The liberal Republic

[President Johnson]

September 3, 1980: Campaigns agree to two TV debates

After informal consultations, both major part campaigns agreed to two televised TV debates: One for vice presidential candidates, scheduled for October 13 in Madison Square Garden, New York City, between Senators Frank Church (D-ID) and Howard Baker (R-TN), and another between Ronald Reagan and Jerry Brown, scheduled for October 26. The presidential debate will take place at the University of Ohio in Columbus, Ohio. The Reagan campaign initially proposed two presidential debates, which were not agreed upon.



The campaign throughout September



Ronald Reagan was entering the month of September with a strong backing at the Republican National Convention and his entire party. He gave a strong and powerful speech that energized the delegates and his supporters that have long dreamed of a Reagan presidency and a revolution of modern conservatism. His vice presidential choice, Senator Howard Baker, was well received across the board and President Ford's passionate endorsement helped to gain ground among moderates and Rockefeller Republicans skeptical of Reagan and his conservative policies. On September 12, Reagan delivered the signature speech for his economic policies: A tax reduction across the board for all incomes, a reduction of the corportate tax to 22% and an end to several regulations, including programs that were enacted during the Johnson years. "While well intended, we have to confess many of these programs have failed their purpose and instead are a tremendous burdon on our budget", Reagan said at a chamber of commerce speech in Los Angeles, California.

Jerry Brown was also a guest at the Chamber of Commerce in his homestate, just two days later. He strongly rejected Reagan's policies and instead promised to expand access to healthcare and increase funding for education. He also proposed another program to prepare young people for available jobs before they leave highschool or college. "My opponent doesn't have a plan for these young Americans, looking for a decent living. Many businesspeople are here and they know what I'm talking about", the governor stated. Some observers felt like Brown has tying himself to John F. Kennedy by deliberately working to win over young people. However, Republicans tried to counter that impression. Reagan himself invoked Kennedy when it comes to increasing defense spending. "It's no longer Jack Kennedy's party", Reagan said during a speech in Springfield, Illinois, "that's why I left the Democratic Party a long time ago."

Nevertheless, as Brown, Church, Reagan and Baker were tirelessly campaigning, both tickets' convention bumps eventually faded away after Labor Day and the election was widely expected to be closer than 1972, possibly as close as 1960. California was the battleground states' battlegrund: With 45 electoral votes, it not only awarded the most in the nation, both candidates were governors from that state. And poll after poll showed a dead heat or a slight lead going back and forth. As September came to a close, more and more observers were convinced the Golden State would indeed decide the election, as it did in 1972 when Nelson Rockefeller narrowly prevailed over Robert Kennedy. Unless there race was turned upside down during October, California - and with it the entire election - would remain a pure tossup.



September 27, 1980: President Ford signs compromise budget, avoids government shutdown



The country may be in full campaign mode, but governing business wasn't pausing. For months, Democrats in congress and the Ford White House were negotating and fighting over a federal budget. Democratic leadership was insisting on more government spending to grow the struggling economy while President Ford insisted on moderate budget cuts. Before the previous budget was expiring, there a compromise announced that the federal government was barrowing 30 billion dollars in addition while funding for a number aid programs to farmers and housing was reduced by around twenty percent. Neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans were satisfied, but a shutdown was avoided. The House passed the budget resolution with a vote of 260-153 and the Senate 67-31 on September 27 and September 29. The bill was signed into law the next morning. However, it already expires on March 31, though both sides said they wanted to resume talks during the lame duck session so that a full budget to September 30, 1981 can be enacted.


Key September newspaper headlines

Almost a year: How the clock is ticking for Ford and hostages in Iran
- The Washington Post, 9/1/1980

How Reagan would win a landslide (if there was a Democratic president today)
- The Boston Globe, 9/3/1980

Is America ready for Brown? Young people think so
- Miami Herald, 9/13/1980

How Frank Church would be a transformative vice president
- Los Angeles Times, 9/16/1980

Opinion: Here's why Ronald Reagan is the better choice
- Chicago Tribune, 9/21/1980

Opinion: Edmund G. Brown Jr. is the president America needs today
- The New York Times, 9/23/1980

Ford and Nixon can elect Reagan, or end his career
- Sacramento Bee, 9/29/1980



September 30, 1980: New Gallup polls

President Ford job approval
Approve: 53% ▲
Disapprove: 42% ▼


Presidential election, nationally

Jerry Brown (D): 48%
Ronald Reagan: (R): 46%


State by state polling



Shadings indicate tossup, lean (less 3% polling lead), likely (polling lead 5-10%) or safe (double digit polling lead) Democratic/Republican. This is not a ratings map, but a map of polls that will be updated with new polls coming in.

[Sir Mohamed]

Go Brown!

That said, I predict a narrow Reagan victory and his term will be a failure. 1984 ends up a Dem tsunami. Brown could just run again if he keeps it close enough.

[Chips]

If Reagan carries all the tossups, lean and likely Brown states, we get:



On the other side, if Brown sweeps all the tossups, lean and likely Reagan states:



Both parties have high ceilings and low floors. It will be super interesting to see what happens here!

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think the Hostage Crises will end up giving Brown a narrow win





CA is the Tipping Point


Also since I assume you are gonna use CBS coverage, they still did use Blue for Republicans and Red for Democrats that year

[President Johnson]

I think the Hostage Crises will end up giving Brown a narrow win





CA is the Tipping Point


Also since I assume you are gonna use CBS coverage, they still did use Blue for Republicans and Red for Democrats that year

I'll most likely stick with my (non-Atlas) color scheme. It will be CBS coverage though. Unfortunately the last election with Walter Cronkite, who retired a few years after that. My plan, however, is to continue this TL to the present day.

[President Johnson]

October 2 – 3, 1980

BREAKING: US Forces conduct operation to free hostages in Iran

+++ Special Forces attack 2 buildings in Teheran, 25 Iranian casualties +++

+++ 52 hostages evacuated, 3 servicemen wounded; US missals strike Iranian defense system +++

+++ President Ford to address nation +++






Early evening, October 2: Reporters were rushed to the White House East Room for a special address by the President of the United States. Accompanied by his Chief of Staff, Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of State Richard Nixon and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, President Gerald Ford took the stage for a major announcement concerning the 52 hostages taken almost eleven months before.



PRESIDENT FORD: Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen, my fellow Americans: Tonight I am here to announce the United States Armed Forces have conducted a military operation in Teheran to free 52 Americans taken hostage by the Iranian regime. A group of Special Forces at my direct order took off in Turkey earlier today with four helicopters and flew into Iranian territory. For several weeks, our own and allied Intel services, through countless hours of deliberative work, have identified two targets in and around Iran’s capital of Teheran, where those fellow Americans were expected to be held hostage. After all that data was twice verified, my National Security Team and the military developed a comprehensive plan to evacuate the hostages as soon as possible. This process was overseen by Secretary Nixon, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Doctor Kissinger and directly reported to the Oval Office. After careful evaluation during the final days of September, I – as commander in chief – finally issued the order to execute the plan. Earlier today, I informed congressional leaders of both parties of my decision and all of them have expressed their full support. We are not being distracted by campaign season and the federal government is fully functioning at any time. And when it comes to issues like this, where personal freedoms of our own people are taken by a hostile regime, there are no Democrats and Republicans. There are Americans, standing up to tyranny all over the world.

After nearly a year of tyranny against our fellow Americans, our military was able to rescue all remaining hostages and safely fly them to an American Air Base in Turkey for medical treatment. In order to process the operation, I have personally ordered a number of missile strikes against the Iranian air defense system to ensure a safe return of our helicopters. Three members of our service personnel were wounded while storming the buildings in Teheran. One of them is in critical condition, but not in life danger. These brave men are currently been treated in a medical facility in Turkey and will eventually return home in the coming weeks. However, I am delighted to welcome our citizens back home as soon as their condition allows a return to Washington DC.

Let me close my remarks by emphasizing one thing: I hope this is a very clear demonstration that the United States of America and its leadership is firmly standing against tyranny of any kind. We do not seek war or conflict, we seeks peace and freedom. But anyone harming the personal freedoms of our citizens will be confronted with all available tools we have. No one – and I repeat no one – takes innocent citizens of the United States hostage and not paying a price.

Let me also thank the brave men and women of our armed forces, who have once again put their lives in the line in the defense of liberty and justice. Let me also thank Secretary Nixon, Doctor Kissinger and the Joint Chiefs of Staff for their tireless efforts to make this possible.

Thank you all very much and have a good night.


Is this the October Surprise?

“The October Surprise is here”, the New York Times titled the next morning. Both candidates and their running mates were quick in applauding the successful operation and credited the military for their effective action. Reagan already used the events for an attack against Jerry Brown’s proposed fiscal policies, claiming he wanted to cut defense spending. “Fortunately, we have a Republican president right now”, he added. Brown immediately fired back: “Mr. Reagan didn’t want to the guy who’s in charge right now. Now he’s praising him for political purposes.” Vice presidential nominee Frank Church accused Reagan of political expediency: “I think it’s tasteless to even use this incident for a baseless attack against Governor Brown. A Brown/Church Administration will always put safety for Americans at the forefront.”

Nevertheless, after the race reverted back to a tossup and Reagan’s brief convention bump faded away, political observers concluded the events were clearly helping him. Walter Cronkite from CBS commented: “The only question is whether Governor Reagan can keep this momentum going. Looking at the issues, he always got higher marks in defense policy. However, just few elections were decided by foreign policy events. Given the state of our economy, we can’t be so sure 1980 is such an election. One month until ballots are cast and two debates in between. Nothing is said and done before it’s said and done.”

A round of new polling is expected to come in after the upcoming vice presidential debate.


October 4, 1980: As Teheran threatens response, Moscow urges for calm



The Mullah regime didn’t hesitate to issue a response to most recent developments. 25 Iranians, including four civilians, were killed during the so called “Operation Teheran”. Khamenei threatened a harsh response against the US. When asked by a Soviet journalist what he had in mind, he responded “America will soon find out what our answer is.” From October 4 throughout several days, thousands of demonstrators in Teheran chanted anti-American slurs and burned American flags and Gerald Ford puppets, labeling him and Reagan as war criminals.

Meanwhile, the Politburo in Moscow was shockingly quiet about the incident. A spokesman denounced their air strikes against the Iranian defense system, but Iran wasn’t at top of the Kremlin’s concerns (there was still Afghanistan and a lagging economy). A Foreign Ministry official in Moscow later on urged for calm in the region and demanded any hostile action against Iran to end without specifically criticizing the US. As of early October, American and Russian diplomats already work behind the scenes to arrange a possible summit the next president since Jerry Brown in particular has expressed some interest in a meeting with Leonid Brezhnev.


President Ford: Any retaliation will be met with strength, Reagan calls for additional sanctions

After days of anti-American demonstrations and rhetoric in Iran, President Gerald Ford has issued a warning against the Mullah regime. “I think it’s now very clear that any hostile action against the US and its allies will be met with strength. We don’t seek conflict, but we’re not being intimidated”, the commander in chief said at a White House event. Meanwhile, Ronald Reagan has called for more sanctions against Iran. “They must understand that any such behavior has a huge price”, the Republican nominee stated.

In the meantime, Secretary of State Richard Nixon has left for a tour through Western Europe to ensure support from allies in the coming days. It’s also reported he offered American personnel to protect a number of their embassies in the Middle East against potential Iranian counter actions. Some Intel reporters suggested an attack might happen against an allied nation after security for American facilities was ramped up at the president’s order.

[hurricanehink]

I just read this all the way through. Very enjoyable read! It feels West Wing-ish, but man, imagine actual competent governance for that many years. Here’s hoping Brown wins and America truly becomes a liberal republic.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I still think Brown will win given the economy

[President Johnson]

October 13, 1980

★★★ THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE ★★★

★ SENATOR FRANK CHURCH vs. SENATOR HOWARD BAKER ★

Howard K. Smith: Good evening Ladies and Gentleman, my name is Howard K. Smith of ABC News and you tuned in for the vice presidential debate of the 1980 election. It is my great pleasure to welcome you to this program that is dedicated to you, the voters, to make a through and informed decision in this upcoming election. This debate is sponsored by the League of Women voters and we are here at the Madison Square Garden in New York City. The rules of this format are simple: I’m going to ask the two candidates for vice presidential questions of all major topics and they have 90 seconds to answer. The other candidate then has 60 seconds to rebut. If necessary, I will allow a certain debate to take place or intervene in case candidates exceed their time. In the meantime, I’d like to ask the audience to stay silent and not show any approval or disapproval. Except for now, please give the two candidates a round of applause as we welcome them to the stage: Please welcome Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee, the Republican candidate for vice president – and Senator Frank Church of Idaho, the Democratic candidate for vice president. Welcome to both of you, Gentlemen.

[Applause]

Howard K. Smith: Welcome again, Senators. Both campaigns have agreed that there will be no opening statements, but closing one minute statements at the end of the debate. After determination by a coin flip, Senator Church won and is asked the first question tonight. Senator Church, you have repeatedly described Ronald Reagan as a danger for world peace and stability in the world. However, you have credited the Ford Administration for finally ending the hostage crisis by the use of force. Doesn’t that mean the use force is sometimes necessary?

Frank Church: Thank you for that question, Walter. I’m…

Howard K. Smith: (smiles) My name is Howard, Sir.

[Laughter in the audience]

Frank Church: (smiles) Pardon, so now I messed up the beginning.

Howard Baker:: He and Walter Cronkite look that similar, don’t they?

[Laughter in the audience]

Frank Church: Well, I don’t want to get in trouble with CBS. But seriously, to come back to your question, Howard: With regard to the use of force, Jerry Brown and I always said that it is a last resort when anything else as failed. That was the case here as far as I can say. It seems that this is a false characterization of my position by our opponents that I hereby reject. However, what we have to talk about is how to make sure crisis like these don’t even emerge in the first place or are prevented before actually happening. I still have many open questions to what the Ford Administration has done in the months leading up to this crisis. And neither Senator Baker nor Governor Reagan have provided a sufficient answer to what they would be doing differently. It seems that Governor Reagan is quick in calling for the use of force without using other took available in the first place.

Howard K. Smith: Senator Baker, what’s your reaction?

Howard Baker:: What Senator Church sounds like a thorough strategy, , but will due respect, is merely a platitude. In this specific situation, the use force was necessary to bring back our citizens that were held hostage by a hostile regime. After negotiations have failed, the president made the decision to use the military and got it right. Governor Reagan as commander in chief will always take care that whenever rights of Americans are infringed that they will be restored as quickly as possible.

Frank Church: Again, senator, neither Governor Brown or I have questioned that use of force was necessary in that specific situation. However, this crisis didn’t just fall upon us. Please let’s not act as if that was the case. Following the Shah’s ousting, a new and potentially dangerous situation has emerged in Iran. There were Intel reports of potential threats. What did the Republican administration do to protect our citizens in Iran? Secretary Richard Nixon has refused to give detailed answers in congressional hearings. I demand the secretary to again appear before the senate intel committee and explain.

Howard Baker:: I would agree that there are open questions, however, let’s not pretend there could have been that one decision that in advance could have made the difference. Thanks to our military, our fellow countrymen will be back home soon. Now, Governor Brown has refused to increase our defense spending and even suggested cuts to the Pentagon budget. Under a Reagan Administration, that will never happen.




Howard K. Smith: Thank you, Senator Baker, you have already got me to the next topic. Senator Baker, you and your running mate, Governor Reagan, was warned of defense cuts under a Brown presidency. However, both of you have stressed the need for bringing our fiscal house back in order and even proposed new tax cuts. However, don’t you think that certain cuts in expenditures proposed by Jerry Brown are the more honest way?

Howard Baker:: No, Howard, I don’t think so. Cutting our defense budget would inevitably mean less peace as that would embolden the Soviets and others to increase their defense capabilities. They’re already doing that since the Democratic congress has rejected one increase requested by President Ford after another. The truth of the matters is that our fiscal order is in disorder because we have a lagging economy. The tax relief proposed by Governor Reagan would bring us back to a path of growth and increase government revenue and balance the budget as we eliminate other wasteful spending.

Frank Church: Not the case, Senator. Not the case. And you know that. That’s why you endorsed Gerald Ford in the Republican primaries before he was forced out by the Goldwater-wing of your party. What Jerry Brown has proposed is a reduction of the increase in defense spending and eliminate waste and fraud. That has nothing to do with our defense capabilities, even if Governor Reagan tries to make this point all day long.

Howard Baker:: No, Frank, it’s not true. Jerry Brown told the New York Times he’ll reduce defense spending to balance the budget. In the end, he will raise our taxes, weaken our defense and the economy will fall in a depression. He will approve all the Democratic congress’ desires for spending increases in programs that are too expensive and not effective.

Howard K. Smith: Senator Church, I believe the senator here is right and Governor Brown indeed wants to limit defense spending.

Frank Church: Again, this is not a budget cut. It’s an elimination of wasteful items and a reduction in the increase…

Howard Baker:: Elimination, cut, reduction… you can call it whatever you want. In the end, it weakens our defense capabilities. In order to priories other spending items the congress wants to pass. Governor Reagan will not allow that to happen as president and make sure we get back to grow the economy.


Howard K. Smith: That gets us to the economy. Senator Church, the Reagan campaign has proposed a recovery program of tax cuts and deregulation. Your campaign has voiced opposition to such measures for a number of reasons. What I’m trying to understand, any many Americans try to understand, is what your program is to get back to economic growth. Would you outline these plans?

Frank Church: Indeed, Howard, the Reagan campaign as proposed a bunch of measures that several economists have described as “voodoo economics”. My opponent on the stage here said something similar before he joined the ticket. The truth of the matter is that we have an economic crisis as a result of energy shortage. What we have proposed is a detailed plan to gain more energy independence from OPEC countries and work towards more stable relationships around the world. Secondly, the economic problems have face mainly affect the middle class and working poor, who can’t find decent paying jobs. What a Brown/Church Administration would do is to implement a policies such as a moderate tax reduction for small businesses and increase the minimum wage as a first step. Furthermore,...

Howard K. Smith: Excuse me, your time is up. Senator Baker?

Howard Baker:: I’m surprised. Really surprised. Frank, you know we are good colleagues in the senate and I always enjoy having lunch with you, but I’m surprised you bring up tax cuts. You and many of your Democratic colleagues like Ted Kennedy and George McGovern never found a tax they didn’t like. That’s why I’m more than skeptical how serious Governor Brown is when it comes to tax cuts. He will quickly move away once he approves your colleague’s long list of additional spending.

Howard K. Smith: Senator Baker, I quickly want to follow-up on what Senator Church said about your previous criticism of Ronald Reagan’s tax policies.

Howard Baker:: Look, we all know campaigns get heated. I supported President Ford before who had some different ideas. But the ideas of Governor Reagan and President Ford are much closer together than anything my Democratic friends intend to do.

Frank Church: Well, listen, I understand my opponent doesn’t like saying this. The truth here is that Governor Reagan stands for the same policies than Barry Goldwater, that were completely rejected in 1964. That’s why the Republican Party turned to Nelson Rockefeller, who won two terms in the presidency. Unfortunately, the right-wing has again taken over and my friend Howard serves as Ronald Reagan’s moderate face.

Howard Baker:: Come on, Frank, you know better. The American people understand that Ronald Reagan is a man of great love for country who’s completely trustworthy. Unfortunately, the Democrats try to demonize him to win this election.


Howard K. Smith: Finally, I want to come to your personal role in a potential Reagan or Brown Administration. What would be your main focus as vice president? Senator Baker, you go first.

Howard Baker:: My goal is 100% on winning this election. That we not just elect Ronald Reagan as our next president, but also more Republicans to congress and across the board. Only then we can enact a bold agenda that brings us back to sustainable growth, peace through strength and a government that doesn’t regulate every aspects of our lives. As vice president, I will do whatever the president asks me to do, especially when it comes to passing legislation.

Frank Church: Something we haven’t talked about tonight is the importance of goof government reforms. That was always something I enjoyed working for and Governor Brown as expressed his confidence in myself to help him on that particular matter. However, I hope to bring in my experience as a senator to make a Brown/Church Administration something Americans can be proud of. And I’m also looking forward to work with Senator Baker and my Republican colleagues.


Howard K. Smith: Now it’s time for closing statements. Senator Church, you have one minute. Then Senator Baker will have one minute.

Frank Church: My fellow Americans: I am standing here today as a candidate for vice president. Not because I want to add another title to my name, although vice president would be a great honor, I want to bring in my experience to help Governor Jerry Brown lead our nation into the next decade. A man I’ve gotten to know very closely since he chose me as his running mate. A man of honor and principle, who wants to make sure every man, women and child has a chance in this country to be whatever she or he wants. Ladies and Gentlemen, it’s time for a new generation of leaders. Let us begin this chapter together. Vote for Jerry Brown and Frank Church in November 4. Thank you.

Howard Baker:: My fellow citizens: Republican presidents Rockefeller and Ford have accomplished a lot over the previous eight years. And still, our economy is in trouble, our standing in the world under pressure. Our fiscal house not in order. And while these are great challenges, there’s reason for optimism. We can solve these problems by letting you do what you can do best: Business. We have the best workers in the world. The best businesses, scientists and much more. Let us get the government back to focus on issues that matter instead of overregulating and overspending. Let us elect Ronald Reagan on November 4. That’s why I’m asking for your vote. Thank you.

Howard K. Smith: Thank you both very much. Thank you also to all of you at home for your attention. I hope we were able to give you some clarity what the candidates and campaigns stand for so that you can make an informed decision on election day, November 4. Don’t forget to tune in the presidential debate on October 26, that my colleague Barbara Walters will host. Thank you and good night.


October, 1980: New Gallup polls

In the middle of October, new polls put the Brown campaign on alert. Following the successful operation in Iran, President Ford's approval rating jumped to 67% and Ronald Reagan took a lead in the national vote. He also managed to pull away a bunch of states the current California governor was ahead in, including California itsself, leading his successor there 48-46%. However, Reagan operatives still urge caution and emphasize that several of leads are fragile. Brown still had time to come back in the game, and Reagan's team needed to be prepared despite the fact their chances significantly improved. And that can just be enough in a pure tossup race.


Vice Presidential debate

Who won the vice presidential debate?
Howard Baker (R): 46%
Frank Church (D): 39%
Neither: 15%

Who would you trust more to take over as president if necessary?
Howard Baker (R): 41%
Frank Church (D): 40%
Both equally: 12%
Neither: 7%

Who did you find morre likeable?
Howard Baker (R): 43%
Frank Church (D): 43%
Both equally: 14%


President Ford job approval
Approve: 67% ▲
Disapprove: 30% ▼


Presidential election, nationally

Ronald Reagan (R): 49%
Jerry Brown (D): 44%


Generic congressional ballot

Republican: 45%
Democratic: 44%


State by state polling



Shadings indicate tossup, lean (less 3% polling lead), likely (polling lead 5-10%) or safe (double digit polling lead) Democratic/Republican. This is not a ratings map, but a map of polls that will be updated with new polls coming in.

[President Johnson]

October 26, 1980

★★★ THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE ★★★

★ GOVERNOR RONALD REAGAN vs. GOVERNOR JERRY BROWN ★

Barbara Walters: Good evening Ladies and Gentleman, my name is Barbara Walters of ABC News I welcome you to the only presidential debate of the 1980 election campaign. It is my great pleasure to welcome you to this program that is dedicated to you, the voters. We want to make sure you’re able to make informed decision in less than two weeks. The rules of this debate, sponsored by the League of Women voters, are as follows: I’m going to ask the two candidates for presidential questions of all major topics and they have 90 seconds to answer. The other candidate then has 60 seconds to rebut. If necessary, I will a allow a certain debate to take place or intervene in case candidates exceed their time. In the meantime, I’d like to ask the audience to stay silent and not show any approval or disapproval. Except for now, please give the two candidates a round of applause as we welcome them to the stage: Please welcome former California Governor Ronald Reagan, the Republican nominee for president, and current Governor of California, Jerry Brown, the Democratic nominee for president of the United States. Welcome to both of you, Gentlemen.

[Applause]

Barbara Walters: Welcome again. Let’s begin. By the flip of a coin, the first question will go the Governor Brown, who will then have the second closing statement at the very end of this format. Governor Brown: We have to confess that America’s economy has fallen into a downturn after years of growth and prosperity. The federal government is spending billions more than it takes in. Americans understand this is a challenging time and there’s no pie in the sky. What specific sacrifices are you asking them to make?

Jerry Brown: Thank you very much for this question, Barbara. Also welcome Governor Reagan, I’m glad we’re having this discussion. Barbara, you made correct assertion in what kind of a condition our country is in. The economy is not doing as well as it should, the federal deficit is unacceptable and prices are rising. To resolve these issues and bring us back on a path to growth, we have to ask what caused these problems. And if we’re being honest, we have to confess that many of these problems are the result of a Republican executive that has being infective in dealing with them. Whether it’s resolving international energy crisis, making sure small businesses and middle class people get the help they need or doing something about inflation. My worthy opponent himself has identified these problems and ran against the president. However, he proposed an agenda that was more of the same policies that have never worked. I have a very different philosophy.

Ronald Reagan: Governor, you just didn’t answer the question. The reason is as simple as that: Mr. Brown and his party want to raise taxes and have more regulations than ever before. He complains about small businesses and middle class families struggling financially? However, he doesn’t mention that it is his party in congress blocking tax reductions President Ford has proposed multiple times in recent months. My policies would include even larger such tax cuts and a rollback of deregulations holding our economy hostage. Governor Brown and the Democrats think the government is the solution to these problems. I say it is the problem, because policies in this country have largely been determined by a Democratic controlled congress.

Jerry Brown: Excuse me. If my memory is correct, the executive branch has been under Republican control since 1973 and the House was under Republican control from 1977 to 1979. However, I’m not here to look back. America needs fresh new leadership for the next decade and Senator Church and I stand ready to lead us with a clear vision like Jack Kennedy did twenty years ago.

Barbara Walters: Governor Reagan, you have time and time again stressed the need for deregulations. What regulations would you end or scale back as president?

Ronald Reagan: Barbara, there’s a long list, that is about the finalized very soon. By some of America’s best minds. Some regulations when it comes to public contracts can be scaled back or outright revoked by executive action. I will certainly use executive powers to do so, as I have in California when my opponent’s father turned over a state that was overtaxed and overregulated. I turned around California, the largest state in the nation, and will do so again in Washington. Others can only be removed by law and as president, I’ll work with the congress to get it done. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case in recent years.

Jerry Brown: Let’s get something straight here: Some regulation may indeed need modification or should be ended if no longer useful. I will carefully issue reviews here, as I have in California. What Governor Reagan is trying to sell here is the narrative of all so-called regulations are some evil government tools invented only to make your lives as difficult as possible. In fact, many regulations are protections. For consumers, for workers, our environment and much more. I have passed such protections in California after Governor Reagan in his term has barely shown any interest in doing so. I stand by that record and as president will fight for rights of workers, consumers and will always protect our environment. Especially on latter, Governor Reagan’s record speaks for itself. And not in a good way.

Ronald Reagan: You’re at it again, governor. You’re at it again. My policies have never been about removing all worker and consumer protections or end useful environmental protections. It’s a misconception you and your campaign are creating to stoke fear.

Jerry Brown: You are at again, governor. You’re deflecting from your record, and for good reasons. Why aren’t you telling us exactly what so-called regulations you want to rescind? We can go through the list of worker and consumer protection laws you vetoed in California. We can go through the long list of environmental protections by Democratic and Republican administrations you vigorously opposed, even opposed before state and federal courts. This is not going to happen in a Brown Administration, we will make sure workers are protected.

Ronald Reagan: Workers can only be protected if they actually have a job. The policies I have proposed will deliver exactly that.

Jerry Brown: He’s not answering the question. But that’s okay, we know the answer. It’s visible we have very different economic philosophies.



Barbara Walters: Indeed that became clear. Before we move on, I have one follow-up question about the debt. Governor Reagan, while it is true that the deficit in California was substantially reduced under your administration, Governor Brown was continued to consolidate the state’s budget. Why does your campaign continue to insist a Brown presidency would lead to further debt?

Ronald Reagan: It is absolutely correct, Barbara, that I have turned over to my opponent a fiscal house in order after eight years as governor and inheriting a state in crisis from the first Governor Brown. However, when I’m looking at the policies Mr. Brown as proposed and add these up to all the spending wishes of his Democratic colleagues in congress, our deficit will increase at levels we haven’t seen in a long time. The only reason the situation isn’t even worse today is because President Ford has kept them in check. However, we need to do more and implement structural reforms to eliminate our deficit.

Jerry Brown: What Governor Reagan says sounds good, it just doesn’t match reality. He wants to cut taxes across the board, especially for those who even don’t need it, increase defense spending to amounts the Pentagon is not even asking for and promises to eliminate the debt. That’s voodoo economics, and even many Republicans know it. They know it, my friends. The numbers don’t add up. And don’t tell me you’re getting more tax revenue because the economy starts booming as a result of your tax policy. It doesn’t work. It’s just the philosophy of the 1920s all over again, and we full well know how that ended.

Ronald Reagan: My plan is endorsed by numerous economists and professionals.

Jerry Brown: None of them was ever right on much.



Barbara Walters: Alright, I know both of you passionately discuss these policies, but we need to move on. Governor Brown, you have rejected calls for additional aid to local forces in Afghanistan against Soviet invaders. Senator Baker, Governor Reagan’s running mate, has called your approach reckless and called in question your ability to serve as commander in chief. What’s your response.

Jerry Brown: We’re already delivering arms and other equipment worth millions of dollars. So far, we have only seen more bloodshed, refugee movements and a humanitarian crisis. And we don’t know what happens to all the weaponry we send over there. Senator Church, my vice presidential candidate, has time and time again demanded more information from the Ford Administration and has gotten nothing. We have no accountability here. Therefore, I don’t think more of the same will actually work. We need a diplomatic solution.

Ronald Reagan: Unfortunately, there’s none insight. We have been told for many years, including the previous two Republican presidents, more diplomacy and détente will make the world safer. However, we have to confess that this only made us look weak and emboldened the Soviets to intervene in a sovereign country they had no business in doing so. The fact Governor Brown is not ready to grant all aid necessary to stop that invasion is very concerning and should not the be the policy of the United States. Otherwise, we have more situations like in Teheran. After diplomacy failed here, the president took decisive action and ended the crisis on our terms.



Barbara Walters: Finally, I want to raise an issue that has gotten increasing attention in the public discourse. Some political observers and even Democratic lawmakers have questioned whether Governor Reagan at 69 years is ready to be president. However, others have questioned Governor Brown’s experience or lack thereof. At 69 and 42, you would be either the oldest or youngest president. Now, I’d like to know from you, Governor Brown, what you think about Governor Reagan and then vise versa.

Jerry Brown: I’m not here to question Governor Reagan’s physical and mental readiness. I think he ought to be elected, but for reasons we have talked about. I have been told to respect our elders, and I will do so here as well. Regardless of any political differences.

Ronald Reagan: Thank you, Governor. My opponent certainly has experience in elected office and running a large state. We had presidents with less experience. I only question whether it’s the right experience. I’m not going to exploit my opponents youth for political purposes.

Barbara Walters: Thank you. We are almost at the end. Let’s go to the closing statements. Governor Reagan, the word is yours.

Ronald Reagan: My fellow Americans: This a challenging time for all of us, as the economy is in a critical condition, our deficit rising and our standing in world challenged. I had the blessing of enjoying a long and colorful life and serve the people of California when the call came to bring our state back from stagnation and debt. I am asking you now to award me with your trust and confidence to use that experience to cure our problems at home and abroad. So that we together make America great again and that shining city upon a hill that we so dearly love. Thank you.

Jerry Brown: My fellow Americans: Soon you will be going to the polls and determine the next leader for this great nation of ours. We’re at the beginning of a new decade. A new decade, that requires new thinking, determination and experience alike, to truly make this another great American decade. Together, in a spirit of love and friendship toward another, we can do this. So that all of us, no matter where you come from or what you believe in, can build a future of peace, freedom and prosperity. I’m ready for this. Frank Church is ready for this. We hope to earn your vote on November 4. Thank you and good night.

Barbara Walters: Thanks to both of you, that was a productive and civil debate. Thanks to all of you at home as well, and we hope you find it easier now to make a decision. And don’t forget to vote, election day is November 4. Good night.


October 27, 1980: New Gallup polls

By late October, Ronald Reagan's lead was shrinking again, although he was still ahead. However, the polls found that Jerry Brown made a strong imperession at the debate, for which he heavily prepared.


Presidential debate

Who won the vice presidential debate?
Jerry Brown (D): 51%
Ronald Reagan (R): 42%
Neither: 7%

Who would regard as more competent?
Jerry Brown (D): 44%
Ronald Reagan (R): 42%
Both equally: 11%
Neither: 3%

Who did you find morre likeable?
Jerry Brown (D): 47%
Ronald Reagan (R): 43%
Both equally: 5%
Neither: 5%


President Ford job approval
Approve: 65% ▼
Disapprove: 31% ▲


Presidential election, nationally

Ronald Reagan (R): 48%
Jerry Brown (D): 46%


Generic congressional ballot

Democratic: 47%
Republican: 44%


State by state polling



Shadings indicate tossup, lean (less 3% polling lead), likely (polling lead 5-10%) or safe (double digit polling lead) Democratic/Republican. This is not a ratings map, but a map of polls that will be updated with new polls coming in.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hmm I wonder if this will be 2016 in reverse with the Republicans expected to win but a last-minute surge by the other party allows them to pull out the upset.

[Fetterman my beloved]

Ronald Reagan: My plan is endorsed by numerous economists and professionals.

Jerry Brown: None of them was ever right on much.

Lol, get him Jerry.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ronald Reagan: My plan is endorsed by numerous economists and professionals.

Jerry Brown: None of them was ever right on much.

Lol, get him Jerry.

Milton Friedman would disagree

[America Needs R'hllor]

Go Brown!!!

[Sir Mohamed]

Ronald Reagan: My plan is endorsed by numerous economists and professionals.

Jerry Brown: None of them was ever right on much.

Lol, get him Jerry.

That's amazing.

Still predicting a narrow Reagan win and his presidency is a total failure, causing a major backlash and Dem realignment.

[President Johnson]

October 28, 1980: US Embassy in Cairo attacked by Iranian militias, US forces push back, 3 servicemen wounded



Ever since American forces freed hostages in Iran earlier in October, tensions between Washington and Teheran have significantly increased, thousands of anti-American protests have occurred in the capital of Iran. Revenge was promised, flags and puppets showing President Gerald Ford and Republican presidential candidate Ronald Reagan were burn. At the order of Secretary of State Richard Nixon, security for all American diplomatic facilities in the Middle East were significantly increased immediately after the operation was successfully conducted.

In the early morning hours (local time), about two dozen armed forces attacked the embassy in Cairo with machine guns and a bomb; it was pure luck no one was hurt at the detonation. However, US security personnel was quickly able to push back and kill at least ten of the attackers. Late in the evening Washington time, President Ford was rushed back from the White House residence to the Situation Room and briefed on the situation. The next morning, it was left to Secretary Richard Nixon to inform the public. “The situation is under control now. The Iranians deny any responsibility, but our sources tell us different. The administration and the president at the forefront will at some point decide how to proceed”, he remarked.

Sources from within the White House report that Nixon pushed for a military response as sanctions were already in place to a maximum. However, National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger quickly talked Nixon out of that as President Ford is still in contact with Egyptian President Sadat and the Kremlin over conflict with Iran.

The incident was hardly commented by the presidential candidates, although Reagan again stressed to “take Iran on very strongly”, without specifying his previous positions.


November 1, 1980: Jobs reports shows US loses 100k in October, economy officially in recession

Economic stagnation continues to haunt the United States: Newly published data shows that there has been a net loss in jobs for the first time in years, as about 100,000 jobs were lost in the month of October. The news comes as the Ford Administration and the Democratic-controlled congress have failed to agree on an economic recovery package and after a government shutdown was just avoided in a last-minute compromise budget passed and signed in September. However, markets are still nervous with the unclear political outcome of the coming months.

Democratic presidential candidate Jerry Brown quickly reacted to the news and called out Republican economic policies at a rally in St. Louis, Missouri, on November 2. Brown again called for the need of a tax reform that lowers tax rates for middle class and raises taxes for upper incomes and an economic recovery program for small businesses. Meanwhile, Ronald Reagan faulted the Democratic congress for “inaction and utter refusal to take any responsivity”, in one of his last campaign stumps in Portland, Oregon, just before he was heading off to California.

The New York Times concluded this report “may shift the balance in the race back, after Reagan and the Republican campaign gained ground following the hostage liberation.” Independent economists called upon congress and the Ford Administration to set up an economic and jobs program during the lame duck session, regardless of the outcome of the election.


November 3, 1980

Reagan finishes presidential campaign with mega rally in Columbus



Monday, November 3, was the final day before the election. After three rallies at West coast – one in Oregon and two in California – Ronald Reagan decided spend his last day on the trail in Columbus, Ohio. The former governor and conservative hopeful has had a small lead in most polls conducted in the Midwestern battleground state and most election analysts concluded that he’s indeed the favorite to carry the state. However, Reagan’s campaign managers felt that one final event may very well lock the state for him.

Just days in advance, the White House announced that President Gerald Ford would attend the rally as well and give a campaign speech for his former rival. Ford has held five rallies for Reagan over the month of October, one of them in his homestate of Michigan, where Jerry Brown is still ahead in polling. Reagan’s final Columbus rally attracted more than 80,000 people, as the nominee gave a 30 minute speech. Before him, other prominent Republican politicians gave remarks, such as Senator Barry Goldwater, Senator John Tower, former Governor Jim Rhodes and of course Howard Baker, the vice presidential nominee. President Ford gave the final speech and assured moderate voters that the country would be in “safe hands” with Reagan. Ford also emphasized the need to vote for Republican candidates downballot to make sure Reagan has the votes to pass ambitious tax reforms.


Brown and Church host finally campaign event in Sacramento with 50k people

Jerry Brown gave a nearly unpresented 25 speeches since the debate on October 26, most in California, followed by Illinois, Missouri, Washington state and Georgia. Back in Sacramento, where he has been governor for the last six years, the Brown campaign finished the election seasons with one major rally that was attended by at least 50,000 people. Other high-profile speakers were vice presidential nominee Frank Church and New York Governor Robert Kennedy, who himself has done a number of solo rallies for Brown in Pennsylvania and Delaware during the final days of October.

Brown and Church once again warned that a Reagan presidency would represent a dramatic shift in domestic and foreign policy that the US can’t afford. “Economic policies of the 1920s, social policies of the 1940s and a mindset of the 1950s”, Church told a fired up crowd. “Mr. Reagan is not a bridge the future, he’s a bridge to the past. To the worst things of the past”, Brown added. Bobby Kennedy warned that Reagan would be a fundamental threat to the legacy of his brother and the legacy of former President Lyndon Johnson, under whom he “proudly served as vice president.”

During a brief exchange with reporter after the rally was finished, Brown expressed his confidence the win the election. “I’m pleased where we are. It’s going to be a close one for sure. But Frank and I believe that we have very good chances to win. And California will put us over the top”, the governor said.


Major November 3 headlines

The next president inevitably inherits unsolvable problems – The New York Times, November 2

On the brink of a conservative revolution: How Reagan could shape the world – Chicago Tribune, November 2

What Brown’s California can teach America – Los Angeles Times, November 3

Locked in a tight race, don’t expect a president-elect Wednesday morning – Miami Herald, November 3

Brown can only win, even if he (narrowly) loses – Boston Globe, November 3

A US election Western Europe will long remember – Le Monde (France)

Never since 1932 were the choices so different – Der SPIEGEL (Germany)


November 3, 1980: FINAL POLLS

President Ford job approval

Approve: 59% ▼
Disapprove: 36% ▲


Presidential election, nationally

Final polling average:
Ronald Reagan (R): 48.4%
Jerry Brown (D): 47.7%


Generic congressional ballot

Democratic: 48%
Republican: 45%


State by state polling



Shadings indicate tossup, lean (less 3% polling lead), likely (polling lead 5-10%) or safe (double digit polling lead) Democratic/Republican. This is not a ratings map, but a map of polls that will be updated with new polls coming in.


----

NEXT: Full coverage of 1980 election night (and beyond). Enjoy!

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hopefully Reagan wins

[hurricanehink]

Looking like a Brown victory, with a possible Reagan win in the popular vote.

[President Johnson]

November 4, 1980

★★★ 1980 United States presidential election ★★★

★★★ CBS Election Night Coverage ★★★

★★★ With Walter Cronkite & Dan Rather ★★★

Walter Cronkite: Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen all over America! Also a warm welcome to our international viewers! Welcome to CBS coverage of election night 1980. It is my great pleasure to guide you through this long night of numbers, figures and reports all over the 50 states as we’re eager to get in results. I am also delighted to be joined by my dear colleague Dan Rather, who is here with me in our New York City studio.

Dan Rather: Good evening and welcome from me, too. Thank you very much for turning in our program tonight. We look forward to provide you all information you need in the coming hours in this national election, the essence of our democracy.



Walter Cronkite: After many months and an exhausting campaign, election day has finally arrived. America will elect a new president today, all 435 members of the House of Representatives, a third of the senate, a couple of governorships and several local level officials. The main focus will obviously be on the presidential race between Republican Ronald Reagan and Democrat Jerry Brown. This is a unique battle between the current and former governor of California, the largest state in the nation. Polls indicate that is going to be a neck in neck race with no clear favorite. As for the congress, we consider the Democratic Party having the upper hand, currently holding a majority of seats in the House and 53 senators. The outcomes will determine if and how many of their legislative priorities a President Reagan or a President Brown can enact into law.

Dan Rather: You said it, Walter, America will elect a new president today. However, in such a tight race, the question is how long it will take to count all the votes as we’re potentially getting to a situation in which a few thousands in a bunch of state will determine the outcome. I think we all need to prepare for a long night. It’s also a unique election in the sense that it doesn’t involve a sitting president for the first time since 1960 as President Gerald Ford conceded the race for the Republican nomination to Governor Reagan back in spring. Consequently, the Ford presidency will remain a placeholder, as he had to step in for late President Nelson Rockefeller, who suddenly died of a fatal heart attack in May last year.

Walter Cronkite: In fact, we haven’t seen a president taking himself out of the race since Harry S. Truman in 1952.

Dan Rather: There are major distinctions, though. First off, Truman declined to run again before multiple primaries were held and he was an elected president at the time. Mr. Ford suffered from the same fate as ascended presidents of the 19th Century, who were not even nominated to seek a full term. This streak was broken in the 20th Century by Presidents Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge and Harry Truman himself. President Lyndon B. Johnson did so twice by winning reelection in 1964 and 1968 before term limits set in. Another difference is that President Truman suffered from generally low approval ratings in 1952, falling into the 20s range. President Ford never had such a terrible approval rating over his tenure. He actually remained relatively popular with the general electorate.

Walter Cronkite: You’re raising good points, Dan. That’s very much true. Nonetheless, President Ford twice benefited from extraordinary circumstances. The first obviously is the death of his predecessor, under whom he served as loyal and active vice president and then received a lot of sympathy approval ratings. And the second instance is the liberation of hostages in Iran, which came just four weeks ago. But you’re certainly right that Gerald Ford was never that unpopular with Americans as a whole and I think he might be favored to win today, if he were the Republican candidate. But he isn’t, and that’s largely the result of the Republican Party’s shift to the right and increasing dissatisfaction with President Rockefeller’s centrist and even liberal policies. We just need to remember that the breakdown between the wings was always 50-50 at least, even ten years ago. Just think back to 1972, when the primaries failed to produce a winner and the nomination was decided by a brokered convention that went to Rockefeller by a razor-thin margin. And while Rockefeller tried to appease both wings in his first term, he shifted to the left after winning his 50 state landslide in 1976. President Ford in the eyes of conservatives just slightly “corrected course” and even went on to pick another moderate for vice president, with William Scranton. Reagan supporters always felt 1980 was their turn and as Mr. Reagan is 69 years of age, this was pretty much seen as his last chance to become president. So this was always a now or never moment and he decided to jump in regardless of what Gerald Ford had done. Obviously Mr. Ford never planned running for president before he ascended to office. President Rockefeller was indeed to looking for Oregon Senator and now Minority Leader Mark Hatfield to run as the moderate Republican in 1980. Obviously things rapidly changed on May 17, 1979, when tragedy struck.

Dan Rather: That’s exactly correct. The question is only whether Reagan as president will be able to keep both wings in line? I think his running mate, Senator Howard Baker, will play a big role here and will have serve has a bridge between the Reagan Administration and moderate Rockefeller Republicans. However, if Mr. Reagan goes on to lose this election, I expect party unity to fall apart in the immediate aftermath. Ever since the Goldwater debacle, moderates have always made the case a conservative can’t win a national election and Rockefeller kind of proved them correct. Or at least they felt that way. A Reagan defeat may prove them right again. Moderates will say “I told you so”, especially in a close race, which we’re obviously going to get. They will make the case that Mr. Ford would have won this election.

Walter Cronkite: Dan, I’m not saying you’re wrong. However, we need to confess that even a narrow defeat would be an enormous feat for Ronald Reagan. I mean, he won the nomination over an incumbent and – assuming he narrowly loses – came close to winning a third term for Republicans after 12 years out of power between 1961 and 1973. People keep comparing Reagan to Goldwater, but he has run a much better and smarter campaign and sold himself as a standard center-right candidate who wants less government and more jobs combined with a strong national defense. Ironically, Jerry Brown also has accomplished something extraordinary with his presidential campaign. If doesn’t end up winning and loses by a close margin, he can easily give it another shot four or eight years from now. Nobody should write Governor Brown off, regardless of what happens tonight. At least unless the polls are way off and Reagan wins in a landslide. But that is almost certainly not going to happen.

Dan Rather: We truly live in interesting times. It’s 5.50 already?

Walter Cronkite: We do, Dan, we do. Let’s show our blank map for the night. States we have to watch are California, obviously and in particular, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut, New Jersey and Oregon. We go to break and come back with first polls closing. As you said, in less than ten minutes. Stay tuned.



Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 0 EV.
Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. (D-CA)/Senator Frank Church (D-ID): 0 EV.
Too early/close to call: 0 EV.
Polls not closed: 538 EV.


6 p.m.

Walter Cronkite: Welcome back, viewers. The 1980 presidential election has officially begun and the first polls have closed. As usual, the states of Indiana and Kentucky begin. And we have a winner in one of them: According to our data on the ground, Indiana was chosen Ronald Reagan for president. There go the first 13 electoral votes into the Reagan column. As for Kentucky, we can’t project a winner at this stage.

Dan Rather: We need to add that Governor Reagan is considered the favorite in Kentucky as well, though we don’t have enough information to make a call at this point. As for Indiana, this is hardly a surprise. The state sticks with its Republican identity at the presidential level.

Walter Cronkite: Coloring of the map has begun as follows:



Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 13 EV.
Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. (D-CA)/Senator Frank Church (D-ID): 0 EV.
Too early/close to call: 9 EV.
Polls not closed: 516 EV.


7 p.m.

Walter Cronkite: Seven p.m. and time for our next poll closings in the states of Vermont, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida. We can’t make a projection in either of them expect for South Carolina, which goes to Ronald Reagan. Once a solid Democratic state, it turned away from the Democrats at the national level since at least the late 40s when Democratic presidents begun supporting civil rights and the national Democratic Party shifted to social liberalism. Governor Reagan earns another eight electoral votes, bringing him up to 21.

Dan Rather: Jerry Brown meanwhile hasn’t earned a single electoral vote. However, this isn’t surprising at this stage. Neither of these are pivotal for him. It’s going to be a long night no matter what.


7.12 p.m.

CBS PROJECTS: KENTUCKY for REAGAN!



Dan Rather: Hold on for a second, I’m just hearing that our network called Kentucky for Ronald Reagan, as have multiple local radio stations. About an hour I added Reagan was favored in the Commonwealth of Kentucky and it seems that as become true. Ronald Reagan wins nine more electoral votes, taking a lead of 30 electoral votes. Jerry Brown is still at zero.

Walter Cronkite: What you at home might ask yourself is whether there’s anything to learn from these early returns? That is certainly not the case, we don’t have enough data to make any projection or even identify in which direction this race is heading. Looking back where we are four years ago at this hour won’t tell you much, or anything. Over whole night. Kentucky and some of the other states like Vermont and Florida were called right away in 1976, though we need to remember that then-President Nelson Rockefeller took them by wide margins and won a massive national landslide. Obviously this election won’t be landslide in either way. Governor Reagan for sure is where he wants to be while Governor Brown is also where he’d expect to be in case of victory.

Dan Rather: Another important call for Kentucky just coming in: Democratic Senator Wendell Ford, first elected in 1974, has won reelection to a second term. Important call for the Democrats in their quest to keep the senate and help a potential president named Edmund G. Brown Jr. to pass his legislative agenda. Senator Ford has a strong local brand in the state, was governor there and even among the group of potential vice presidential candidates. Now let’s check the updated map:




Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 30 EV.
Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. (D-CA)/Senator Frank Church (D-ID): 0 EV.
Too early/close to call: 44 EV.
Polls not closed: 464 EV.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What's interesting about election nights back then is how differently each network called elections. NBC for example called Mississippi for Reagan right as the polls closed while for CBS it was one of the last states they called in OTL.


Anyway hopefully Reagan wins but even if he doesn't, hopefully he still wins California.

[President Johnson]

★★★ CBS Election Night Coverage continues. With Walter Cronkite & Dan Rather. ★★★






7.30 p.m.

Walter Cronkite: Welcome back, Ladies and Gentlemen, to our coverage of election night. We’re approaching the seven thirty poll closings, as Republican Ronald Reagan and Democrat Jerry Brown are facing off in an epic battle for the White House. A race, that is expected to be very close in the end. Dan, you’re at the dashboard, how are things looking?

Dan Rather: Good evening again from me as well. Walter, indeed, we have more poll closings. And we have the first electoral votes of the night to award to Jerry Brown and Frank Church: We have enough confidence to declare the Democratic ticket the winner in West Virginia. After an interruption in the 1976 Rockefeller landslide, the state in the Upper Appalachian area has returned to its Democratic identity and given Governor Brown the first victory of the night. Or his hist victory, I have to say. There go six electoral votes into his column. Two more poll closings in North Carolina and Ohio. We don’t have a projected winner in either, which is hardly a surprise.

Walter Cronkite: Thank you for that update. We might add that Ronald Reagan is considered the favorite at least in North Carolina. He’s been ahead in Ohio lately, too, though this lead is much less reliable and nothing he can be sure of. The Reagan campaign at least considered this traditional bellwether so important that they held their final event in Columbus, and not in California, the state all eyes are upon later tonight. Because - well- its the largest prize of the night and both are from that states, serving as governors.

Dan Rather: Absolutely. Our reporters at Reagan headquarters who spoke with high ranking surrogates told us they feel pretty good about Ohio, though. The former governor was at least polling well there for most of the campaign season, except for that brief period in September during which Brown was ahead nationwide. Our colleagues on the ground indeed said early signs are pointing to a strong Reagan showing. At least he’s getting the numbers he needs in the southern and central part of the state, while having a decent enough showing in the River Valley and the metro areas. However, these reporters should be treated with extreme caution as it is early. However, a Reagan win in Ohio would be a huge step in the direction of the White House.

Walter Cronkite: It would be, though we actually expect everything to come down to California, where recent polling found a statistical tie at 47% each, though a last minute LA Times poll saw a minor Brown lead by just less than a point. Extremely close. We go to a short break for more. Stay tuned.



Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 30 EV.
Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. (D-CA)/Senator Frank Church (D-ID): 6 EV.
Too early/close to call: 82 EV.
Polls not closed: 420 EV.


8 p.m.

Walter Cronkite: It’s eight o’clock here at the East Coast in our New York City studio. We have several poll closings at this hour, and some of these states can already be called. Dan, would you start with those where we don’t have a winner yet?

Dan Rather: Sure, Walter. And here are the states in which CBS News is not able to confirm a winner: Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Missouri and Texas. In all of these states I just named polls have now closed, but can’t be called as of this hour. We’re hearing that Missouri had some issues with harsh weather around St. Louis, and that poll openings may be extended for an hour in the areas affected. More on that later. And now the states, in which we can make a projection: Jerry Brown has emerged victorious in the states of Massachusetts, a traditional Democratic bastion and home of the Kennedy family, the state of Rhode Island and the District of Columbia. Latter has always voted overwhelmingly Democratic since being permitted to participate in presidential election since 1964. Four years ago, its electoral votes were the only Edmund Muskie could win at all against President Rockefeller.

Walter Cronkite: And now to the states Governor Reagan was successful in: We can confirm his victories in Kansas, Oklahoma, Alabama and Mississippi. And lastly, the state of Tennessee, homestate of Howard Baker, Ronald Reagan’s running mate. So Senator Baker has delivered his homestate to his boss. It looks like we’re indeed seeing large shifts in the South toward the Republican ticket, while the Democratic ticket runs strong in more liberal northern states that solidly voted Republican for the most of the time. Indeed, we may see a complete remake of the map this evening. At least in competitive elections.

Dan Rather: Walter, that perfectly sums up my thoughts. A Southern state we have to watch closely, however, is the state of Georgia. Governor Brown has been doing surprisingly well here in polls after receiving endorsements from several local Democratic politicians such as Governor Busbee and former Governor Jimmy Carter, the 1972 vice presidential nominee, who has emerged as a close advisor to the Brown campaign and is considered a contender for a cabinet position. Wait a moment, I’m just receiving word here that New Hampshire has also been called for Ronald Reagan. That gets him a total of 75 electoral votes for now. Still nearly 200 needed to win the presidency.

Walter Cronkite: We were just talking about the shifts in the South and North East. New Hampshire, however, has traditionally the most conservative state in New England and is pretty much sticking with the Republican ticket today. The situation in Vermont seems different, as we still don’t have winner despite Governor Reagan narrowly leading so far. But with less than 65% counted, we don’t feel confident enough to declare a winner. This state seems to have moved more into the Democratic direction, which may also benefit Senator Patrick Leahy, who's running for reelection to a second term. He has been the only Democrat ever elected to the senate by voters in Vermont. Our data suggests that he's the favorite to keep that seat, but we can't confirm a victory as of now. Looking at our map for the presidency, Ronald Reagan and Howard Baker have taken a strong lead, as you said, though it’s way too early for any prejudgments. Jerry Brown and Frank Church wouldn’t expect to be somewhere different at this point.



Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 75 EV.
Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. (D-CA)/Senator Frank Church (D-ID): 27 EV.
Too early/close to call: 236 EV.
Polls not closed: 200 EV.


CBS Special Report: Controversy over Missouri polling stations emerges



Dan Rather: We briefly talked about issues with voting in the battleground state of Missouri. We turn now to one of our reporters in St. Louis to learn more. Madam, what's going on there?

Reporter: Dan, Walter, a hot controversy arose here within the last hour or so, as several polling places were having issues with access following a thunder storm and severe rain over the previous night. You still see in the background how it’s raining and the streets are wet. We received at least a dozen of reports that roads near polling stations were blocked by trees and branches that fell to the ground or hit buildings. While these barriers were removed within hours, the lines before polling places grew longer and longer. Then we had different reporting from the offices of the governor and the secretary of state over whether voting could resume beyond the original deadline. The Secretary of State confirmed anyone standing in line by regular closing time was able to cast his or her ballot. However, these assurances conflicted with a gubernatorial staffer saying the opposite. This caused a lot confusion here, even among poll workers and the local reporters we're talking to. Four polling stations subsequently closed at orders of local officials, citing the remarks coming out of the governor's office. Since all of them are Republicans, as is Governor Kid Bond, Democratic officials quickly went on the offense and demanded the polls to be opened again. As the areas in question are traditionally more Democratic, a surrogate of the Brown campaign just told me their campaign was considering an ad-hoc lawsuit to get these polling stations opened again. We didn’t receive information whether these polls have reopened yet. It doesn’t look like. There's currently a lot of back and forth going on and we're told that Brown campaign executives have gathered for a meeting in Sacramento and weigh in their options. A spokesman for the Reagan campaign here in St. Louis declined to comment, saying these matters have to be decided by local officials.

Dan Rather: Wow, and that is while we’re talking about a close election that may be decided by a single state. Jerry Brown was leading the polls here recently, albeit by narrow margins. We'll keep an eye on the situation for sure.

Walter Cronkite: And you have a gubernatorial election taking place here as well, don’t you?

Reporter: That’s absolutely correct, Walter, I just wanted to talk about that as well. Indeed, there’s a governor’s race going on simultaneously. It’s open seat determining the successor of two term incumbent Kit Bond, who has governed as a moderate Republican for the last eight years. Unlike the presidential race, it very much looks like the Democrat, Joseph Teasdale, is winning the governorship. He already was the candidate four years ago and narrowly lost to Bond, now seeking to gain the governor's chair again. A spokesman for his campaign just came out and criticized Bond’s office for not leaving the polling stations in question open. However, we don't actually know from Governor Bond himself, as the statement prior was only given by his deputy chief of staff. So the situation here may indeed develop into a controversy between the current governor and his most likely successor. Mr. Teasdale has been a supporter of Jerry Brown and campaigned with his party’s presidential nominee.

Walter Cronkite: That sounds like we’re getting an election controversy here. Thank you for that report. We certainly will talk again later.

Reporter: We certainly will. Thank you both.

Dan Rather: I hope this situation can clarified rather sooner than later. It may actually depend on how the night progresses. In a worst case scenario we have a legal fight over the entire presidency, should Missouri be the deciding state.

Walter Cronkite: I hope that, too, Dan. Now go to a short break before we're back with more. Stay with us.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, this is giving me FL 2000 vibes. Just hope Raygun won't steal the election with this incident in MO.

[President Johnson]

★★★ CBS Election Night Coverage continues. With Walter Cronkite & Dan Rather. ★★★






8.30 p.m.

ARKANSAS for REAGAN

Walter Cronkite: Welcome back, Ladies and Gentlemen, to our coverage of election night. Today is November 4, 1980, and we’re approaching the eight thirty poll closings. Or poll close, I should say, since the only state to do so is Arkansas. Dan, you have more?

Dan Rather: Indeed, Walter, I have. Our network is already confident enough the call this state for Ronald Reagan and Howard Baker. We spoke about shifts in the South in the previous hours, and it clearly seems Governor Reagan has met expectations and carried this state. We can also project that the governor’s race is a flip: Democrat Bill Clinton, long considered a rising star of the party, is going down after two years in office, losing to Republican challenger Frank White. That’s indeed an upset. Not so much the victory of the Republican presidential ticket.

Walter Cronkite: In fact we have seen the Brown campaign largely abandoning a number of Southern states that were considered a Democratic stronghold ten or twenty years ago. During the final weeks of the campaign, they much more focused on states like Missouri and Georgia. They even abandoned Florida and Texas, which have a large number of electoral votes.

Dan Rather: However, I think you need admit that Jerry Brown doesn’t need these states. He badly needs California and a bunch of the Midwestern battlegrounds to get to 270 electoral votes. We know from insider reports that during an internal meeting in early September, Brown and Church insisted to primarily target battleground they feel good about winning. For those of us old enough to remember, Richard Nixon in 1960 ran a 50 state campaign and consequently lost by a close margin. Ever since, strategists felt this was a huge error that may have cost him the presidency. There have been lots of 1960 parallels mentioned and I’m sure the Brown campaign carefully looked at that. As of now, they are trailing in electoral vote count, though that will certainly change once Democratic-leaning states get called.


8.42 p.m.

BREAKING: VIRGINIA called for REAGAN



Walter Cronkite: Alright, I’m hearing that we have a another call to make: According to our sources, the Commonwealth of Virginia is called for Ronald Reagan. Twelve electoral votes for the Republican ticket from Virginia. Dan, your take?

Dan Rather: Well, that doesn’t come as a surprise at all. Out of all the Southern states, Virginia had a remarkably early Republican trend that goes back at least two decades. Mr. Reagan was leading in the polls here, even though the Brown campaign earlier thought to make more inroads. Remember that Brown surprisingly won the Democratic primary in this state on Super Tuesday with quite a strong result. That gave them at least some optimism his brand may appeal to a number of voters and seriously contest the state.

Walter Cronkite: You also need to keep in mind that his primary victory was largely the result of Reubin Askew and Lloyd Bentsen splitting the vote among Southern Democrats. That allowed Governor Brown to come out on top. Nonetheless, we have now called the state for Reagan. His electoral vote total reaches 93 now, close to 100. Brown still at 27.



Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 93 EV.
Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. (D-CA)/Senator Frank Church (D-ID): 27 EV.
Too early/close to call: 224 EV.
Polls not closed: 194 EV.


9 p.m.

BROWN takes NEW YORK’S big electoral prize and MINNESOTA; REAGAN wins MONTAIN STATES



Walter Cronkite: Checking the clock, we see that it’s already nine p.m. Dan, you have some major updates for us with some big electoral prizes?

Dan Rather: I have, Walter. As a couple of new states have their polls closed, we have a bunch of major calls to make: CBS News calls the state of New York and its 41 electoral votes for Jerry Brown. The Empire State is the second biggest prize of the night, after California and its 45 electoral votes. A big win for the Brown campaign, that was always leading in polls here. According to our reports, Brown particular performed well in and around New York City and even parts of Western New York and Long Island. We expect him to carry the state by a double digit margin, perhaps around 16 points. That would match or slightly exceed the polls. So, not a surprise, but important for the Democrats. Furthermore, we can also declare Brown the winner in Minnesota, a longtime Democratic stronghold that narrowly ditched the Democrats four years ago in favor of President Nelson Rockefeller. Nonetheless, we can also make some calls for Ronald Reagan, although these states award fewer electoral votes: Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado and Arizona are in for the Republican ticket. Governor Reagan has now passed the mark of 100 electoral votes. Jerry Brown is at 78. And I just got word that Reagan also carried Louisiana, which is another Southern state that went Republican. The former governor stands at 124 now.

Walter Cronkite: Meanwhile, the Dakotas, Wisconsin and New Mexico are too early to call. All four have closed polls at this hour, too. Wisconsin and South Dakota will certainly be the most interesting to watch. Brown was narrowly ahead in most recent polling, though his leads were too narrow to make a prediction at this time. We have to wait at least an hour or so to know more.


9.13 p.m.

BREAKING: REAGAN secures FLORIDA, NORTH CAROLINA and VERMONT, widens electoral lead



Dan Rather: Alright, hold on for second, guys. I’m just hearing that we have three calls to make from states that closed polls at an earlier hour. So, here are the news: CBS News has gathered enough valid information that we can now project the states of Florida, North Carolina and Vermont for the Republican ticket. Two middle sized and one small state for Ronald Reagan, that brings his electoral count up to 157. That’s still over 110 short of the 270 needed, but a health lead over the Democratic nominee, Jerry Brown, who’s still at 78. Neither of these states were particular important for Brown’s path to the White House. However, it shows that the polls were relative accurate so far and this election will be a nail baiter, if not slightly in Reagan’s favor.

Walter Cronkite: Dan, I would be very careful to describe this race as tilting in Reagan’s favor. All of the states we have in so far are in lockstep with the polls. Most of the states Brown is expected to take aren’t called yet, neither is a true battleground. I don’t think anyone at Brown Headquarters is already suffering from headaches with this map.

Dan Rather: You’re right. I just wanted to say there’s no polling error to Brown’s advantage. I mean, if he took any of the states currently filled in for Republicans, he’d have great reason for optimism. Nonetheless, the Democratic ticket hasn’t lost a pivotal state. Our sources indeed telling us the count in Illinois and shifted in Brown’s favor. Narrowly, but still. No word from Ohio at this point.

Walter Cronkite: Another update from Vermont we just received is that Senator Patrick Leahy is about to win reelection. As presidential ballots are counted first, this race isn’t called yet. Nevertheless, it would be pivotal victory for the Democrats.



Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 157 EV.
Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. (D-CA)/Senator Frank Church (D-ID): 78 EV.
Too early/close to call: 213 EV.
Polls not closed: 90 EV.


Walter Cronkite: We go to a quick break and will be back soon for more. We also hear that there are developments out of Missouri. We will talk to our reporter on the ground again for this. Stay with us.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Surprised Arkansas was called at poll closing . Can only be good news for Reagan

[President Johnson]

★★★ CBS Election Night Coverage continues. With Walter Cronkite & Dan Rather. ★★★






9.31 p.m.

BREAKING: TEXAS and MAINE for REAGAN, DELAWARE for BROWN


Walter Cronkite: As we continue our program, we have three additional calls the make at this hour. One of them concerns one of the largest states in the nation, even though it was just semi-contested. Dan, go ahead.

Dan Rather: A major, although not surprising victory for Ronald Reagan: The state of Texas voted Republican tonight, giving Governor Reagan a big junk of electoral votes. We can see here another trend in a Southern state away from the Democrats. This one must be particularly painful for the Democrats, even though it was never included in Jerry Brown's path to 270. Nonetheless, it's a state Democratic candidates tended to do well except for Eisenhower or Rockefeller landslides. And, of course, it's the homestate of the last Democratic president, Lyndon Johnson, who twice won the Lone Star state in 1964 and 1968.

Walter Cronkite: Nonetheless, we have to remember that Texas turned into a battleground for a while. You mentioned 1964 and 1968, two years the top of the ticket was a Texan who won nationally in either a landslide or at least a healthy margin. 1960 was already very close and Jack Kennedy would have lost without Mr. Johnson on the ticket. In the 1972 election, which was relatively close at the national level, Robert Kennedy just barely held Texas for the Democrats, with a plurality and just over a percentage point. And he was the second vice president of Lyndon Johnson running against a fellow Yorker, Nelson Rockefeller. Another Republican may actually have won Texas back then, especially Ronald Reagan, who has attracted significant support in the 1972 and 1980 primaries and who was always leading polls this time around.

Dan Rather: Good points you're making. We have two more calls: One is from the state of Maine, where counting was relatively slow tonight. Nonetheless, we can now project that Ronald Reagan won Maine. And a small silver lining for Governor Brown: He has carried Delaware. Not a huge price, just three electoral votes, but in a close election even these three may matter in the end. The state was contested to a point and even reelected its Republican governor Pete DuPont, though Jerry Brown has indeed edged out his rival here. Looking at our new map, Ronald Reagan is now ahead by over 100 electoral votes.

Walter Cronkite: That's significant, but not totally unexpected at this point in time. The gap will almost certainly begin to narrow soon. There's hardly a state or place with a severe Brown underperformance. At least not compared to the polls.




Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 187 EV.
Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. (D-CA)/Senator Frank Church (D-ID): 81 EV.
Too early/close to call: 180 EV.
Polls not closed: 90 EV.


CBS Special Report: Gov. Kit Bond defends poll closings in MISSOURI as DEMOCRAT TEASDALE wins seat and ELECTION CONTROVERSY continues



Walter Cronkite: We’re now heading back to Missouri, where the Governor, Republican Kit Bond, finally appeared before the press. Listen in.

Governor Bond: Ladies and Gentlemen: As governor of the state of Missouri it is my constitutional duty to make sure all the laws of the state are faithfully executed. This is particularly a matter of significance when it comes to one of our most sacred duties such as voting. Over the past 24 hours, parts of our state were affected by heavy storms that causes moderate to severe damage on property, particularly in the St. Louis region. In a small number of individual polling places storm damages hindered or delayed smooth access to polling places that caused longer lines than usual. However, thanks to fire departments, police and national guard assistance access to voting places were restored in a matter of few hours. As my office has carefully monitored the situation throughout the day, I have concluded that an extension of poll openings were not necessary to make sure each voter who wanted to was able to cast his or her ballot. We have not observed any incident were voters were returned and denied to execute their fundamental right to vote. Nobody waiting in line at the time of the deadline wasn’t able to vote. Now, let me make this clear: I’m well aware this has been a heated campaign and our state was particularly contested by the two major party candidates. Therefore I urge everyone not to politicize the incident and cast any doubt over the functionality of our system. Instead, let us be proud as Americans we live in a country free of political oppression with free and fair elections. Thank you all, and have a great evening.

Walter Cronkite: That was Missouri Governor Kit Bond that you just saw appearing before the press. The outgoing governor, I have to add. Dan you have more here?

Dan Rather: Yes, Walter. A major development: CBS News confirms that Democrat Joseph Teasdale was been elected governor of Missouri. The state elects its governor simultaneously to the presidency for a four year term. Mr. Teasdale, Governor-elect Teasdale I should say now, already attempted to win this seat in 1976, but narrowly lost to Bond who wasn’t on the ballot anymore today, having served eight years in that position. We don’t know yet how the governor-elect will react to Governor Bond’s statement after he criticized statements from Bond’s office to close polls on time regardless of storm damages.

Walter Cronkite: I want to bring in our reporters from St. Louis again. Madam, you just heard what the governor has said. Do we have any reactions yet?

Reporter: Walter, Dan, we don’t have official reactions yet. However, Governor Bond indeed just confirmed the statements made by his office earlier today. That he indeed rejected calls to extend openings of polling places. Now it is interesting that the governor said nobody waiting in line at eight o’clock EST was rejected to cast a ballot. Our reporters confirm that, and the Democrats don’t even claim otherwise. What Democratic officials and campaign associates tell us is that storm damages prevented at least several hundred voters to be at polling places in time. Anyone arriving just minutes late was either turned away - in rare cases I must add - or was only allowed to vote through provisional ballots that may or may not be counted in the end. A tricky question the state government or even courts have to answer soon. CBS has spoken to at least twelve people in three districts who backed these news up. And here it gets political now: All three St. Louis districts we’re talking about are considered Democratic strongholds or at least Democratic-leaning. What we can…

Walter Cronkite: I’m sorry, I have to interrupt here. I’m hearing the governor-elect gives a statement. Thank you for that great reporting, we will talk again later. Let’s get to the governor-elect.



Governor-elect Teasdale: Fellow Missourians, ladies and gentlemen, distinguished members of the press: Let me begin by thanking the voters of our state for their trust and confidence in me to be the next governor of Missouri. I’m honored to serve you as governor for the coming four years and work for a better Missouri every single day. Circumstances related to voting unfortunately deserve my attention right away. As all of you know, a storm has affected parts of our state and caused damages on property and trees. In recent hours concerning reports reached me that indicated hundreds of voters arriving late at polling places were either turned away or just able to cast provisonal ballots. Let me be clear: Any provisional ballots cast under these circumstances must count. I’m confused these matters were not addressed by the outgoing governor or members of his administration, although they urgently deserve attention of the governor. In his statement tonight, the governor confirmed not a single voter was turned away waiting in lines at poll closing time. I’m relieved this is the case as we have no reason to doubt his word. However, I’m still waiting for a statement to the reports people arriving minutes late were rejected to execute their fundamental rights or may not know whether their provisional ballots is counted. Under such extraordinary circumstances, nobody arriving late less than an half hour should be turned away or having his vote rejected on that basis. No one! Many of these people are working in fulltime jobs or even two jobs and don’t have the opportunity to wait for long hours in the immediate aftermath of a storm. All these reports need careful examination to make sure each voter’s rights are protected. The nation is watching. The world is watching, my friends. Regardless of partisan affiliation or voting preferences. Free and fair elections are the essence of our democracy, and that democracy lives from the trust and confidence of its people. Elected officials, until their final day in office, have to live up to these ideals that go well beyond partisan politics. Despite our differences, I have never questioned the governor’s commitment to these values. Nonetheless, I’m calling upon the governor to transparently clarify the matters at stake here. I’m looking forward to a close cooperation with the governor and his office and ensure a smooth transition of power. Thank you all very much.

Walter Cronkite: That was Governor-elect Joseph Teasdale of Missouri, addressing the voting controversy. Dan, what’s your take on his words?

Dan Rather: Well, that was a pretty strong statement. While civilized and friendly in tone, you can definitely hear out criticism of Governor Bond’s handling of the situation. Of course the governor-elect is a professional who carefully weighs his words, it’s undeniable, however, that he’s clearly seeing this as a treat to Jerry Brown’s chances in Missouri. However, the governor-elect can't do much more than to comment at this point. The executive power rests with the sitting governor, whose term is expiring in January.

Walter Cronkite: That pretty much sums up my thoughts. I think the major question or potential black cloud hanging over this are the provisional ballots. Will these be officially counted? Either state authorities or courts will have to decide whether these will be included in the final count or not. Where are we at this hour in Missouri?

Dan Rather: Here are the numbers, Walter. About 87% are counted and it’s very close. Ronald Reagan is ahead, but most outstanding ballots are in Democratic-leaning areas. We expect his lead to decrease as more votes come in.


MISSOURI (87% in)
Ronald Reagan (R)… 925,846 (50.68%)
Edmund G. Brown Jr. (D)… 891,318 (48.79%)


Dan Rather: As you can see, the candidates are separated by little more than 34,000 votes or less than two percentage points. Less than an hour ago, Reagan’s lead was well over 100,000. So his advantage has dramatically shrunk as votes came in from St. Louis precincts and other Democratic strongholds in Northern parts of the state. Our estimations see most of the outstanding votes in these areas as well, although a bunch of Republican-leaning districts haven’t reported all their results yet. The outstanding Democrats districts will almost certainly outweigh them nonetheless. As we speak, you certainly can’t make reliable prediction who ends up winning the state and its 12 electoral votes. My guess is that the final margin will be within 20,000 votes in either direction. Possibly closer to the 10,000 mark. Or even fewer. And that may get us back to the question of the provisional ballots. If - and it's still a big if - the state is that close these make a difference? It will be a long night, Walter.

Walter Cronkite: Perhaps a long week, Walter. Who knows? We will keep in touch with the situation in Missouri.


9.49 p.m.

BREAKING: BROWN wins MICHIGAN and MARYLAND


Walter Cronkite: Alright, earlier I spoke about the electoral gap narrowing as the night progresses. Dan, you have something for us?

Dan Rather: I have, Walter. CBS News can now project that Jerry Brown is the winner in Maryland. It seems like he has done pretty well here, especially in and around Baltimore, where his campaign heavily targeted voters of color. We have seen a robust turnout in these communities that we even didn't witness for Robert Kennedy back in 1972. Turnout there is at least comparable to Johnson 1968. With 90% of the vote in, Jerry Brown is leading by eight points statewide. After a delay, a large junk of votes were now included in the most recent update from state officials and give is confidence in Brown's victory. And another, even more significant victory: Jerry Brown won the state of Michigan, homestate of President Gerald Ford. A state, Republicans hoped to defend with the president's personal popularity in his home turf, but apparently Michigan voters weren't ready to give Governor Reagan their confidence. A big win for the Democras.

Walter Cronkite: Indeed, I'm sure a lot of sighs of relief are going through the Brown campaign right now. This was a needed win for their candidate. And he has delivered. Brown is still trailing in the electoral count, but the gap got smaller. Having passed 100 electoral votes, he's now at 112. Reagan ahead at 187. 200 is in sight for him. We go to short break and turn right afterwards.




Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 187 EV.
Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. (D-CA)/Senator Frank Church (D-ID): 112 EV.
Too early/close to call: 149 EV.
Polls not closed: 90 EV.