may/02/las-vegas-housing-market-rising-from-the-grave/

3.) These two factors explain more than anything else, Clinton's lackluster performance in NV, and also what appears to be an extremely competitive election this year in the state.

Imagine for a second, SoCal retirees selling their overvalued 3 bedroom ranch in places like OC and Long Beach for $450k, trading it in for a much larger and modern house in LV, and essentially refinancing their mortage in the process, only to see the value of their retirement nest-egg collapse to $250k.

Additionally, I suspect that there are some cultural gaps between the newer waves of heavily Anglo retirees, and a rapidly growing Latino community where Trump's message of cultural exclusivity resonates strongly, among California retirees that would have been the backbone of the Prop 187 coalition back in the early '90s.

We have enough recent data to now assume that Nevada is extremely close, and possibly even with a narrow Trump edge, and although this particular poll was not conducted with Spanish-live calls, this is an A+ pollster and jives with other recent polls, including A polls from Marist and Ipsos (Methodology excepted).

[ApatheticAustrian]

i would argue that a "trump +2"-poll in NV still makes hillary the favorite if the last presidential elections are any kind of reasonable factor.


on the other hand, maybe the specific economic system of NV makes it more republican this year than could otherwise be assumed.

would be kind of ironic if the most hispanic states of the US would become...like the most "black" states of the nation, more republican in a year of anti-hispanic outbursts.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

For all of the talk on Atlas regarding Nevada, from the Mormon community, Latinos, English only polls, and recent trending, Dem's over-performing on ED vs Pre-ED polling, and "White Education Voter Gap", there is a major factor that has been largely ignored.

Great analysis overall.  NV definitely cannot be written off as safe for Clinton.  Polling errors in the past are polling errors in the past; Monmouth is a great pollster and knows that and has likely adjusted their model with awareness of that.

I don't like Monmouth state polls because they have almost illegally low sample size ~400.

[Buffalo Bill]

Monmouth doesn't seem to be as credible as some but at the same time I've seen less polls this cycle from places like Zogby, Mason-Dixon, PPP, Harris, and Rasmussen.  I don't think Harris is around anymore but was my favorite.

[Classic Conservative]

Monmouth doesn't seem to be as credible as some but at the same time I've seen less polls this cycle from places like Zogby, Mason-Dixon, PPP, Harris, and Rasmussen.  I don't think Harris is around anymore but was my favorite.

The trash list of pollsters except for PPP. When was the last time you saw polls? 2000?

[Seneca]

+2 is cause for celebration? If anything that means that by election day the bastard out of New York will lose by at least +5, because Nevada polling is usually crap ahead of election day. I can't wait for election day, because it's going to be even funnier than when Romney lost. The crazy white supremacists might actually riot.

That's nothing to laugh about. I'm seriously concerned about white supremacists going on shooting sprees and detonating bombs at the end of this year.

[NOVA Green]

For all of the talk on Atlas regarding Nevada, from the Mormon community, Latinos, English only polls, and recent trending, Dem's over-performing on ED vs Pre-ED polling, and "White Education Voter Gap", there is a major factor that has been largely ignored.

Great analysis overall.  NV definitely cannot be written off as safe for Clinton.  Polling errors in the past are polling errors in the past; Monmouth is a great pollster and knows that and has likely adjusted their model with awareness of that.

There are other demographic factors at work as well in Nevada, as well as in other parts of the American West...

Millennials are now the largest age demographic in the US, having recently surpassed the Baby Boomers in total population, despite in general much lower voter registration and turnout than any other age group. This is a group that overwhelmingly despises Trump who polls 3rd behind a Libertarian candidate for President!

In Nevada, Millennials account for 28% of eligible voters., of whom a huge chunk are "Non-Anglos". Contrary to the of the statements of the Clintonistas on the forum, Bernie actually performed extremely well with Latino voters in Western states, and won the Latino Millennial vote by large margins in this part of the country.

Many on the forum look solely at "Latino segment of the vote by state" and extrapolate percentages assuming Obama '08/'12 margins, while forgetting that Clinton is significantly under-performing Obama '12 margins among this demographic, and in certain states with an extremely high percentage of Millennial eligible voters (Like NV por ejemplo) this could well be the difference between winning and losing states like FL, NC and NV (Let alone making AZ competitive)

[NOVA Green]

For all of the talk on Atlas regarding Nevada, from the Mormon community, Latinos, English only polls, and recent trending, Dem's over-performing on ED vs Pre-ED polling, and "White Education Voter Gap", there is a major factor that has been largely ignored.

Great analysis overall.  NV definitely cannot be written off as safe for Clinton.  Polling errors in the past are polling errors in the past; Monmouth is a great pollster and knows that and has likely adjusted their model with awareness of that.

I don't like Monmouth state polls because they have almost illegally low sample size ~400.

It's a small state...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

For all of the talk on Atlas regarding Nevada, from the Mormon community, Latinos, English only polls, and recent trending, Dem's over-performing on ED vs Pre-ED polling, and "White Education Voter Gap", there is a major factor that has been largely ignored.

Great analysis overall.  NV definitely cannot be written off as safe for Clinton.  Polling errors in the past are polling errors in the past; Monmouth is a great pollster and knows that and has likely adjusted their model with awareness of that.

I don't like Monmouth state polls because they have almost illegally low sample size ~400.

It's a small state...

Not that small. And I was talking more generally. They always have ~400 sample, whether they poll PA or NV.

[NOVA Green]

+2 is cause for celebration? If anything that means that by election day the bastard out of New York will lose by at least +5, because Nevada polling is usually crap ahead of election day. I can't wait for election day, because it's going to be even funnier than when Romney lost. The crazy white supremacists might actually riot.

That's nothing to laugh about. I'm seriously concerned about white supremacists going on shooting sprees and detonating bombs at the end of this year.

My concern is less with the overwhelming majority of Trump supporters who are not violent Right-Wing extremists (Who have been responsible for virtually all of Domestic Terrorist attacks since the late '70s). Think Greensboro, "The Order", Oklahoma City, Columbia SC, as well as 100s of Americans that have been murdered in individual hate crimes, abortion clinic shootings/bombings, etc...

What is particularly concerning, is the significant uptick in individual hate crimes over the past year, at a time where the Extreme-Right is sensing an opening as a result of a major party Presidential candidate, who built his primary victory on items such as the "Muslim Ban", "Mass Deportation", etc....

Back to Nevada, this just happened a few years ago, and one of my friends actually knew the murder victims back in the mid 1990s.

https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2014/09/04/pair-acquitted-nevada-murder-anti-racist-skinheads

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Only took 4 replies until the paternalistic "but muh non-english speaking mexican voters" folks flood the thread.

LMAO

There is no pennsylvania dutch option in the PA polls. Guess we can discredit those as well!

LOLOLOLOL

Current estimated number of Pennsylvania Dutch speakers is about 118k, not all of whom are in Pennsylvania incidentally...but how many of them can speak English poorly or not at all? This is basically a non-sequitur.

[Oak Hills]

Only took 4 replies until the paternalistic "but muh non-english speaking mexican voters" folks flood the thread.

LMAO

There is no pennsylvania dutch option in the PA polls. Guess we can discredit those as well!

LOLOLOLOL

Current estimated number of Pennsylvania Dutch speakers is about 118k, not all of whom are in Pennsylvania incidentally...but how many of them can speak English poorly or not at all? This is basically a non-sequitur.

Not to mention most of them are Amish or Old Order Mennonites, who generally don't vote.

[Adam Griffin]

Only took 4 replies until the paternalistic "but muh non-english speaking mexican voters" folks flood the thread.

LMAO

There is no pennsylvania dutch option in the PA polls. Guess we can discredit those as well!

LOLOLOLOL

Cool your jets there, boshembecile.

[DavidB.]

For all of the talk on Atlas regarding Nevada, from the Mormon community, Latinos, English only polls, and recent trending, Dem's over-performing on ED vs Pre-ED polling, and "White Education Voter Gap", there is a major factor that has been largely ignored.

Great analysis overall.  NV definitely cannot be written off as safe for Clinton.  Polling errors in the past are polling errors in the past; Monmouth is a great pollster and knows that and has likely adjusted their model with awareness of that.

I don't like Monmouth state polls because they have almost illegally low sample size ~400.

It's a small state...

I don't think you know how this works...

[Gabagool102]

Trump, needs this state. Good that he is leading in the polls!

[Associate Justice PiT]

Monmouth doesn't seem to be as credible as some but at the same time I've seen less polls this cycle from places like Zogby, Mason-Dixon, PPP, Harris, and Rasmussen.  I don't think Harris is around anymore but was my favorite.

The trash list of pollsters except for PPP. When was the last time you saw polls? 2000?

     I remember that Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon were both still trusted in 2006. Zogby and Harris had both been confirmed as junk by that point, though.

[NOVA Green]

For all of the talk on Atlas regarding Nevada, from the Mormon community, Latinos, English only polls, and recent trending, Dem's over-performing on ED vs Pre-ED polling, and "White Education Voter Gap", there is a major factor that has been largely ignored.

Great analysis overall.  NV definitely cannot be written off as safe for Clinton.  Polling errors in the past are polling errors in the past; Monmouth is a great pollster and knows that and has likely adjusted their model with awareness of that.

I don't like Monmouth state polls because they have almost illegally low sample size ~400.

It's a small state...

I don't think you know how this works...

I was joking about that hence the wink....

More seriously, I did post some points as to why Nevada might vote Trump this year in a close election, and would certainly welcome your input on that.

Polls always get contentious this time of year on Atlas and Red/Blue avatars alike, as well as many others frequently try to unskew polls.

Monmouth is an A+ pollster, and granted that Nevada is a "tough state to poll", I am not buying the argument that undersampling of Latinos is the main reason that this state is much closer than it should be, considering the '08 and '12 Dem Pres GE results.

This poll is not just an outlier nor an anomaly, and unlike some Red avatars on this forum, I do not believe in automatically resorting to the hack and cliche argument regarding "underpolling of Spanish language voters", although I believe that does likely make a few point difference in a state with a 20% population, it is not sufficient to explain the polling numbers from Nevada this year.

So pray tell, what aspects of my argument do you agree/disagree with regarding Nevada much closer than it should be and why?

[Figueira]

For all of the talk on Atlas regarding Nevada, from the Mormon community, Latinos, English only polls, and recent trending, Dem's over-performing on ED vs Pre-ED polling, and "White Education Voter Gap", there is a major factor that has been largely ignored.

Great analysis overall.  NV definitely cannot be written off as safe for Clinton.  Polling errors in the past are polling errors in the past; Monmouth is a great pollster and knows that and has likely adjusted their model with awareness of that.

I don't like Monmouth state polls because they have almost illegally low sample size ~400.

It's a small state...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 400 too small regardless of how big the state is?

[JJC]

Trump, needs this state. Good that he is leading in the polls!

While I wouldn't say he exactly needs it, it definitely expands his path to victory. If he manages to flip one of the states in the rust belt like PA, then he wins the election.

Assume Trump wins AZ, FL, OH, and IA - that puts him at 244 EVs. Flip PA (which I think is a sleeper state), and he's at 264. From there, he can get to 269 via a variety of ways (listed by most likely);

1) NC - 279
3) VA* - 277
2) NV - 270
3) NH plus 1 (even one delegate from Maine would do) - 269
4) Win literally any other state (CO the next likeliest, but also long-shots like MI and WI)

If he doesn't flip PA, his paths are (listed as most likely);
1) NC, VA - 272
2) NC, NV, NH - 269
3) CO with various combinations of NC, VA, NV, or NH (not all states needed for 269)

* While most would say VA now leans slightly dem, I believe it is a true 50/50 tossup this election. The reason Obama over-performed there twice was because of the high black population turnout. However, even then, the total vote almost exactly matched the national vote in the state - a true bellweather. Will black turnout be as high for Clinton as for Obama? I highly doubt it.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 400 too small regardless of how big the state is?

It depends on your definition of "small".

Monmouth is A pollster = they pretty damn good on average. I like it.
Monmouth has sample of ~400 = much more noisy. I don't like it.

On the other hand, I should choose if you could get 1 poll from one state of ~800, or two polls from two states of ~400, I would choose the second option.