|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 29, 2020, 09:43:29 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  GA-Opinion Savvy: Trump +4
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: GA-Opinion Savvy: Trump +4  (Read 2916 times)
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 15, 2016, 01:25:40 pm »
« edited: September 15, 2016, 01:29:18 pm by HillOfANight »

https://twitter.com/Opinion_Savvy/status/776486657616932864
http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/09/15/poll-trump-pulls-ahead-in-ga/
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/OS-GA-General-9.15.16.pdf
Trump - 46% (43)
Clinton - 42% (43)
Johnson - 10% (11)

Clinton does better among 30-44 (53-30) than she does 18-29 (44-30).

Among whites, she has 26 to 58, a gap of only 32! Obama generally trailed by 50, and most polls had her -40....

Trump leads by getting 22% of the black vote.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,929
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2016, 01:26:32 pm »

So Trump is doing as well in OH as GA, and IA will be four points to the right of GA? lol
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,285
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2016, 01:27:39 pm »

So Trump is doing as well in OH as GA, and IA will be four points to the right of GA? lol

Not surprising, given GA's demographics.
Logged
Buh her emails!
diskymike44
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,422


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2016, 01:27:58 pm »

Someone send Obama to GA!
Logged
Classic Conservative
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,649



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2016, 01:29:07 pm »

He's not really liked there
Logged
Buffalo Bill
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 257
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2016, 01:29:34 pm »

So Trump is doing as well in OH as GA, and IA will be four points to the right of GA? lol

IA has been further to the right than it has been in our life times. I'm not sure if there's a lack of youth there to move it to the left?  I've noticed them in particular being further to the right than normal this year.
Logged
StatesPoll
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 441
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2016, 01:31:23 pm »


Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,517
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2016, 01:32:30 pm »

rofl lmao the state of Iowa is even more of a clown state.
Logged
Pandaguineapig
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,608
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2016, 01:34:35 pm »

Georgia polls have historically overestimated dems so this lead probably is double digits, also they didn't poll in spanish or german
#nevada
Logged
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2016, 01:35:04 pm »

?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/georgia-obama-job-approval
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08/07/ajc-poll-barack-obamas-surprisingly-high-approval-rating-in-georgia/

Poll after poll has shown his approval to be surprisingly high, relative to the fact that this is a red state. He's not after the deplorables, he would be here for the base that does approve.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2016, 01:36:27 pm »

Oh, boy. They unskew A pollsters as Monmouth, CNN and SurveyUSA, but gladly take a C- (worse than Rasmus) pollster as long as they like the results.

Red hacks, so hacks Smiley

Even though GA will probably be near IA Cheesy
Logged
10 minutes into Lysol, Tidepod, and chill..
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,683
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2016, 01:45:20 pm »

Here is another state that if Trump wins, the next Democratic president will carry.
Logged
Buffalo Bill
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 257
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2016, 01:48:16 pm »

Here is another state that if Trump wins, the next Democratic president will carry.

Aside from 2000 and 2004 where Gore and Kerry performed poorly in the south, when has GA been that far to the right?  Prior to Bush it wasn't very red either.  Democrats talk about GA and AZ like Republicans talk about MI and MN.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,782


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2016, 02:04:06 pm »

A bit closer than I expected, but reasonable.  There seems to be a tremendous lack of enthusiasm for both candidates here (specifically conservative, well-educated north Atlanta suburbs).
Logged
Kempros
Rookie
**
Posts: 116
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2016, 02:13:17 pm »

I'm just more curious of States that have not yet really been polled, such as MN, RI, NJ, MS, NM, and CO. Not been much polls recently from these states and would be interesting to see results if the national race is a dead heat, and republican states are less republican then normal.
Logged
Shadows
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,935
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2016, 02:35:36 pm »

If Trump is getting 22% of the black vote, this is a record number for him then. He has huge potential upside in the white vote & I think he will consolidate & get a bigger victory.

I am not convinced about this agency, noway is the racist getting 22% of the black vote!
Logged
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2016, 03:04:35 pm »

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/GAPolls/GA160906/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Georgia_Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables%20of%20Adults%20and%20Registered%20Voters_September%202016.pdf#page=2
He got 3% in NBC Marist, and 2% in CBS YouGov.
https://www.scribd.com/document/321143715/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-Georgia-August-14-2016#from_embed
Logged
Devils30
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2016, 03:11:23 pm »

If Georgia is within 5, NC and FL are probably blue. Of course none of the polls in this state right now exactly make sense.
Logged
Buffalo Bill
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 257
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2016, 03:12:30 pm »

If Georgia is within 5, NC and FL are probably blue. Of course none of the polls in this state right now exactly make sense.

Georgia has always had Democrats polling better than they do.  Remember there's also 3 people running so some of the states might be a little closer than normal.
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2016, 03:16:37 pm »

Here is another state that if Trump wins, the next Democratic president will carry.

Aside from 2000 and 2004 where Gore and Kerry performed poorly in the south, when has GA been that far to the right?  Prior to Bush it wasn't very red either.  Democrats talk about GA and AZ like Republicans talk about MI and MN.
The two democratic Presidents before Obama were both Southerners, which is clear from their strength in states which would now be considered "hard R". GA, on the other hand, went from McCain+8 to Romney+8, even as the nation moved towards the Republicans. The Atlanta area, in particular, has trended D quickly.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,259
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 15, 2016, 04:09:32 pm »

Who keeps posting on the polling threads that causes the screen to stretch out?

Makes it harder to follow any thread where I need to scroll over back and forth just to read the posts!

That being said, GA numbers sound reasonable and consistent with what we have seen elsewhere.
Logged
Buffalo Bill
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 257
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 15, 2016, 04:10:42 pm »

Here is another state that if Trump wins, the next Democratic president will carry.

Aside from 2000 and 2004 where Gore and Kerry performed poorly in the south, when has GA been that far to the right?  Prior to Bush it wasn't very red either.  Democrats talk about GA and AZ like Republicans talk about MI and MN.
The two democratic Presidents before Obama were both Southerners, which is clear from their strength in states which would now be considered "hard R". GA, on the other hand, went from McCain+8 to Romney+8, even as the nation moved towards the Republicans. The Atlanta area, in particular, has trended D quickly.

So it stayed the same in a four year span you're saying?  Trends don't go on forever.
Logged
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 16, 2016, 08:30:57 am »

If Georgia is within 5, NC and FL are probably blue. Of course none of the polls in this state right now exactly make sense.

Georgia has always had Democrats polling better than they do.  Remember there's also 3 people running so some of the states might be a little closer than normal.

Stop with this lie. 2014 showed a close race in the summer that closed toward Perdue after she got barraged with ads tieing her to Obama.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_romney_vs_obama-2150.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ga/georgia_mccain_vs_obama-596.html

2008 RCP final was McCain +4, ended up McCain +5.2. The September polls were McCain +13,18,16,11,8,8,6,7, and it ended up much closer.

2012 RCP Final was Romney +10, and he actually ended up with 7.8. The only September poll at the time had Romney +21.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,613
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 16, 2016, 08:41:35 am »

florida and georgia are special in some ways cause while latinos became quantitative (sheer numbers) and qualitative (willingness to vote) more important, the democratic party still lost even more whites/late-game dixiecrats which canceled out the process of purple-ification.

but if the influx of hispanics (through birth) holds steadily and the re-alignment of blue-collar and white-collar voters stays the same...which means, white-collar voters becoming more democratic even in the deep south) there should be a break even point reachable at least in georgia and florida, during the next 10 years or so.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 16, 2016, 08:45:34 am »

I think we just ride out the next couple of weeks... lets see what happens after debates.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.202 seconds with 14 queries.