TX - Texas Lyceum: Trump +7 /+1(4way LV/RV) Clinton + 4 (2way RV)

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I think I might still add this to the database so that TX isnt a Tossup anymore... Ugh.

They still nailed 2012, they are allowed to get a matchup wrong a year out, lol

[100% pro-life no matter what]

RCP has it as Trump +6 2 way, likely voters

[The Other Castro]

Trump is going to win Texas, but I feel pretty comfortable in saying it'll be within 10 points.

[Person Man]

Trump is going to win Texas, but I feel pretty comfortable in saying it'll be within 10 points.

If it's within 10 points and Trump still becomes President, could the next Democratic president run a campaign or even when there?

[jaichind]

My concern if I were the Clinton camp is that if Trump is only up by 7 in TX, Clinton is way up in CA and IL by Obama 2012 margins or greater, and national polls has it nearly tied, then Trump better be a lot closer in NY than in 2012 (possible) or places like WI, MI, MN, and PA are most likely a lot closer than 2012 winning margins which could push them into Trump's column. 

[KingSweden]

My concern if I were the Clinton camp is that if Trump is only up by 7 in TX, Clinton is way up in CA and IL by Obama 2012 margins or greater, and national polls has it nearly tied, then Trump better be a lot closer in NY than in 2012 (possible) or places like WI, MI, MN, and PA are most likely a lot closer than 2012 winning margins which could push them into Trump's column. 

Or, more likely, Trump is up by more than 7

[Heisenberg]

Trump is going to win Texas, but I feel pretty comfortable in saying it'll be within 10 points.

If it's within 10 points and Trump still becomes President, could the next Democratic president run a campaign or even when there?

Absolutely.  If Trump becomes Pres, I'm calling it now that a Dem will win statewide office in TX in 2018, possibly multiple Dems.  VA in 2001.

Cruz and Abbott will definitely win reelection. Keep in mind that Cruz is #NeverTrump through and through.

Abbott is a good governor and very popular in Texas. And as I've said, if Trump is president and unpopular, Cruz's popularity will go up, he is as #NeverTrump as one can be, and has gone to insanely great lengths to distance himself from Trump.

[Xing]

This is why random pollsters shouldn't be trusted just because you like the results.

[NOVA Green]

This is why random pollsters shouldn't be trusted just because you like the results.

I'll take Emerson or PPP polls from Texas over this one....

[EpicHistory]

Mmmmm that's nice and all but maybe instead of assuming your usual idiotic biases you should maybe look at this polls track record.

The point he's making and this pollster's track records don't necessarily contradict. In 2012, as was cited earlier, this pollster would have no reason to fudge the results while they would have a reason in this election. It's very damning how much influence the Cruz faction has on this pollster.

Plus, let's be realistic on this. If Trump is leading in Ohio by +5 and almost in the double digits in Iowa, he's not going to be this close in Texas.

[ElectionsGuy]

Dayum, Obama has a 56% approval rating with registered voters!

And that confirms that its garbage.

[President Johnson]

Confusing. Trump is ahead in Ohio and Florida but Texas remains that close.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Confusing. Trump is ahead in Ohio and Florida but Texas remains that close.

HISPANICS

[Sir Mohamed]

With both candidates under 40, these numbers are not reliable. TX turning blue isn't happening.

[BaldEagle1991]

As a Texan, I can vouch that Trump is well liked here than Kim Jong Un is liked in North Korea. I'm just letting you guys know.

[Dr. Arch]

As a Texan, I can vouch that Trump is well liked here than Kim Jong Un is liked in North Korea. I'm just letting you guys know.

I have difficulty conjuring up enough reasons to ever live in Texas.

[BaldEagle1991]

As a Texan, I can vouch that Trump is well liked here than Kim Jong Un is liked in North Korea. I'm just letting you guys know.

I have difficulty conjuring up enough reasons to ever live in Texas.

Even in inner city areas here in Houston. You'll see Trump/Pence bumper stickers.

[Dr. Arch]

As a Texan, I can vouch that Trump is well liked here than Kim Jong Un is liked in North Korea. I'm just letting you guys know.

I have difficulty conjuring up enough reasons to ever live in Texas.

Even in inner city areas here in Houston. You'll see Trump/Pence bumper stickers.

I'm sorry.

[BaldEagle1991]

As a Texan, I can vouch that Trump is well liked here than Kim Jong Un is liked in North Korea. I'm just letting you guys know.

I have difficulty conjuring up enough reasons to ever live in Texas.

Even in inner city areas here in Houston. You'll see Trump/Pence bumper stickers.

I'm sorry.

I know. Shockingly they were all Obama guys back in 08 and 12.

What happened?!

[swf541]

This is why random pollsters shouldn't be trusted just because you like the results.

I dont these this one is random one like considering they seemed to have gotten 2012 right

[NOVA Green]

As a Texan, I can vouch that Trump is well liked here than Kim Jong Un is liked in North Korea. I'm just letting you guys know.

I have difficulty conjuring up enough reasons to ever live in Texas.

Even in inner city areas here in Houston. You'll see Trump/Pence bumper stickers.

Not sure what you mean exactly by "Inner City" Houston.... when I lived out there a year back the city itself was more of a sprawling Meglopolis of 2 Million with so many different neighborhoods that sprawled as well.

There a few heavily Republican precincts in "central city" areas like close to the downtown district and other precincts more over in West Houston close to the Galleria area....

Still confused on what "inner city areas in Houston" you are referring to? Just curious...

[Speed of Sound]

As a Texan, I can vouch that Trump is well liked here than Kim Jong Un is liked in North Korea. I'm just letting you guys know.

I have difficulty conjuring up enough reasons to ever live in Texas.

Even in inner city areas here in Houston. You'll see Trump/Pence bumper stickers.

Don't bother looking for them here in Austin. You ain't gonna find one.

[NOVA Green]

As a Texan, I can vouch that Trump is well liked here than Kim Jong Un is liked in North Korea. I'm just letting you guys know.

I have difficulty conjuring up enough reasons to ever live in Texas.

Even in inner city areas here in Houston. You'll see Trump/Pence bumper stickers.

Don't bother looking for them here in Austin. You ain't gonna find one.

How are things looking in Williamson (Round Rock) and Hays County these days?

If Dems are going to make Texas a +6-8 Republican only state this election,my thought is that they need to tie the former and flip the latter....

If this poll didn't mirror results from most of the other reputable polls of the state, I would call it junk and move on, but there's definitely something going on in Texas with George W/ Romney/ Cruz Republicans holding out, and/or a significant shift of Latino support for the Party and educated Anglos in suburban metro areas flipping to Hillary.

[DrScholl]

I don't expect Clinton to win, but I do expect Trump to greatly under perform in counties like Tarrant, Collin and Denton.

[BaldEagle1991]

As a Texan, I can vouch that Trump is well liked here than Kim Jong Un is liked in North Korea. I'm just letting you guys know.

I have difficulty conjuring up enough reasons to ever live in Texas.

Even in inner city areas here in Houston. You'll see Trump/Pence bumper stickers.

Not sure what you mean exactly by "Inner City" Houston.... when I lived out there a year back the city itself was more of a sprawling Meglopolis of 2 Million with so many different neighborhoods that sprawled as well.

There a few heavily Republican precincts in "central city" areas like close to the downtown district and other precincts more over in West Houston close to the Galleria area....

Still confused on what "inner city areas in Houston" you are referring to? Just curious...

East End, Third Ward, Alief. Those areas.